AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
307 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS SPINNING OVER MS SAT AND SUN HAS
OPENED UP AND IS NOW A VORT CENTER LIFTING NEWD ACROSS TN TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...A BROAD TROUGH STILL EXITS ACROSS THE
SERN STATES AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...
THE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF HAS DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NOW LEFT WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E OF THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE ERN GULF. LOW
OT MID LEVEL WINDS OFF THE GULF ARE CONTINUING TO PULL MOISTURE NWD
FROM THE GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RIDGE E OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AIR IN OFF THE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOS WERE ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CLIMO AND CONFIDENCE POP GRIDS. FOR THIS EVENING...REMNANT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE MAINLY MIGRATED TO OUR NRN ZONES WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FL ZONES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS AND IMPACT THE COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR
TUE...SOME DRIER MID LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
MARINE ZONES AND THE SERN AREAS INCLUDING THE ERN FL BIG BEND AND S
CENTRAL GA. CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED THERE (30-40)
WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE NW. A FEW OF THE FAVORED SEA BREEZE AREAS
WILL SEE LOW END LIKELY. TUE NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR POP TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOR WED...WE WILL STILL BE IN A FAVORABLE SEA
BREEZE REGIME 4 WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL
THETA-E WILL INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES. WE SHOW A MORE PURELY SEA
BREEZE CLIMO POP WITH LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...BUT EXTEND THAT UP INTO SE AL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PROFILES IN THAT AREA. WED NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR TWO NIGHTS. AS FOR TEMPS...MIN TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL.
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