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WWUS72 KTAE 311903
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-010000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0004.100801T1700Z-100801T2100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-100731T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…FREEPORT… SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…
KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 /203 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/

A Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Until 7 PM EDT /6 PM Cdt/
This Evening…

…a heat advisory is in effect from 1 PM EDT /noon cdt/ to 5 pm EDT /4 PM cdt/ sunday…

strong upper level ridging remains anchored across the
southeastern united states and will bring another very hot day to the region on sunday. abundant low level humidity will combine with afternoon highs 97 to 100 degrees to produce dangerous heat
indices between 107 and 112 degrees. the oppressive heat and humidity will persist for the next several days and future heat advisories will be possible.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices reaching or exceeding 110 degrees is expected, generally within the next 24 hours. these high heat indices will create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. children, the elderly, and people with chronic ailments are usually the first to suffer from the heat. heat exhaustion, cramps, or in extreme cases, deadly
heat stroke, can result from prolonged exposure to these
conditions. take extra breaks if necessary. drink plenty of
water, stay out of the sun, in an air-conditioned room if
possible.

NOAA’s National Climate Extremes Committee, responsible for validating national weather records, has declared a hailstone found last week in Vivian, S.D., to be the largest in diameter and heaviest ever recovered in the United States.

Found after a July 23, 2010, severe thunderstorm by Vivian resident Les Scott, the hailstone is 8.0 inches in diameter and weighs 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches.

These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970. They also surpass the record for diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. The Aurora hailstone still holds the record for circumference of 18.75 inches.

“I’m just glad nobody got hurt and hope the town will recover soon,” Scott said.

David Hintz, warning coordination meteorologist at NOAA’s Aberdeen weather forecast office said a local power outage likely led to the hailstone melting some before it could be measured.

“Mr. Scott told me the area was littered with large hailstones and the largest had a greater diameter when he first found it. He immediately stored it and several others in his freezer, but a power outage caused some melting.”

After getting Hintz’ notice of a possible record hailstone, personnel at National Weather Service Central Region headquarters in Kansas City, Mo., requested activation of the National Climatic Extremes Committee to examine and judge Scott’s hailstone. Personnel from the Aberdeen office traveled to Vivian to measure and weigh the hailstone, and then turned their findings over to the three-person committee. After a thorough review of the facts, committee members certified its record-breaking status.

Information about the National Climatic Extremes Committee and existing weather records may be found at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/ncec.

Over the last few weeks I’ve had lots of folks tell me they didn’t see any oil or tarballs while they were visiting the Gulf Coast.  They also said they didn’t see many visitors!

If you have some friends that don’t live around here – and who have hesitated to take a beach vacation this year – make sure they know the truth.

Beautiful beaches… Not being overrun by tourists…  Now’s the time to go!

Thanks to Bob W. for these great, oil-free pictures from this week at Orange Beach.

WWUS72 KTAE 310753
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-312300-
/O.EXT.KTAE.HT.Y.0003.100731T1600Z-100731T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…FREEPORT… SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…
KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 /253 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/

Heat Advisory now In Effect From noon EDT /11 AM Cdt/ Today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM Cdt/ This Evening…

strong upper level ridging across the southeastern united states will bring another very hot day to the region. abundant low level humidity will combine with afternoon highs around 100 degrees to produce dangerous heat indices between 108 and 112 degrees today. the oppressive heat and humidity will persist for the next several days and future heat advisories will be possible.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices reaching or exceeding 110 degrees is expected, generally within the next 24 hours. these high heat indices will create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. children, the elderly, and people with chronic ailments are usually the first to suffer from the heat. heat exhaustion, cramps, or in extreme cases, deadly
heat stroke, can result from prolonged exposure to these
conditions. take extra breaks if necessary. drink plenty of
water, stay out of the sun, in an air-conditioned room if
possible.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON SATURDAY
AND ALLOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
ENHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL STILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC LEVEL FEATURE WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HEAD BACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...GIVING US LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF FROM THIS CURRENT
PROLONGED HEAT WAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...WITH THESE
VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AND HOLD OFF FOR SUNDAY
AT THE PRESENT TIME.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE E COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING
AWAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL
STATES TO BUILD EWD ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
SIZZLING FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH POPS BELOW NORMAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH 100 DEGREES ON MON OR TUE. BY
WED...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE W ONCE AGAIN AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NERN STATES. THERE IS ALSO AN INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO THAT A THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OUT IN THE ERN ATLANTIC
COULD BE APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS OR FL BY THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SE BY FRI WITH A
CORRESPONDING SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS. EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLIGHT.

Dothan’s 100 degrees on Friday broke the old record high of 99 set in 1981. It was the 3rd time this year with a temperature of 100 or higher.

Tallahassee also set a new record when they reported 103, breaking the old record of 102 degrees in 1986.

Marianna reported the highest temperature around the area Friday afternoon when they topped out at 104 degrees!

Here’s a look at some of the afternoon highs from around the region:

:  STATION          ID     HI     LO     PCPN
:DOTHAN            :DHN    100  / 78   / 0.00
:MONTGOMERY        :MGM    98   / 74   / 0.67
:TROY              :TOI    100  / 73   / 0.00
:ALBANY            :ABY    103  / 73   / 0.05
:COLUMBUS          :CSG    102  / 79   / 0.00
:VALDOSTA          :VLD    100  / 76   / 0.00
:PANAMA CITY       :ECP    101  / 77   / 0.00
:PENSACOLA         :PNS     98  / 78   / 0.13
:TALLAHASSEE       :TLH    103  / 78   / 0.00
 

WWUS72 KTAE 301904
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
304 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-302300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0003.100731T1800Z-100731T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100730T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…FREEPORT… SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…
KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
304 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010 /204 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

A Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Until 7 PM EDT /6 PM Cdt/
This Evening…

…a heat advisory is now in effect from 2 PM EDT /1 PM cdt/ to 6 PM EDT /5 PM cdt/ saturday…

strong upper level ridging will keep a nearly stagnant airmass in place across the southeastern united states. afternoon highs around 100 degrees combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70S will create dangerous heat indices around 110 degrees for the remainder of this afternoon, with some locations reaching values between 110 and 113 degrees on saturday. also, with little change expected for the remainder of the weekend, it is very likely that a good portion of the region will require another heat advisory on sunday as well.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices reaching or exceeding 110 degrees is expected, generally within the next 24 hours. these high heat indices will create a situation in which heat illnesses are more likely, especially if extra care is not taken. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

There are currently two active tropical waves in the Atlantic that show possible signs of development in the next 5-7 days. Remember, the peak month of hurricane is September, and the fact that we have already had a hurricane so early is somewhat unually early!  Given SST’s and now the increasing thunderstorm development in the Atlantic, I believe we will see Colin, the third named storm of the season by the end of next week….

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER…A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…20
PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

WWUS72 KTAE 291902
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-301200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0002.100730T1800Z-100730T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…FREEPORT… SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…
KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
302 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010 /202 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

A Heat Advisory is In Effect From 2 PM EDT /1 PM Cdt/ to 7 Pm EDT /6 PM Cdt/ Friday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a heat advisory, which is in effect from 2 PM EDT /1 PM cdt/ to 7 pm EDT /6 PM cdt/ friday.

a large ridge of high pressure will continue to keep a very hot airmass trapped in place across the deep south. with winds
expected to become more southerly on friday and transport more gulf moisture into the region, afternoon heat indices will be higher than the last few days. heat index values will peak in excess of 110 degrees friday afternoon, especially in areas that stay rain free all day.

hot conditions are expected to continue into saturday and
additional heat advisories may be issued as needed.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices exceeding 110 degrees is expected, generally within the next 24 hours. these high heat indices will create a situation in which heat illnesses are more likely, especially if extra care is not taken. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

  

   I am walking out on a limb here with voicing my opinions on the climate debate, but I do want to express them because within the meteorological community, I know I am not alone in them. Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi hit the nail on the head saying “NOAA saying the planet is warmer than it ever has been recorded and that it continues to warm is like measuring on a bathroom scale versus a doctors scale.” What he meant by this is that sometimes scientists are so eager to find patterns and predict trends to refute or support such vast claims as global warming, that they tend to only look at the surface, the finite data, without looking at the bigger picture. Human history is incredibly fallible, and our means to report climatological data are too, and have changed a lot over the past several hundreds of years. In addition to lack of data and discrepancy within data, what is going to happen when things cool off down the road? For instance, many of the fingers being pointed towards global warming are patterns that have come and gone and come again. Saying a strong hurricane season may be caused by global warming is the equivalent to saying  the earth’s tectonic plates movement which have caused numerous earthquakes has been brought on by human action. This is simply not so. The difference to me  is, and which is why it is so easy to point extreme weather phenomina as the red flag of Global Warming is, they happen in shorter cycles. We were not around to record the movement of the earth’s platelets several thousands of years ago. It is not something that is easy to track, and it goes under the radar for hundreds of years until something big happens, such as an earthquake. Nevermind the fact that earthquakes happen all the time around the world, but because we have more people, more development, and more ability to monitor them, someone wants an excuse to why we’re having so many. To me the same holds true for global warming and cooling. When was the last time we shrieked in panic at the coldest year in 50 or 100 years? We don’t know, because there wasn’t anything forseeably cataclismic about it. It wasn’t fueld by political debate on what we need to do to warm the country, and it certainly wasn’t compared to how few people were in a place that couldn’t “warm it up”. It is human instinct to find reason, to see what IS there versus what is not, hence why the debate has gotten so “heated” so to speak. I’m not jumping on the global warming bandwagon just yet. I’m just not convinced it’s our doing. I do however, wish I could live an extra hundred years to see the outcome.

Severe storms raked the upper Midwest and High Plains last Friday. The Storm Prediction Center says that one of the hail stones may have set a world record for size and weight. 

The current record-holding hailstone fell from a severe thunderstorm in southeastern Nebraska on June 22, 2003. That stone measured 7 inches in diameter with a circumference of 18.75 inches.

The chunk of ice that was found by a ranch hand near the town of Vivian on Friday night, unofficially measured 8 inches in diameter with an 18.5-inch circumference.

 

Check out this video via the Weather Channel of over 1 FOOT of hail that fell in Boulder Co, Colorado recently!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/raw-hail-brings-winter-wonderland-17865#17865

EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
817 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY        101       77     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         98       77     0.00     0.00
CROSS CITY           :CTY         98       77     0.00     0.04
DOTHAN               :DHN         97       75     0.00     0.00
MARIANNA             :MAI        101       77     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         98       75     0.00     0.00
PERRY                :40J          M        M        M     0.00
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         99       78     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         97       75     0.12     0.64


Blue Skies at 9:45, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Looking east. Virtually no clouds in Dothan.
Sent from my BlackBerry

For 86 days, oil spewed into the Gulf of Mexico from BP’s damaged well, dumping some 200 million gallons of crude into sensitive ecosystems. BP and the federal government have amassed an army to clean the oil up, but there’s one problem — they’re having trouble finding it.

At its peak last month, the oil slick was the size of Kansas, but it has been rapidly shrinking, now down to the size of New Hampshire.

Today, ABC News surveyed a marsh area and found none, and even on a flight out to the rig site Sunday with the Coast Guard, there was no oil to be seen.

Related

“That oil is somewhere. It didn’t just disappear,” said Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

Salvador Cepriano is one of the men searching for crude. Cepriano, a shrimper, has been laying out boom with his boat, but he’s found that there’s no oil to catch.

“I think it is underneath the water. It’s in between the bottom and the top of the water,” Cepriano said.

Even the federal government admits that locating the oil has become a problem.

“It is becoming a very elusive bunch of oil for us to find,” said National Incident Cmdr. Thad Allen.

Skimmers Pick Up Less Oil

The numbers don’t lie: two weeks ago, skimmers picked up about 25,000 barrels of oily water. Last Thursday, they gathered just 200 barrels.

Still, it doesn’t mean that all the oil that gushed for weeks is gone. Thousands of small oil patches remain below the surface, but experts say an astonishing amount has disappeared, reabsorbed into the environment.

“[It's] mother nature doing her job,” said Ed Overton, a professor of environmental studies at Louisiana State University.

Experts: Gulf of Mexico Oil is Breaking Up

The light crude began to deteriorate the moment it escaped at high pressure, and then it was zapped with dispersants to speed the process along. The oil that did make it to the ocean’s surface was broken up by 88-degree water, baked by 100-degree sun, eaten by microbes, and whipped apart by wind and waves.

Experts stress that even though there’s less and less oil as time goes on, there’s still plenty around the spill site. And in the long term, no one knows what the impact of those hundreds of millions of gallons will be, deep in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

A passenger jet crashed in the hills outside of Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad early this morning in the midst of rain, wind and low-hanging clouds. All 152 people onboard the plane have perished.

The plane, an Airbus 321 belonging to the private airliner Airblue, was traveling across Pakistan. The plane had originally departed the southern port city of Karachi for a two-hour flight to Islamabad.

Civil aviation official, Pervez George, told the Associated Press that “the plane was about to land at the Islamabad airport when it lost contact with the control tower, and later we learned that the plane had crashed.”

The time of that lost communication was 9:43 a.m. (Pakistan local time or 12:43 a.m. EDT), according to Reuters.

One witness told Reuters that it was raining as he saw the plane flying very low outside of his office.

Rain has been falling occasionally in Islamabad since Tuesday afternoon EDT. The city’s airport did not report any rainfall at midnight EDT, but rain had started again by 1 a.m.

Visibility in Islamabad was just over 2 miles at the time of the crash. However, visibility was significantly less higher in the atmosphere due to low-hanging clouds blanketing northern Pakistan.

Murree, Pakistan, which sits at an elevation of nearly 7,000 feet in the hills northeast of Islamabad, reported that visibility was down to one-sixteenth of a mile at 2 a.m. EDT.

The previous report from Murree at 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday stated a similar visibility. The weather station at Murree only reports every six hours, unlike the hourly observations given at Islamabad’s airport.

In addition, Islamabad had been enduring persistent windy conditions since Tuesday. Around the time the plane lost contact, sustained winds were averaging from the east-northeast at 18 to 20 mph.

The plane came down in the Margalla Hills that lie to the north and west of Islamabad, and was carrying a total of 146 passengers and six crewmen.

A government official told the Associated Press that at all 152 people were killed in the crash. Earlier reports that five wounded passengers had survived were wrong.

The weather will not cooperate as crews work to recover bodies and clear the wreckage. Additional rain is in store for northern Pakistan through at least Friday.

   In Dothan from July 1st through Tuesday, we are averaging a high temp of 94 degrees, however, in the past two weeks we have been averaging 96, which is 2 degrees above our climatological average July high. Only one record has been set, on July 23rd at 102 degrees, and have tied one record on the 27th at 96 degrees.

Dothan's high of 96 degrees on Tuesday ties the record set in 1952.














EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY         99       76     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         93       77     0.00     0.00
CROSS CITY           :CTY         96       75     0.00     0.05
DOTHAN               :DHN         96       76        T        T
MARIANNA             :MAI         99       78     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         94       77     0.00     0.09
PERRY                :40J          M       78        M        M
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         98       76     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         97       76     0.00     0.00

Thanks to Lauren H. for sending us this photo from around 7 o’clock Tuesday Night. It was taken near Red Lobster on the Montgomery Highway and sent from her BlackBerry.

These 2 pictures from Tuesday night were taken by News4 Reporter John LaBerge while he was covering a news story in Dothan.



Developing rain, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Southeast side of Dothan 6:15 pm Tuesday

This time of the year, you’ll hear lots of people mention “dog days”.

The name comes from the ancient belief that Sirius, the Dog Star, which used to hang low in the sky during the summer months, helped contribute to the Sun’s intense heat.

In the northern hemisphere, ‘dog days” usually fall between early July and early September. In the southern hemisphere, they’re usually between January and early March.

The actual dates vary greatly from region to region, and country to country, depending on latitude and local climate.

Today, they’re typically referred to as “the 40 hottest days of the year”.

But in this area of the country, we have a LOT more than 40!

For example, Dothan averages at least 93 degrees each day for 55 days in a row – from June 25th to August 18th.

Historically, our 9 hottest days of the year are right in the middle of those 55 – from July 19th to July 27th, we average 94 degrees each day!

So although you may read or hear from various sources that Dog Days run from July 3 to August 11, or from July 28th through September 5th, for us, it’s the 55 days from June 25th through August 18.

As of July 27th in Dothan, we have reached 95 degrees 16 times.
We have also been above 95 for 9 days!!
We have only hit triple digits twice, however with the heat index we’ve been feeling in the hundreds for over a week!

EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

CORRECTED RAINFALL FOR TALLAHASSEE TO MISSING.

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY        100       77     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         91       79     0.00     0.00
CROSS CITY           :CTY         93       74     0.00     0.07
DOTHAN               :DHN         97       75     0.04     0.04
MARIANNA             :MAI         98       76     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         92       76     0.00     0.00
PERRY                :40J         94       77     0.18     0.18
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         98       76        M        M
VALDOSTA             :VLD         98       75     0.00     0.00

Thanks to Michael C. for this “cloud with a silver lining” from Monday afternoon.

(In the morning, send your photos to Martha@WTVY.com, in the afternoon, Connor@WTVY.com, and on the weekends to Oscar@WTVY.com.)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIATION IN THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. IN ADDITION...A DRIER POCKET OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LESS OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT...EXPECT TO SEE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF MID/UPPER 70S. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
TODAY...ALEVIATING THE NEED FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. ALSO
EXPECT TO SEE POPS WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION AND
DRYING ALOFT.

A CONTINUATION OF THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE WEST AND THE SFC
RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE GULF. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY...DEWPOINT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S. POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEABREEZE CLIMO.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDICES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE OVER A WIDE AREA. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 OR HIGHER
HEAT INDICES COULD BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS FOR ONE OR MORE
AFTERNOONS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE SUPPRESSING NATURE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...POPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COULD RETURN TO THE PICTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ScienceDaily (July 22, 2010) — A Cornell Lab of Ornithology team working in the Gulf has documented what may be the worst oil spill devastation of a major bird colony so far.

The documentary and research team, led by biologist and multimedia producer Marc Dantzker, first visited Raccoon Island on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast on June 18, 2010, and found one of the largest waterbird colonies in the state to be oil free and in excellent health.

The team returned July 11 and 12 after hearing reports from local biologists of significant oil landfall with impact to birds. The team found oil present on rocks and all along the beaches. Almost all of the juvenile brown pelicans they saw had at least some oil on them, and they estimated that roughly 10 percent were “badly oiled.” Roughly forty percent of juvenile terns also had visible oil on them.

Dantzker said he suspects high seas driven by Hurricane Alex and a full moon may have contributed to the disaster.

“The island has a single line of inshore boom on the bay side, and in some places this boom showed signs that oil splashed over the top and there was oil on shore behind these booms,” Dantzker said. “What Gulf-side boom there previously was has been destroyed and is washed up in piles, or deep into the island.”

Dantzker said the oil impact on the island’s massive bird colonies is by far the worst he has seen in the Gulf to date.

EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
819 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY         97       75     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         85       81     0.04     0.04
CROSS CITY           :CTY         94       77     0.69     0.74
DOTHAN               :DHN         96       77     0.00     0.00
MARIANNA             :MAI         97       78     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         91       77        T        T
PERRY                :40J         95       77     0.00     0.00
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         95       79     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         95       75     0.03     0.03

 

Climategate and the Big Green Lie

by Clive Crook  Senior Editor   ‘The Atlantic’  July 14, 2010

By way of preamble, let me remind you where I stand on climate change. I think climate science points to a risk that the world needs to take seriously. I think energy policy should be intelligently directed towards mitigating this risk. I am for a carbon tax. I also believe that the Climategate emails revealed, to an extent that surprised even me (and I am difficult to surprise), an ethos of suffocating groupthink and intellectual corruption. The scandal attracted enormous attention in the US, and support for a new energy policy has fallen. In sum, the scientists concerned brought their own discipline into disrepute, and set back the prospects for a better energy policy.

I had hoped, not very confidently, that the various Climategate inquiries would be severe. This would have been a first step towards restoring confidence in the scientific consensus. But no, the reports make things worse. At best they are mealy-mouthed apologies; at worst they are patently incompetent and even wilfully wrong. The climate-science establishment, of which these inquiries have chosen to make themselves a part, seems entirely incapable of understanding, let alone repairing, the harm it has done to its own cause.

The Penn State inquiry exonerating Michael Mann — the paleoclimatologist who came up with “the hockey stick” — would be difficult to parody. Three of four allegations are dismissed out of hand at the outset: the inquiry announces that, for “lack of credible evidence”, it will not even investigate them. (At this, MIT’s Richard Lindzen tells the committee, “It’s thoroughly amazing. I mean these issues are explicitly stated in the emails. I’m wondering what’s going on?” The report continues: “The Investigatory Committee did not respond to Dr Lindzen’s statement. Instead, [his] attention was directed to the fourth allegation.”) Moving on, the report then says, in effect, that Mann is a distinguished scholar, a successful raiser of research funding, a man admired by his peers — so any allegation of academic impropriety must be false.

You think I exaggerate?

This level of success in proposing research, and obtaining funding to conduct it, clearly places Dr. Mann among the most respected scientists in his field. Such success would not have been possible had he not met or exceeded the highest standards of his profession for proposing research…

Had Dr. Mann’s conduct of his research been outside the range of accepted practices, it would have been impossible for him to receive so many awards and recognitions, which typically involve intense scrutiny from scientists who may or may not agree with his scientific conclusions…

Clearly, Dr. Mann’s reporting of his research has been successful and judged to be outstanding by his peers. This would have been impossible had his activities in reporting his work been outside of accepted practices in his field.

In short, the case for the prosecution is never heard. Mann is asked if the allegations (well, one of them) are true, and says no. His record is swooned over. Verdict: case dismissed, with apologies that Mann has been put to such trouble.

Further “vindication” of the Climategate emailers was to follow, of course, in Muir Russell’s equally probing investigation. To be fair, Russell manages to issue a criticism or two. He says the scientists were sometimes “misleading” — but without meaning to be (a plea which, in the case of the “trick to hide the decline”, is an insult to one’s intelligence). On the apparent conspiracy to subvert peer review, it found that the “allegations cannot be upheld” — but, as the impressively even-handed Fred Pearce of the Guardian notes, this was partly on the grounds that “the roles of CRU scientists and others could not be distinguished from those of colleagues. There was ‘team responsibility’.” Edward Acton, vice-chancellor of the university which houses CRU, calls this “exoneration”.

I am glad to see The Economist, which I criticized for making light of the initial scandal, taking a balanced view of these unsatisfactory proceedings. My only quarrels with its report are quibbles. For instance, in the second paragraph it says:

The reports conclude that the science of climate is sound…

Actually, they don’t, as the article’s last paragraph makes clear:

An earlier report on climategate from the House of Commons assumed that a subsequent probe by a panel under Lord Oxburgh, a former academic and chairman of Shell, would deal with the science. The Oxburgh report, though, sought to show only that the science was not fraudulent or systematically flawed, not that it was actually reliable. And nor did Sir Muir, with this third report, think judging the science was his job.

Like Pearce, The Economist rightly draws attention to the failure of the Russell inquiry to ask Phil Jones of the CRU whether he actually deleted any emails to defeat FoI requests. It calls this omission “rather remarkable”. Pearce calls it “extraordinary”. Myself, I would prefer to call it “astonishing and indefensible”. I don’t see how, having spotted this, the magazine can conclude that the report, overall, was “thorough, but it will not satisfy all the critics.” (Well, the critics make such unreasonable demands! Look into the charges, they say. Hear from the other side. Ask the obvious questions. It never stops: you just can’t satisfy these people.)

However, The Economist is calling for the IPCC’s Rajendra Pachauri to go. That’s good.

So where does this leave us? Walter Russell Mead is always worth reading on this subject, and I usually agree with him — but I think his summing up in this case is not quite right.

Greens who feared and climate skeptics who hoped that the rash of investigations following Climategate and Glaciergate and all the other problems would reveal some gaping obvious flaws in the science of climate change were watching the wrong thing.  The Big Green Lie (or Delusion, to be charitable) isn’t so much that climate change is happening and that it is very likely caused or at least exacerbated by human activity.  The Big Lie is that the green movement is a source of coherent or responsible counsel about what to do.

He’s right, of course, that the green movement is not trusted as an adviser on what to do. So what? Its counsel on policy is not required. Nor, for that matter, is a complex international treaty of the sort that Copenhagen failed to produce. Congress and the administration can get to the right policy — an explicit or implicit carbon tax; subsidies for low-carbon energy — without the greens’ input, so long as public opinion is convinced that the problem is real and needs to be addressed. It’s not the extreme or otherwise ill-advised policy recommendations of the greens that have turned opinion against action of any kind, though I grant you they’re no help. It’s the diminished credibility of the claim that we have a problem in the first place. That is why Climategate mattered. And that is why these absurd “vindications” of the climate scientists involved also matter.

The economic burdens of mitigating climate change will not be shouldered until a sufficient number of voters believe the problem is real, serious, and pressing. Restoring confidence in climate science has to come first. That, in turn, means trusting voters with all of the doubts and unanswered questions — with inconvenient data as well as data that confirm the story — instead of misleading them (unintentionally, of course) into believing that everything is cut and dried. The inquiries could have started that process. They have further delayed it.

(Oscar’s comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

…BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1011
MB…29.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…A FEW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST…FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL…BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Oscar’s comments:

No surprise here if you have been following our posts and comments since Thursday afternoon. This particular system was unnecessarily hyped by several mainstream media sources with MSNBC even speculating that it might turn into a hurricane in the Gulf! No one with any kind of weather pedigree was calling for that possibility, and none of the computer guidance models did either.

As I mentioned previously, there should be no significant adverse impact on the oil spill from Bonnie, and in fact several positive results could occur (dilution, weathering, rougher seas, scouring and movement of what’s left of the near surface oil AWAY from the coasts), and interestingly, there seem to be very few concentrated areas of oil left on the sea surface. We can all be thankful for the limited oil damage (at least so far) PRIMARILY to the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico that served to bottle up most of the oil away from the coast.

In addition, (many of you already know this, but evidently many, including some in the national media, do not) wave action on the sea surface penetrates very LITTLE distance downward – in fact, the energy decreases EXPONENTIALLY with depth (unless in a very shallow area). Even mountainous 70 to 80 foot seas found mainly in North Atlantic winter type storms penetrate with rapidly diminishing energy to near zero beyond 200 feet. With the drill head at the broken oil well in the Gulf at 5000 feet plus, it was NEVER in jeopardy from any storm generated waves.

It’s easy to be an alarmist on any subject, it’s another thing to back it up with data and to then share that data with others so they may prove or disprove it.

More on the tropics (and other matters) farther down the road…

Oscar

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