NOTE: Read the last paragraph carefully… Hurricane Season officially starts June 1st.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DURING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AND A LATE DEVELOPING GULF
AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCD OUTFLOWS OVER N FL HELPED TO
ENHANCE PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER FL. BY MID-EVE THEY BEGAN
TO PROPAGATE ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG COAST
AND INTO WATER KICKING OFF SMALL HAIL. BY 830 PM EDT...WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
TAPERING OFF AND RELEGATED MAINLY TO WATER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...A
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH OVR THE NRN ROCKIES INTO DESERT
SW WITH A SHORTWAVE EVOLVING WITHIN THE BASE OF TROUGH...A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER WRN ATLC
WITH CLOSED LOW JUST OFF SC. IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW. DURING MON AFTN AND EARLY EVE...ONE WEAK H5 VORT LOBE ROTATED
AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW INTERACTING WITH SEA BREEZE. VIA
NLY STEERING FLOW...THIS PINNED SEABREEZE (AND CONVECTION) NEAR THE
APALACHEE BAY COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. THIS BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS
TO THIS AREA.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS..WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS WITH ABOVE SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND THEN
INTO CO BY LATE TUES AFTN. IN RESPONSE ERN RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED ENE
AND WRN ATLC LOW NUDGED FURTHER EWD. SO ON TUES AFTN...ERN HALF OF
LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN A REASONABLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR ENHANCED UPPER
DYNAMICS... COUPLED WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
FRONT WEDGED THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE
FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE ERN THIRD OF CWA.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH PASSING THRU NE STATES WILL ALLOW SC LOW
TO MOVE FURTHER EWD PLACING LOCAL AREA ON THE DRY SIDE ALLOWING WEAK
RIDGING WILL WEDGE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THAT AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS FURTHER AWAY FROM LOW...LOW
TEMPORARILY STALLS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER WEDNESDAY (SEE
SURFACE REFLECTION BELOW) BEFORE ADVANCING FARTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL DECREASING
POPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WAS CREATING
A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO N FL TO WHERE A
W-E BACK DOOR FRONT WAS LOCATED VCNTY OF I-10 CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING
OFFSHORE INTO ATLC.

OF NOTE IS THAT THE ABOVE LOW IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC FOR
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT NW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z THU BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST UPDATE HOWEVER SHOWS LOW TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND PROSPECTS
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAVE DIMINISHED.
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