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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 307 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS SPINNING OVER MS SAT AND SUN HAS OPENED UP AND IS NOW A VORT CENTER LIFTING NEWD ACROSS TN TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...A BROAD TROUGH STILL EXITS ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... THE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF HAS DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NOW LEFT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E OF THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE ERN GULF. LOW OT MID LEVEL WINDS OFF THE GULF ARE CONTINUING TO PULL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NNE. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RIDGE E OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AIR IN OFF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOS WERE ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE CLIMO AND CONFIDENCE POP GRIDS. FOR THIS EVENING...REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE MAINLY MIGRATED TO OUR NRN ZONES WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FL ZONES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS AND IMPACT THE COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR TUE...SOME DRIER MID LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES AND THE SERN AREAS INCLUDING THE ERN FL BIG BEND AND S CENTRAL GA. CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED THERE (30-40) WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE NW. A FEW OF THE FAVORED SEA BREEZE AREAS WILL SEE LOW END LIKELY. TUE NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR POP TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOR WED...WE WILL STILL BE IN A FAVORABLE SEA BREEZE REGIME 4 WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES. WE SHOW A MORE PURELY SEA BREEZE CLIMO POP WITH LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...BUT EXTEND THAT UP INTO SE AL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES IN THAT AREA. WED NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS. AS FOR TEMPS...MIN TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 349 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ...INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND... THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE REX BLOCK THAT WAS IN PLACE YESTERDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS BROKEN DOWN. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME...WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...THAT WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH AROUND THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. && .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT A BIT MORE TODAY VS YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO PULL BACK THE EVENING POPS TO SILENT 10...BUT THE VIS SAT DOES SHOW SOME AGITATED TOWERING CU SO WILL LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR NOW. FOR FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE SEABREEZE IS ALLOWED TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. OUR LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WENT WITH 30 POPS INLAND. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY (60 PERCENT) RANGE FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LOCALLY RUN CONFIDENCE GRIDS ALSO SHOW POPS QUITE HIGH ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM... (MODIFIED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HANGS MOISTURE AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...SO INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND INLAND MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
Hurricane projections are meant to be taken with a grain of salt. However, all of the reputable forecasters that issue annual hurricane forecasts, are saying that the 2010 hurricane season will be an exceptionally active year in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperatures are rising quickly, and the El Nino is weakening significantly. With that being said, I think the goal of these projections is to be a a general assessment of the level of activity in the Atlantic, and how much attention should be paid to it. These numbers do not mean the amount of storms that will reach landfall, but they do help us realize how busy the atlantic basin will be based on certain criteria such as water vapor, sea surface temperature, and lack of upper level wind shear. What everyone must remember, is that it only takes ONE storm to affect you, which is why EVERYONE in a hurricane prone area needs to be prepared…given these predictions, especially so this year. Here are the 2010 predictions
William Gray & Philip Klotzbach out of Colorado State University
11-16 Named Storms (At least Tropical Storm Strength)
3-7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
Gray & Klotzbach also say there is a 69% chance that a storm will hit the United States Coastline. Over the last Century, the average for that has been 52%. By their predictions, there is a 45% chance the United States East Coast including the Florida Peninsula, compared to an average of 30% over the past hundred years, and a 44% chance that from Brownsville to the Florida Panhandle a storm will strike, compared to 30% average over the last hundred years.
NOAA’s Forecast (note the wide range!)
14-23 named storms
3-5 major hurricanes
Pull out your telescope!
Tonight ( Wednesday, May 26th) you may be able to spot Schroter’s Valley, the largest rille on the Moon’s surface. Rilles are long, narrow channels that cut across the surface of the Moon. The term “rille” comes from the German word for “groove.”
Video from Saturday May 22, 2010
Video from Monday May 24, 2010
NOTE: Read the last paragraph carefully… Hurricane Season officially starts June 1st.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 900 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... DURING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTERACTING WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AND A LATE DEVELOPING GULF AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCD OUTFLOWS OVER N FL HELPED TO ENHANCE PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER FL. BY MID-EVE THEY BEGAN TO PROPAGATE ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG COAST AND INTO WATER KICKING OFF SMALL HAIL. BY 830 PM EDT...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TAPERING OFF AND RELEGATED MAINLY TO WATER. AT UPPER LEVELS... THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH OVR THE NRN ROCKIES INTO DESERT SW WITH A SHORTWAVE EVOLVING WITHIN THE BASE OF TROUGH...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER WRN ATLC WITH CLOSED LOW JUST OFF SC. IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW. DURING MON AFTN AND EARLY EVE...ONE WEAK H5 VORT LOBE ROTATED AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW INTERACTING WITH SEA BREEZE. VIA NLY STEERING FLOW...THIS PINNED SEABREEZE (AND CONVECTION) NEAR THE APALACHEE BAY COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. THIS BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS TO THIS AREA. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS..WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO HIGH PLAINS WITH ABOVE SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND THEN INTO CO BY LATE TUES AFTN. IN RESPONSE ERN RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED ENE AND WRN ATLC LOW NUDGED FURTHER EWD. SO ON TUES AFTN...ERN HALF OF LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN A REASONABLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR ENHANCED UPPER DYNAMICS... COUPLED WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FRONT WEDGED THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE ERN THIRD OF CWA. ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH PASSING THRU NE STATES WILL ALLOW SC LOW TO MOVE FURTHER EWD PLACING LOCAL AREA ON THE DRY SIDE ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING WILL WEDGE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS FURTHER AWAY FROM LOW...LOW TEMPORARILY STALLS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER WEDNESDAY (SEE SURFACE REFLECTION BELOW) BEFORE ADVANCING FARTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL DECREASING POPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT. AT LOWER LEVELS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WAS CREATING A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO N FL TO WHERE A W-E BACK DOOR FRONT WAS LOCATED VCNTY OF I-10 CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE INTO ATLC. OF NOTE IS THAT THE ABOVE LOW IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC FOR POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT NW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z THU BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST UPDATE HOWEVER SHOWS LOW TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT HAVE DIMINISHED.
EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010 UPDATED TO ADD ECP DATA FOR MAY 24. ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES: HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z) 24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z) ASOS REPORTS HIGH LOW 12HR 24HR PCPN PCPN ALBANY :ABY 92 67 0.00 0.00 APALACHICOLA :AAF 91 70 T T CROSS CITY :CTY 89 66 0.58 0.58 DOTHAN :DHN 97 70 0.00 0.00 MARIANNA :MAI 96 M 0.00 0.00 PANAMA CITY INTNL :ECP 97 70 0.00 0.00 PERRY :40J 91 69 0.00 0.00 TALLAHASSEE :TLH 96 66 0.00 0.00 VALDOSTA :VLD 90 66 0.00 0.00
Temperatures this past Saturday & Sunday were well above average around the Southeast. We reached 96 on Sunday, 2 degrees away from the record of 98. Panama City reached 91, which broke the recod of 87 in 2004. Montgomery tied the record of 95, set in 2000, and Huntsville broke a record at 95.
We expect to be around 94 again today, with increased clouds and afternoon showers holding us to the upper 80’s on Tuesday.
On this day in history in 2004..a hailstone 6″ in diameter, with a 16.5″ circumference fell from a thunderstorm in Meadville, Missouri!
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was cancelled at 7 pm.
Isolated storms still possible west of Hwy 231 in Coffee, Dale and Geneva counties for the next few hours.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 7pm CDT for the counties highlighted above. With the disturbance to the north of us, plenty of warmth, and the seabreeze this afternoon, be aware of quickly changing conditions close to you later today. Hail and strong winds look to be the biggest concern right now.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1105 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 ...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... .UPDATE... SPC RECENTLY PLACED MOST OF SWRN GA AND SERN AL...AND FAR NERN COUNTIES IN THE FL BIG BEND UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING. TLH SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT VALUES OF 1.21 INCHES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THIS MOIST AIR MASS HAS INCREASED SB CAPE SIGNIFICANTLY ...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE IN THE FAR ERN COUNTIES. MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KICK OFF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST DUE WEAK INHIBITION...AND WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING STORMS FIRING UP AROUND RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PLACEMENT OF STORMS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THIS LEADS TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OCCURRING ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING OF MOST CONCERN. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP POPS IN EASTERN PORTION OF CWA. CURRENTLY...VIS SATELLITE SHOWING FOG QUICKLY LIFTING IN THE WRN ZONES...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NOW. MOISTURE IN LOWEST LEVELS WILL CAUSE CU FIELD TO POP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEA BREEZE WILL QUICKLY SURGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR IN FASHION TO YESTERDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH MID 90S INLAND AND ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTLINE. ALREADY IN MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO NORTH OF OUR REGION IN MIDDLE AL...WHICH IS NOT OF CONCERN NOW BUT MAY BE OF CONCERN IN A FEW HOURS. && .AVIATION... SCT-BKN CU FIELD AROUND 5 KFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN SITES (ABY/DHN) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND AROUND THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... KICKING UP HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COASTLINE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 314 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO THE E OVER THE ERN STATES. A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS WORKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS AL. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED MAINTAIN AN MCS OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM IT INTO SERN AL AND SRN GA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN. LOW TO MID LEVEL MEAN VECTOR WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW TODAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK QG FORCING IN THE FORM OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DPVA WILL WORK WITH THE RETREATING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GENERALLY FOUND THE MOS NUMBERS TO BE TOO LOW AND BASED THE FORECAST ON A COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY AND THE 12-KM WRF SOLUTION. THE CONFIDENCE GRIDS GAVE US A GOOD START. OUR POPS RANGE FROM 50 OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES AND S CENTRAL GA TO 30 FURTHER SW. THE LOWEST POPS OF 20 OR LESS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR GA ZONES. LOCAL CONFIDENCE GRIDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A 20 PERCENT CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER SOME OF OUR GA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE DAY-1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC DOES NOT EXTEND THAT FAR S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND AREAS PEAKING IN THE LOW 90S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. FOR SAT... UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. 1000-700 MB FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NW. STILL FEEL THAT MOS POPS ARE TOO LOW AND WILL INCLUDE 20 POPS OVER OUR FL AND S CENTRAL GA ZONES. LOOK FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL GET EVEN HOTTER WITH MOST INLAND AREAS REACHING THE MID 90S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ON SUN. .LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE STATES CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A LARGE UPPER LOW MIGRATING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON EARLY NEXT WEEK...POPS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT INTO THE EXTENDED WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS. && .MARINE...TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PEAK SPEEDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WRF ALSO INDICATES A WEAK SURGE OVER THE ERN WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SAT. IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS DUE TO FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SCT-BKN CU FIELD AROUND 5 KFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN SITES (ABY/DHN) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. WILL INSERT TEMPO GROUPS WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND AROUND THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT.
Contrary to what you may have heard earlier, the Coast Guard says the tar balls found off Key West aren’t linked to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
A report released Wednesday says tests show the tar balls don’t match the type of oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill. The source of the tar balls isn’t known. Tar balls can occur naturally or come from other sources such as ships.
Twenty were found Monday and several others Tuesday.
Government scientists who surveyed the Gulf on Tuesday said tendrils of light oil were near or already in a powerful current that could take it to Florida. The loop current circulates in the Gulf and takes water south to the Florida Keys and the Gulf Stream. But most oil remains dozens of miles away from the current.
This was shot on March 16, 2010 Check out the size of the splashes on the pool!
**Disclaimer: There is a bit of mildly offensive language in this video, but no curse words.””
Oil spill: Do Key West tar balls mean oil is now in Gulf of Mexico’s Loop Current?
But, if they are from the BP spill, it could be a sign one of Florida’s nightmares is coming true.
The blobs came ashore at the rate of about three an hour, all day long Monday. It was worst around high tide. The balls of tar in Key West ranged from three to eight inches across.
Scientists have said the flattened globs of tar are probably how oil from the BP spill would look if it washed up in Florida.
However, the Coast Guard in Key West says it’s not equipped to tell for sure where the balls originated. Samples have been sent to a lab for testing.
In the same way that different brands of bottled water have slightly different tastes because of trace chemicals, oil has different chemical markers depending on where it came out of the earth.
Testing will reveal whether the Key West tar balls came from the site of BP’s Deepwater Horizon oil rig, or from another source such as illegal oil dumped from a ship or natural sites in the seafloor where oil seeps up from underground.
Meanwhile, scientists are debating what these small blobs mean for the the big picture.
“Some of the trajectory models are actually showing that the oil will begin to make a move over the next couple of days,” said the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pablo Santos.
“If that were to happen, then we could potentially be seeing effects somewhere in south Florida in a week or beyond a week. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Just a possibility.”
The U.S. Coast Guard also says the oil’s not headed to Florida in a major way — yet.
But, our local folks disagree.
Just back from an expedition to study the spill, oceanographers from the University of South Florida say a dire forecast for our state is becoming reality.
USF’s computer models show the oil spill has now gotten sucked into the Loop Current. That underwater conveyor belt is likely to carry spilled oil near or through the Florida Keys, then north along Florida’s Atlantic coast.
It appears the Tampa Bay area is in the clear for the foreseeable future. But how much oil will wash ashore in the next several weeks elsewhere in Florida? The researchers with USF’s Marine Science program say that is still much too hard to predict.
A very interesting story interviewing two broadcast meteorologists on opposite sides of the global warming debate…
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 594 DM RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CI/CS CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU. WITH RIDGING OVER OUR AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS...THE WX REMAINS TRANQUIL...AT LEAST FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE CI/CS HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY RIGHT AT OR A BIT BELOW 90 FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER TIME AS WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(PREVIOUS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TOWARD DEVELOPING A MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. POPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
The Panama City Beach view is looking west along beautiful Panama City Beach just off Thomas Drive. From the roof of the Spinnaker Beach Club. The camera is almost 40 feet above the ground.