Hurricane projections are meant to be taken with a grain of salt. However, all of the reputable forecasters that issue annual hurricane forecasts, are saying that the 2010 hurricane season will be an exceptionally active year in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperatures are rising quickly, and the El Nino is weakening significantly. With that being said, I think the goal of these projections is to be a a general assessment of the level of activity in the Atlantic, and how much attention should be paid to it. These numbers do not mean the amount of storms that will reach landfall, but they do help us realize how busy the atlantic basin will be based on certain criteria such as water vapor, sea surface temperature, and lack of upper level wind shear. What everyone must remember, is that it only takes ONE storm to affect you, which is why EVERYONE in a hurricane prone area needs to be prepared…given these predictions, especially so this year. Here are the 2010 predictions
William Gray & Philip Klotzbach out of Colorado State University
11-16 Named Storms (At least Tropical Storm Strength)
3-7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
Gray & Klotzbach also say there is a 69% chance that a storm will hit the United States Coastline. Over the last Century, the average for that has been 52%. By their predictions, there is a 45% chance the United States East Coast including the Florida Peninsula, compared to an average of 30% over the past hundred years, and a 44% chance that from Brownsville to the Florida Panhandle a storm will strike, compared to 30% average over the last hundred years.
NOAA’s Forecast (note the wide range!)
14-23 named storms
3-5 major hurricanes