AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A
594 DM RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CI/CS
CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CU. WITH RIDGING OVER OUR AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVELS...THE WX REMAINS TRANQUIL...AT LEAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE
CI/CS HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY RIGHT AT OR A BIT BELOW
90 FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER TIME AS WE COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
SUNDAY VS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(PREVIOUS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN TOWARD DEVELOPING A MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. POPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE SHORT
WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN TREND BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.  THESE GENERAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
About these ads