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TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF FIONA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED WITH JUST A FEW WEAK BANDING FEATURES. A NOAA/NTAS BUOY LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB A FEW HOURS AGO...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME PRESSURE AS BUOY 41041 MEASURED EARLIER TODAY. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF FIONA... ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND MAY HALT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...PLUS THE CYCLONE COULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS THAT WERE UPWELLED BY EARL. MOST OF THE MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL/GFDN...ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MICROWAVE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING 280/21. FIONA SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF. THAT MODEL IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT SHOWS A DEEPER FIONA RESPONDING TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THAT SCENARIO...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
Photos like this one from Hurricane Danielle taken over the weekend from Ocean City, NJ will be plentiful up and down the east coast this week, as Hurricane Earl rides close to the coastline. While waves like this are tempting for surfers, high surf and rip currents are going to be extremely dangerous through the end of the week. Portions of the mid Atlantic to the northeast will see double overhead waves when Earl is closest, and rip currents will be dangerous all the way to south Florida.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Anguilla, St. Martin, the US and Brittish Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, St. Eustaius. Hurricane force conditions are expected within 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kits, Nevis & Puerto Rico.
Earl is located at approx 11 am Central Time 95 miles East Northeast of St. Thomas, and 165 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Earl is moving West/Northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph within the storm and gusts to 150 mph. Earl’s central pressure is 960 mb. This is by all means a dangerous hurricane, and people with concern along the Atlantic seabord especially around Outer Banks, North Carolina, Virginia Beach, and Myrtle Beach need to be prepared for effects from Earl in the next 2-3 days. While this storm is expected to stay over open waters, it is looking more and more likely that it will be close to the coast, creating dangerous surf, beach erosion, heavy rain and dangerous hurricane force winds.
Earl, soon to be Fiona and likely other yet to develop tropical storms and / or hurricanes will pose an increasing threat to the US coastline in the weeks ahead.
Earl will be a hurricane officially later this Sunday morning.
Regardless, the pressure at Earl’s center was 992 mb from the 10pm cdt Saturday Aug 28 recon data and was listed as 989 mb in that update.
Such a pressure in a strengthening tropical cyclone would support hurricane force (above 73 mph) sustained winds at the surface.
Earl poses a significant threat for the extreme northern Leeward Islands, with HURRICANE WARNINGS (hurricane winds expected) for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla.
HURRICANE WATCHES are up for St. Maarten, the American Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
For now, Earl looks to pass just to the northeast of Puerto Rico.
Earl could possibly threaten the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the mid Atlantic area, and / or New England later this upcoming week.
At the very least, Earl will be uncomfortably close to the east US coast then.
Farther east is another tropical system.
This system has NOT yet been declared a tropical depression, but it should be (image below).
In fact, it already has tropical storm force gusts (greater than 38 mph) and will be Tropical Storm Fiona by later Sunday or Monday Aug 30.
Fiona poses an even greater threat to the southeast US coast the latter part of the Labor Day weekend.
For now, the threat looks to be more to the Atlantic coast around South or North Carolina.
(above is Hurricane Fran 1996; Earl or more likely Fiona could be in a similar position with time)
Unfortunately, this active tropical pattern may try to shift westward with time.
Such a shift would increase the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes making their way into the Gulf of Mexico from mid September into early October.
It is a POTENTIAL but not yet a real THREAT, but we all need to be vigilant and thinking ahead.
We DO NOT want to repeat such scenes as the following –
More information throughout the next several weeks from all of us here at WTVY-TV.
EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 818 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010 ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES: HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z) 24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z) ASOS REPORTS HIGH LOW 12HR 24HR PCPN PCPN ALBANY :ABY 89 73 0.00 0.00 APALACHICOLA :AAF 84 76 T 0.01 CROSS CITY :CTY 86 74 0.22 1.26 DOTHAN :DHN 89 74 0.87 0.87 MARIANNA :MAI 87 76 0.00 0.00 PANAMA CITY INTNL :ECP 82 75 0.74 0.99 PERRY :40J 83 73 0.03 1.99 TALLAHASSEE :TLH 85 76 T 0.00 THOMASVILLE :TVI 83 74 0.00 0.00 TIFTON :TMA 84 72 0.00 0.00 VALDOSTA :VLD 83 73 0.18 0.18 ADDITIONAL REPORTS : HIGH LOW PCPN : :APALACHICOLA :AAF 84 / 76 / 0.01 :CRESTVIEW :CEW 83 / 74 / 0.23 :CROSS CITY :CTY 86 / 74 / 1.27 :DESTIN :DTS 86 / 74 / 4.85 :MARIANNA :MAI 87 / 76 / T :PANAMA CITY :ECP 82 / 75 / 0.99 :PENSACOLA :PNS 79 / 73 / 2.11 :TALLAHASSEE :TLH 85 / 76 / T
Here is a link to an excellent Q & A, with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, 5 years post Katrina…
Most Americans first learned of Michael D. Brown about five years ago when George W. Bush declared, “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job.” But the former FEMA administrator was out of a job within days as the storm devastated parts of four Gulf states and left more than 1,800 people dead.
Brown now hosts “The Michael Brown Show” on Denver’s KOA-AM radio, which will broadcast tonight from New Orleans. He spoke with The Federal Eye about the anniversary, his frequent run-ins with people at airports and restaurants and his suggestions for folks interested in government service. An edited transcript follows:
Five years later, what do you take away from Katrina – especially the charges that the feds didn’t do enough?
I think the most important point is that everything that I was saying to [former Homeland Security secretaries] Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff prior to Katrina making landfall all came true. The people at FEMA who will now tell you that Washington had become too Washington-centric are absolutely true. And that was a function of a giant sucking hole of DHS that was taking resources and taking manpower out of the field and using it up to make everything emanate from Washington, D.C. Which was the antithesis of what FEMA had always been about. …
Subsequent to DHS, they start stripping out different functions from FEMA, taking out resources. I told Ridge and Chertoff both that we would face another Hurricane Andrew. By taking the money away, for example, the preparedness grants, which went out for awhile, came back in, that broke the relationship FEMA had with state and locals. The policy guidance, everything. I warned them this is what would happen. That you would show up somewhere, you’d be beyond the capabilities and FEMA wouldn’t have the resources and – I think only people in D.C. get this – when you lose that direct chain of command between FEMA and the White House, you’re screwed. Because at the end of the day you only have one person in charge. It has to be the one person on the ground who can tell them what’s going on.
Do people still call or stop you on the street to yell at you, say hello or call you ‘Brownie’?
Oh yeah, it’s amazing. … One was at Denver International Airport. This couple stopped me. He was a doctor and was very sympathetic toward me. He was apologetic for how I was treated and very kind. His wife stood aloof, she was still mad. It struck me that you can have that polar opposite reaction.
And the second incident was at the Dole Institute of Politics. A woman came up, and she’d been evacuated from New Orleans, she’d lost everything she had and was there with her kids. And she was expressing sympathy for what I went through. And she wanted to know that she held nothing against me and she realized she’d made a mistake by not understanding or knowing what she should do to protect her kids. It was a real eye opener for her. …
At the very same presentation, someone in the back of the room started screaming ‘Murderer! Murderer!’ I said, ‘I get it, shut up, I’m giving the presentation.’
Let me ask this again — what would you have done differently if you could do it all over again?
I really needed the president to get the attention of the entire administration. I needed every Cabinet secretary to be full hands on deck. If I called and said I needed X, they should have given me X. I regret not pushing harder for that.
I’m not sure anyone outside the Beltway gets this, but the power of the president using that bully pulpit, yes, it’s good for the public and the victims, but it’s just as important for those political appointees who need to understand the boss is on top of it. He says it’s the number one priority, so do everything it takes. Not having him do that was a tipping point.
The other tipping point was when I couldn’t convince [New Orleans Mayor] Ray Nagin to do a mandatory evacuation. I called the president to call Nagin for me, because I wasn’t getting anywhere with him. The president seemed kind of surprised that I was asking him to do it. After Bush made that call and Nagin kept trying to decide, I went on a few television stations and said ‘I’d be getting my bum out now.’
But I should have been getting on every network saying that. … We don’t have the power or authority, but I failed to not use the bully pulpit and tell people to get out.
Do you have any advice for people like yourself who come to Washington to take these types of political positions – and may end up as the fall guy?
You’ve heard the line, ‘I serve at the pleasure of the president.’ That’s not a trite statement, it’s the absolute truth. You are putting yourself out there, hoping to do the best you can do, recognizing that you’re working in a purely political vacuum and that anything can happen. You have to be ready for it.
When it happens, unless you committed a crime, if you get caught in a political s— storm, then what you need to do is hold your head up, walk away and move on. It’s not the end of the world.
The lesson to be learned about this is – first of all, every agency is going to make missteps. There are always going to be errors made. It’s the nature of the beast.
… Whatever your persuasion is, we have to recognize is that this federal government of the United States is so large and cumbersome that we really can’t and should not expect it to be this kind of well-oiled, well-running machine. It’s not.