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Thanks to Cat Thomas in Wicksburg for this sunset from Tuesday.

As dry as we’re going to be over the next few days, this reminds me of that ol’ sailor saying, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight… Red sky in morning, sailor take warning!”



East of Dothan at Noon Tuesday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

Sent in by a Viewer from Panama City Beach, FL. Sunset with Rainbow

Danielle is the Nose, Earl is the point on the nose….

TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF FIONA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
WITH JUST A FEW WEAK BANDING FEATURES. A NOAA/NTAS BUOY LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB A FEW HOURS
AGO...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME PRESSURE AS BUOY 41041 MEASURED
EARLIER TODAY. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF FIONA...
ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND
MAY HALT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...PLUS THE CYCLONE COULD BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS THAT WERE UPWELLED BY EARL. MOST OF THE
MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL/GFDN...ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  

MICROWAVE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING 280/21.
FIONA SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY
WELL CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF.  THAT MODEL IS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT SHOWS A DEEPER
FIONA RESPONDING TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. 
SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THAT SCENARIO...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.  STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

Photos like this one from Hurricane Danielle taken over the weekend from Ocean City, NJ will be plentiful up and down the east coast this week, as Hurricane Earl rides close to the coastline. While waves like this are tempting for surfers, high surf and rip currents are going to be extremely dangerous through the end of the week. Portions of the mid Atlantic to the northeast will see double overhead waves when Earl is closest, and rip currents will be dangerous all the way to south Florida.

Hurricane warnings  have been issued for Anguilla, St. Martin, the US and Brittish Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, St. Eustaius. Hurricane force conditions are expected within 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kits, Nevis & Puerto Rico.

Earl is located at approx 11 am Central Time 95 miles East Northeast of St. Thomas, and 165 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Earl is moving West/Northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph within the storm and gusts to 150 mph. Earl’s central pressure is 960 mb. This is by all means a dangerous hurricane, and people with concern along the Atlantic seabord especially around Outer Banks, North Carolina, Virginia Beach, and Myrtle Beach need to be prepared for effects from Earl in the next 2-3 days. While this storm is expected to stay over open waters, it is looking more and more likely that it will be close to the coast, creating dangerous surf, beach erosion, heavy rain and dangerous hurricane force winds.

Earl, soon to be Fiona and likely other yet to develop tropical storms and / or hurricanes will pose an increasing threat to the US coastline in the weeks ahead.

Earl will be a hurricane officially later this Sunday morning.
Regardless, the pressure at Earl’s center was 992 mb from the 10pm cdt Saturday Aug 28 recon data and was listed as 989 mb in that update.

Such a pressure in a strengthening tropical cyclone would support hurricane force (above 73 mph) sustained winds at the surface.

Earl poses a significant threat for the extreme northern Leeward Islands, with HURRICANE WARNINGS (hurricane winds expected) for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla.
HURRICANE WATCHES are up for St. Maarten, the American Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

For now, Earl looks to pass just to the northeast of Puerto Rico.

Earl could possibly threaten the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the mid Atlantic area, and / or New England later this upcoming week.
At the very least, Earl will be uncomfortably close to the east US coast then.

Farther east is another tropical system.
This system has NOT yet been declared a tropical depression, but it should be (image below).

In fact, it already has tropical storm force gusts (greater than 38 mph) and will be Tropical Storm Fiona by later Sunday or Monday Aug 30.

Fiona poses an even greater threat to the southeast US coast the latter part of the Labor Day weekend.
For now, the threat looks to be more to the Atlantic coast around South or North Carolina.

(above is Hurricane Fran 1996; Earl or more likely Fiona could be in a similar position with time)

Unfortunately, this active tropical pattern may try to shift westward with time.

Such a shift would increase the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes making their way into the Gulf of Mexico from mid September into early October.

It is a POTENTIAL but not yet a real THREAT, but we all need to be vigilant and thinking ahead.

We DO NOT want to repeat such scenes as the following -

More information throughout the next several weeks from all of us here at WTVY-TV.

Oscar Fann



Rain Clouds South of Dothan, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

Showers and isolated downpours are drifting N/NW this afternoon.

EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING

TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)

ASOS REPORTS

                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN

ALBANY               :ABY         89       73     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         84       76        T     0.01
CROSS CITY           :CTY         86       74     0.22     1.26
DOTHAN               :DHN         89       74     0.87     0.87
MARIANNA             :MAI         87       76     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         82       75     0.74     0.99
PERRY                :40J         83       73     0.03     1.99
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         85       76        T     0.00
THOMASVILLE          :TVI         83       74     0.00     0.00
TIFTON               :TMA         84       72     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         83       73     0.18     0.18



ADDITIONAL REPORTS
:                                  HIGH    LOW     PCPN
:
:APALACHICOLA             :AAF      84 /    76 /   0.01
:CRESTVIEW                :CEW      83 /    74 /   0.23
:CROSS CITY               :CTY      86 /    74 /   1.27
:DESTIN                   :DTS      86 /    74 /   4.85
:MARIANNA                 :MAI      87 /    76 /     T
:PANAMA CITY              :ECP      82 /    75 /   0.99
:PENSACOLA                :PNS      79 /    73 /   2.11
:TALLAHASSEE              :TLH      85 /    76 /     T

Tropical Storm Earl won’t be a threat to much of anything until next week.

All models keep Danielle well east of Bermuda.

Rain ending just in time for Friday Night high school football…

Showers and downpours drifting northward.



Heavy Rain East of Dothan, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

Here is a link to an excellent Q & A, with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, 5 years post Katrina…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2010/08/25/DI2010082505395.html

Here is the first visible satellite image of Hurricane Danielle, early Friday Morning. She is now a CAT 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph gusting to 160 mph!! (that would be CAT 5 gusts!) This storm is still expected to recurve out into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Click image to animate.



East of Dothan at 7:30pm, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry



Rain Clouds South of Dothan, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

4pm Thursday.
Sent from my BlackBerry

Most Americans first learned of Michael D. Brown about five years ago when George W. Bush declared, “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job.” But the former FEMA administrator was out of a job within days as the storm devastated parts of four Gulf states and left more than 1,800 people dead.

Brown now hosts “The Michael Brown Show” on Denver’s KOA-AM radio, which will broadcast tonight from New Orleans. He spoke with The Federal Eye about the anniversary, his frequent run-ins with people at airports and restaurants and his suggestions for folks interested in government service. An edited transcript follows:

Five years later, what do you take away from Katrina – especially the charges that the feds didn’t do enough?

I think the most important point is that everything that I was saying to [former Homeland Security secretaries] Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff prior to Katrina making landfall all came true. The people at FEMA who will now tell you that Washington had become too Washington-centric are absolutely true. And that was a function of a giant sucking hole of DHS that was taking resources and taking manpower out of the field and using it up to make everything emanate from Washington, D.C. Which was the antithesis of what FEMA had always been about. …

Subsequent to DHS, they start stripping out different functions from FEMA, taking out resources. I told Ridge and Chertoff both that we would face another Hurricane Andrew. By taking the money away, for example, the preparedness grants, which went out for awhile, came back in, that broke the relationship FEMA had with state and locals. The policy guidance, everything. I warned them this is what would happen. That you would show up somewhere, you’d be beyond the capabilities and FEMA wouldn’t have the resources and – I think only people in D.C. get this – when you lose that direct chain of command between FEMA and the White House, you’re screwed. Because at the end of the day you only have one person in charge. It has to be the one person on the ground who can tell them what’s going on.

Do people still call or stop you on the street to yell at you, say hello or call you ‘Brownie’?

Oh yeah, it’s amazing. … One was at Denver International Airport. This couple stopped me. He was a doctor and was very sympathetic toward me. He was apologetic for how I was treated and very kind. His wife stood aloof, she was still mad. It struck me that you can have that polar opposite reaction.

And the second incident was at the Dole Institute of Politics. A woman came up, and she’d been evacuated from New Orleans, she’d lost everything she had and was there with her kids. And she was expressing sympathy for what I went through. And she wanted to know that she held nothing against me and she realized she’d made a mistake by not understanding or knowing what she should do to protect her kids. It was a real eye opener for her. …

At the very same presentation, someone in the back of the room started screaming ‘Murderer! Murderer!’ I said, ‘I get it, shut up, I’m giving the presentation.’

Let me ask this again — what would you have done differently if you could do it all over again?

I really needed the president to get the attention of the entire administration. I needed every Cabinet secretary to be full hands on deck. If I called and said I needed X, they should have given me X. I regret not pushing harder for that.

I’m not sure anyone outside the Beltway gets this, but the power of the president using that bully pulpit, yes, it’s good for the public and the victims, but it’s just as important for those political appointees who need to understand the boss is on top of it. He says it’s the number one priority, so do everything it takes. Not having him do that was a tipping point.

The other tipping point was when I couldn’t convince [New Orleans Mayor] Ray Nagin to do a mandatory evacuation. I called the president to call Nagin for me, because I wasn’t getting anywhere with him. The president seemed kind of surprised that I was asking him to do it. After Bush made that call and Nagin kept trying to decide, I went on a few television stations and said ‘I’d be getting my bum out now.’

But I should have been getting on every network saying that. … We don’t have the power or authority, but I failed to not use the bully pulpit and tell people to get out.

Do you have any advice for people like yourself who come to Washington to take these types of political positions – and may end up as the fall guy?

You’ve heard the line, ‘I serve at the pleasure of the president.’ That’s not a trite statement, it’s the absolute truth. You are putting yourself out there, hoping to do the best you can do, recognizing that you’re working in a purely political vacuum and that anything can happen. You have to be ready for it.

When it happens, unless you committed a crime, if you get caught in a political s— storm, then what you need to do is hold your head up, walk away and move on. It’s not the end of the world.

The lesson to be learned about this is – first of all, every agency is going to make missteps. There are always going to be errors made. It’s the nature of the beast.

… Whatever your persuasion is, we have to recognize is that this federal government of the United States is so large and cumbersome that we really can’t and should not expect it to be this kind of well-oiled, well-running machine. It’s not.

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