AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2010

…SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY…

.UPDATE…LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.

DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING…SO THE ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED TAME. HAVE BOOSTED THE POPS FOR THE MORNING FOR SOUTH
GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NORTHEAST…EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH POSSIBLY SOME
HEATING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. THE ACTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AS THIS HAPPENS…THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. OF SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS…WHICH ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE. IF THESE VALUES DO NOT MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS…INSTABILITY COULD BE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BY
TONIGHT…

WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH THE SEVERE FOCUS
SHIFTING TO DAMAGING WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
INTO THE BIG BEND AND SOUTH GEORGIA.

&&

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