AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIATION IN THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. IN ADDITION...A DRIER POCKET OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LESS OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT...EXPECT TO SEE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF MID/UPPER 70S. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
TODAY...ALEVIATING THE NEED FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. ALSO
EXPECT TO SEE POPS WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION AND
DRYING ALOFT.

A CONTINUATION OF THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE WEST AND THE SFC
RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE GULF. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY...DEWPOINT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S. POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEABREEZE CLIMO.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDICES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE OVER A WIDE AREA. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 OR HIGHER
HEAT INDICES COULD BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS FOR ONE OR MORE
AFTERNOONS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE SUPPRESSING NATURE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...POPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COULD RETURN TO THE PICTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

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