You are currently browsing the monthly archive for July 2010.

As of now, it looks like the ill-defined center of Tropical Depression Bonnie will pass just east of the mouth of the Mississippi River early this evening and make landfall just southeast of New Orleans around 10 or 11 pm tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are over southeastern Louisiana at this hour, with lots of showers and storms in the Gulf just south of the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coastline. 

Bonnie should bring some much-needed rain to many parts of southwest Alabama. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.

BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

UPDATE...THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION OF T.D. BONNIE IS CENTERED
APPROX 160NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY THIS MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM BONNIE WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER LAND BEING AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. 12Z TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT UP TO 2.3
INCHES WITH A MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 3000J/KG. THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN THIS
MORNING...SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...VERSUS THE MINIMAL COVERAGE OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH LOWER
POPS ACROSS AL/GA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE STUBBORN DEEP
LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LIKEWISE...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...MID AND UPPER 90S...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AL/GA...WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS TO INCREASE THE
VALUES OVER THE BIG BEND. OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...T.D. BONNIE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES STEADILY WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS PUSHING AS HIGH AS 6 FEET. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN LEGS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...
THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE WAS EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO FRI EVE. LATEST REGIONAL SATELLITE PIX SHOWING DECREASING
CONVECTION WITH EACH PIX. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THAT
BONNIE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST LAND
AREA. WILL GO WITH 20 PCT OR LESS POPS EXCEPT 30 PCT PANHANDLE COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS AND 40 PERCENT OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BROADER ENVELOPE OF DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
GIVEN THAT BONNIE HAS WEAKENED...HAVE TWEAKED DOWN WINDS/GUSTS A
FEW KNOTS EACH HOUR OVERNIGHT. BONNIE WILL AFFECT OUR REGION
SATURDAY...GIVING THE REGION AN ABOVE-AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...SURFACE WINDS.

THE APPROACH OF BONNIE MAY BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND SOME MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ACROSS WRN MOST BEACHES. ACCORDING TO THE LOCAL SWAN...WE MAY
NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.

Old record high in Dothan for July 23rd was 101 degrees in 2000.
Topped out at 102 today.

EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
807 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY         99       75     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         93       79     0.00     0.00
CROSS CITY           :CTY         96       71     0.00     0.00
DOTHAN               :DHN        102       79     0.20     0.20
MARIANNA             :MAI        100       79     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         98       79     0.08     0.00
PERRY                :40J         96       74     0.00     0.00
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         97       75     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         96       72     0.00     0.00

(Oscar’s comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

…BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 485 MI…780 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA…INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB…29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Oscar Fann  WTVY-TV meteorologist

As we mentioned earlier this morning, there seemed to be a growing chance Bonnie might be losing what little organized circulation it possessed. Indeed, that has happened. In fact, there seems to be a near equal chance Bonnie degenerates into an open wave (no closed circulation) vs. becoming a tropical storm once again! If it does regain tropical storm status, it would be probably right before landfall. By the way, as we have said from early Thursday afternoon, the landfall seemed more likely for the Louisiana / Mississippi coast vs the earlier Hurricane Center track toward western Louisiana. Indeed, the new Hurricane Center track is now landfall along the La / Ms coasts late Saturday night / early Sunday morning.

Also, this path would help direct what oil is left near the spill site SOUTHWESTWARD – AWAY from the Gulf coast.

More later.

At this time yesterday, Dothan was at 95 degrees – and ended up at 101. Here’s a look at noon readings from around the area. Look at the Heat Indices in the right-hand column.

DOTHAN         SUNNY     98  73  44 NE7       30.11F HX 108
OZARK          MOSUNNY   97  74  46 NE9       30.07F HX 107
TROY           SUNNY     96  73  47 NE10      30.10F HX 105
EUFAULA        FAIR      99  71  40 E6        30.07F HX 107
GULF SHORES    MOSUNNY   95  77  55 CALM      30.08S HX 109
ANDALUSIA/OPP  MOSUNNY   98  72  42 E6        30.07F HX 107
EVERGREEN      SUNNY     95  72  47 VRB6      30.10F HX 103
CRESTVIEW      MOSUNNY   95  76  53 NE6       30.08F HX 108
DESTIN         PTSUNNY   95  74  50 VRB5      30.05F HX 105
PENSACOLA      PTSUNNY   93  74  53 NE6       30.08S HX 103
GULFPORT       SUNNY     95  73  48 CALM      30.09S HX 104
BILOXI         SUNNY     91  74  57 E5        30.10S HX 101
PASCAGOULA     MOSUNNY   92  75  57 VRB3      30.09S HX 103
MONTGOMERY     MOSUNNY   96  70  42 VRB5      30.09F HX 102
MAXWELL AFB    SUNNY     95  76  53 N5        30.08F HX 108
FORT RUCKER    MOSUNNY   97  70  41 VRB7      30.06  HX 103
DALEVILLE      MOSUNNY   97  74  46 NE9       30.07F HX 107
PANAMA CITY    MOSUNNY   96  74  48 VRB3      30.04F HX 107
TALLAHASSEE    MOSUNNY   94  73  50 VRB7      30.07F HX 103

(Oscar’s comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY
INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN
FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3
WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC
STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...85 KM/HR. 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. 

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Bonnie is poorly organized and is showing even more signs of shear from the upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico.

As I mentioned earlier, the track continues to be shifted slightly more northwest toward the Louisiana / Mississippi coast and landfall occurring Saturday evening or night.

There may be a GROWING chance that Bonnie degenerates into either a depression or just an open wave. An open wave is a weak area of low pressure that has no recognizable circulation. Thus, the current marginal threat would be even less. However, if it stalled in the Gulf and the interfering upper low moved away, then it would get interesting, BUT there’s NO sign that scenario will occur! 

Even though there are Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Okaloosa county westward, it appears for now tropical storm force winds would occur only out in the open Gulf waters during the day Saturday, but higher surf and possible dangerous rip currents could result in area beaches, especially from Destin westward.

More later today…..Oscar

(photo courtesy of USA Today)

Remember back in May when many birds, turtles and other animals were coated in oil from the ruptured Gulf well? Most of us were up in arms that such innocent creatures had to struggle not just to eat but to survive. However, many wildlife specialists were cautiously surprised that many more animals were not affected (my own unscientific opinion was that the dispersants, not initially used, helped with diluting the oil to the point that more natural influences such as sun, wind and warm seawater could then be quicker in breaking down the diluted oil).

Back to my earlier point. Dozens if not hundreds of pelicans had to be cleaned, calmed and rehabilitated before being allowed to return to the Gulf (most were initially relocated to Texas coastal areas). Now, look at the above photo again.

The irony of the photo should make you smile.

Pelicans normally cruise the near shore waters looking for that next meal, then literally ‘divebomb’ into the water to grab the fish it sees (an enjoyable sight to watch). Evidently, a lone pelican somehow learned that maybe that orange looking object (oil boom floatation) protruding from the water could be a resting place. Anyway, the pelican learns the boon will support its weight – then discovers that just sitting on the boon allows it to scan the waters a little easier and places it closer to its next dinner. Other pelicans quickly catch on, and now the buffet line starts to stretch. Notice even one pelican is looking the other way (less competition).

When living in south Florida around 1970 I went through the Everglades National Park (extreme southern Florida). There was a small bridge tourists walked over, and down stream of the bridge an alligator mainly floated motionless in the water. I watched the scene for a few minutes, then started laughing when I understood what was happening.

There was a larger body of water up stream of the tourist bridge, and under the bridge was a roughly constructed tiny dam, or spillway (really, just a couple of boards stacked horizontally across the stream where water slightly overflowed.  Just up stream of the little spillway was a couple dozen garfish lying in wait for small fish that got caught in the tiny current toward the spillway. Easy pickins’ for the garfish. However, the garfish themselves would drift toward the spillway and would flick their tail fin at the last minute to move back up into position. Nevertheless, every few minutes one of the garfish would wait too late to recover, and it would slip over the spillway – and guess who was waiting for the new arrival? Talk about dinner coming to you!

In the next few months I think you will see a relatively quick recovery in the ecology of the portions of the Gulf of Mexico impacted by the oil spill. Some areas may take a few years to rebound, but generally the Gulf will bounce back faster than people think. Nature got its way by being resilient, and hopefully we’ve all learned valuable lessons. We humans will make other mistakes, but I hope not the same ones.



Panama city beach Friday morning, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1129 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY        100       76        T        T
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         92       77     0.00     0.00
CROSS CITY           :CTY         97       71     0.00     0.06
DOTHAN               :DHN        101       78     0.00     0.00
MARIANNA             :MAI         98       77     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         96       75     0.00     0.00
PERRY                :40J         96       74     0.00     0.00
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         97       74     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         96       73        T        T

 

(OSCAR’S COMMENTS AT BOTTOM)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

…CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…23.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY…AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY…AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL…BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…THE FLORIDA
KEYS…AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Comments from Oscar Fann   WTVY meteorologist…

The original Tropical Prediction Center (TPC, or National Hurricane Center) track had Bonnie making landfall near the Louisiana / Texas coast. That has shifted with time to southeast Louisiana inland just west of New Orleans. However, several other non governmental hurricane specialists (notably Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather) are sticking to a landfall nearer Biloxi Sunday.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, all guidance (weather models) as well as both the TPC and Bastardi are keeping this a tropical storm with sustained winds no higher than 60-65 mph. As long as the strong upper low (causing shear and disrupting Bonnie’s organization plus entraining drier air into Bonnie) precedes Bonnie into the central Gulf there will limitations on how strong Bonnie can intensify. If the distance between the two increases  and Bonnie slows (neither case appears likely as of now), then things might change.

Since the oil well in the Gulf has been capped for several days, boats skimming for oil are now finding it difficult to locate any significant amount of oil to collect. Bonnie’s effect on the residual oil should be mostly beneficial. The rough seas and heavy rains should act to dilute and help break down the remaining oil. However, some of this diluted oil would be driven ashore ahead of Bonnie’s landfall point. In addition, Bonnie’s wind driven seas could act similar to a washing machine’s agitation and help break up oil previously washed into coastal marshes. Much to watch over the next several days.



Hazy day on Panama City Beach, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

By Darren Samuelsohn and Coral Davenport, Politico

Senate Democrats pulled the plug on climate legislation Thursday, pushing the issue off into an uncertain future ahead of mid-term elections where President Barack Obama’s party is girding for a drubbing.

Rather than a long-awaited measure capping greenhouse gases – or even a more limited bill directed only at electric utilities – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will move forward next week on a bipartisan energy-only bill that responds to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and contains other more popular energy items.

“We don’t have the 60 votes,” said Environment and Public Works Committee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.). “So Sen. Reid’s a pragmatist. So rather than take us to a situation where we don’t have the votes, rather than do half measures, let’s wait until we can get it done and get it right. So I think it’s a smart decision.”

The writing has been on the wall all week, with advocates lowering expectations in light of continued opposition from GOP senators and some moderate Democrats.

“I don’t believe an energy bill has ever passed off the floor in less than about three weeks,” Kerry said Thursday during a town-hall style forum hosted by the Natural Resources Defense Council. “The fact is this is a very complicated bill that has a lot of moving parts. I’m very realistic about that.”

“It�s not dying,” Kerry added. “It’s not going away…We’re going to try our best to find a way to do it in the next few weeks. If we can’t do it in the next weeks, we’ll do something that begins to do something responsibly in the short term. But this will stay out there and we’ll be working on it, we’ll be asking you to talk to your senators and move them to understand why we have to get this done.”

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), Kerry’s partner on the climate proposal, said he had no problem with Reid delaying debate on greenhouse gas caps. “If that’s the truth, it keeps the process open for negotiating a broader utilities-only bill in September,” he said.

Kerry and Lieberman are still working with the electric utility industry, including its lead trade group, the Edison Electric Institute, on a bill slicing its emissions around 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

But other Democrats have their doubts that Kerry and Lieberman will even get time for a floor debate after the August break, especially with Reid and other senators girding up for their own reelection bids.

“We’ve got very substantial constraints on our time when we get back,” Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico said Thursday.

 

The busted well will remain capped if ships evacuate the Gulf of Mexico due to a tropical depression that could turn into a storm as it is moves toward the well site, National Incident Commander Thad Allen told reporters Thursday.

“The decision has been made to leave the cap on even if the well is unattended,” Allen said, adding another decision would be made as early as 8 p.m. ET about potentially evacuating ships from the site.

“While this is not a hurricane, this storm could have some significant impacts,” he said.

Meanwhile, a third of federal waters in the Gulf that were closed due to the oil spill are being reopened Thursday, the federal government said. Most of the 26,388 square miles are off west Florida.

“We haven’t pulled back any of the vessels but we are monitoring the weather because we have to assure the safety of our responders,” Coast Guard Chief Petty Officer Robert Lanier said earlier Thursday.

The tropical depression is producing clusters of thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Kristina Pydynowski, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com said.

The storms are expected to spread over more of the Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thursday then reach Florida’s southeast coast tonight.

Meteorologists are forecasting the system to head toward the northern Gulf Coast and the oil spill this weekend.

“The biggest legacy of this will probably be pockets of heavy rain. It will come in waves,” said Tom Moore, lead meteorologist from The Weather Channel. “It is moving along fast enough that they are going to feel the effects in southern Florida between midnight and dawn. You will get gusty winds at times and heavy rain.”

BP placed a temporary plug called a storm packer inside the relief tunnel Wednesday, in case it has to be abandoned until the storm passes.

“We haven’t completely stopped operations on the relief well, but we’ve put this basically this plugging device in to hold what we’ve got right now pending the decision on whether or not we can remain on scene, ” Allen said Wednesday. “If we remain on scene, we’ll remove that device and go on and proceed to lay the casing.

The energy giant is waiting for approval from Allen to begin a procedure known as “static kill” that involves pouring mud into the top of the well.

“We need to have the weather window happen for us and then if we had approval to move forward with the “static kill,” that could happen in very quick sequence,” BP senior vice president Kent Wells said Wednesday. “This all hinges on the weather.”

BP is also waiting for a long enough weather window to resume work on its relief well, now four feet horizontally from the well. “We have 100 plus feet to drill before we can intercept the well,” he said.

Allen told reporters Wednesday that if the work crews are evacuated, it could take 10 to 14 days before they could resume the effort to kill the well.

“That is the longest case scenario. We are evaluating whether or not we will have to do that based on the storm track,” Allen said.

(Posted by Jessica Durando)

 

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL032010
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 75.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

 

With the ongoing heat, this heat exhaustion / heat stroke information seemed timely. There continues to be confusion about the two, which could lead to serious consequences. Wednesday, USA Today erroneously reported golfer Michelle Wie “suffered a case of heatstroke but would be back Thursday”. If that had been true, she would have been near death, and NO, she would NOT have been back Thursday. It took them a few hours, but USA Today corrected it later to heat exhaustion.

     

      HEAT EXHAUSTION (usually combined with DEHYDRATION)

The body (human or domesticated animal) is having trouble adjusting to the heat, humidity or both. Signs range from mild to approaching a serious nature. 

Symptoms include (generally these are listed in order from mild to more serious):

Fatigue

Shaking / trembling hands (noticeable when lifting a cup of water)

Weakness (especially in the legs)

Muscle cramps

PROFUSE sweating (panting in an animal)

Headache

Dizziness

Nauseous

Vomiting

 

     HEAT STROKE

is a medical emergency and is LIFE THREATENING and MUST BE TREATED BY PROPERLY TRAINED MEDICAL PERSONNEL.

Symptoms include (any of which should be considered very serious):

Confusion

Disorientation

Rapid pulse

Difficulty breathing

LACK of sweating (animal becomes listless)

HIGH body temperature (approaching 105 degrees and higher)

Seizure

Coma

Persons on various medications (e.g., blood pressure medicine, but many other prescriptions also) may be more susceptible to heat exhaustion / heat stroke.

In addition, some persons MAY NOT SHOW ANY SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION BUT INSTEAD MAY GO STRAIGHT TO DISPLAYING SYMPTOMS OF HEAT STROKE.

TREATING HEAT EXHAUSTION

Go to an air conditioned area or well ventilated shady area

Slowly drink a blend of electrolyte (Gatorade) and only slightly chilled water

AVOIDING HEAT EXHAUSTION

Postpone outdoor activities in the hottest time of day if possible

If you have to be outdoors, then

AVOID alcohol or caffeineated drinks several hours before being outdoors

Sit in a shaded outdoor area 15 to 30 minutes to allow your body to try adjust to the heat and humidity

Take frequent, extended breaks with plenty of hydrating drinks

Change shirts often to avoid wearing drenched shirts that hinder your body’s sweating abilities

TREATING HEAT STROKE

FIRST AND FOREMOST – COOL THE VICTIM

Get victim to a shaded area

Remove clothing

Apply / Spray cool water (as in cool water from a garden hose)

Fan victim to promote sweating and evaporation of heat away from body

Place ICE PACKS under arm pits and the groin area

Monitor body temperature and try to get it down to near 102 degrees

Call 911 as soon as possible; medical personnel will then give you additional instructions while en route

(Call 911 as soon as possible but TREATING / COOLING VICTIM is FOREMOST)

 

Remember – these symptoms apply to both humans and domesticated animals.

Is in the Atlantic tracking Northwest at 15 mph and is expected to become Tropical Storm Bonnie within the next 12 hours. This storm is not expected to affect Wiregrass weather aside from providing available moisture for daily afternoon showers Sat-Mon.

The tropical wave north of Haiti is now showing circulation and will be upgrated to a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Bonnie. This system does not have much time to develop much stronger than a moderate tropical storm, and it looks like for the panhandle will be recieving some rain from it this weekend and early next week.  The National Hurricane Center has sent a reconnaissance mission into the affected area and advisories will be  released at 11 AM eastern time. Current model paths are shown below.

On Wednesday Dothan reached 98 degrees with the heat index hovering around 105-109. Today we expect the same. Heat advisories are in place in AR, LA, MS, AL, GA and SC until 7 pm Central Time. A heat advisory denotes a heat index of 110 degrees. Make sure to stay out of the heat if possible, stay hydrated, do not over exert yourself, wear sunscreen and light material, lightly colored clothing!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH.  DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO.  LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Only a few showers south and west of DeFuniak Springs.

Tropical rainstorms moving toward the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday threatened to shut down undersea efforts to seal BP’s ruptured well, interrupting work just as engineers get close to plugging the leak with mud and cement.

Retired U.S. Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said a weather system brewing in the Carribean could force crews to abandon their watch over the experimental cap that’s been bottling oil a mile below the surface of the water for nearly a week.

Scientists have been scrutinizing underwater cameras and data for days, trying to determine if the cap is displacing pressure and causing leaks underground. If storms keep them from seeing the cap and getting those readings — for up to four days, Allen said — BP could reopen the well to avoid missing signs it is buckling.

Forecasters say the storm system likely will move into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Right now, it has about a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

Even if the storm doesn’t hit the area directly, it could affect containment and cleanup. Hurricane Alex didn’t get closer than 500 miles from the spill in late June, yet offshore skimming in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida was essentially curtailed for nearly a week.

In Florida, crews were removing protective boom intended to buffer the state’s inland waterways in the Panhandle from oil. High winds and storm surge could carry the boom into sensitive wetlands, damaging those areas.

BP crews are in the final stages of readying a relief tunnel before boring into the side of the ruptured well to dump heavy mud and cement, sealing it for good. BP also may pump mud and cement from the top, to make efforts at the bottom easier. That procedure, called a surface kill, would occur before the well is ultimately plugged from below.

Before talk of nasty weather, BP was inching closer to completion and had hoped for a permanent plug by early August.

 

 

By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

A rapidly forming severe thunderstorm was the cause of major, injury-causing turbulence that forced a United flight to land in Denver Tuesday night.

United Flight 967 was en route to Los Angeles when it came into a storm over Kansas.

AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity said that the storm exploded upwards into the jet’s flight path. The storm climbed from about 25,000 feet to 45,000 feet in 30 minutes.

The plane would have encountered updrafts of more than 50 mph, and there was evidence of very strong updrafts occurring at and above 30,000 feet.

United 967 was flying at 34,000 feet when the pilot asked to be rerouted to Denver.

Margusity said that flying into the updrafts would have caused the plane to jump.

The speed at which the thunderstorm was developing, Margusity said, was like a wall of intense turbulence going up in front of the plane.

The storm also produced large hail.

About 30 people experienced moderate to critical injuries, which reports indicate include whiplash, bruising and head and neck injuries. Most people were not seriously injured, but about 25 people were taken to area hospitals, including several crew members.

The plane was rerouted to Denver, where it landed without incident around 7:45 p.m. local time.

The jet, carrying 235 people, including 10 crew members, was a Boeing 777.

This is the third reported incident of turbulence causing passenger injuries on a United flight this year.

The intense heat and humidity that blanketed central Kansas since late last week, is being blamed for killing more than 2,000 cattle. One state official called the heat-related losses the worst in his 17 years on the job.

However, conditions for the cattle improved somewhat on Tuesday as the humidity has decreased and the wind has picked up.

Kansas is the third largest cattle state with more than 2 million cattle in feedlots.



These are the latest official model runs as of 21/00Z by the NHC












TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET
FORMED.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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