AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1105 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
SPC RECENTLY PLACED MOST OF SWRN GA AND SERN AL...AND FAR NERN
COUNTIES IN THE FL BIG BEND UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY GOOD
INSTABILITY CAN BE SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING. TLH SOUNDING
SHOWS PWAT VALUES OF 1.21 INCHES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT. THIS MOIST AIR MASS HAS INCREASED SB CAPE SIGNIFICANTLY
...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE IN THE
FAR ERN COUNTIES. MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KICK OFF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST DUE WEAK INHIBITION...AND
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LOCAL WRF MODEL
SHOWING STORMS FIRING UP AROUND RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PLACEMENT OF STORMS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SEA BREEZE. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THIS LEADS TO STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OCCURRING ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING OF MOST
CONCERN. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP POPS IN EASTERN PORTION OF CWA.

CURRENTLY...VIS SATELLITE SHOWING FOG QUICKLY LIFTING IN THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NOW. MOISTURE
IN LOWEST LEVELS WILL CAUSE CU FIELD TO POP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SEA BREEZE WILL QUICKLY SURGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR
IN FASHION TO YESTERDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH MID 90S INLAND AND
ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTLINE. ALREADY IN MID 80S
ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO NORTH OF OUR
REGION IN MIDDLE AL...WHICH IS NOT OF CONCERN NOW BUT MAY BE OF
CONCERN IN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN CU FIELD AROUND 5 KFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN SITES (ABY/DHN) THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH. INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND
AROUND THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... KICKING UP HIGHER WINDS
NEAR THE COASTLINE.

About these ads