BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED....AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOMETIME
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
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