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This is a popular email forward that has been traversing the internet for over 7 years now…it is NOT true!

Some things you may hear….

“The Red Planet is about to be spectacular.”

“Earth is catching up with Mars [for] the closest approach between the two planets in recorded history.”

“On August 27th … Mars will look as large as the full moon.”

And finally, “NO ONE ALIVE TODAY WILL EVER SEE THIS AGAIN.”

Only the first sentence is true. The Red Planet is about to be spectacular. The rest is a hoax.

Here are the facts: Earth and Mars are converging for a close encounter this year on October 30th at 0319 Universal Time. Distance: 69 million kilometers. To the unaided eye, Mars will look like a bright red star, a pinprick of light, certainly not as wide as the full Moon.

Disappointed? Don’t be. If Mars did come close enough to rival the Moon, its gravity would alter Earth’s orbit and raise terrible tides.

Sixty-nine million km is good. At that distance, Mars shines brighter than anything else in the sky except the Sun, the Moon and Venus. The visual magnitude of Mars on Oct. 30, 2005, will be -2.3. Even inattentive sky watchers will notice it, rising at sundown and soaring overhead at midnight.

You might remember another encounter with Mars, about two years ago, on August 27, 2003. That was the closest in recorded history, by a whisker, and millions of people watched as the distance between Mars and Earth shrunk to 56 million km. This October’s encounter, at 69 million km, is similar. To casual observers, Mars will seem about as bright and beautiful in 2005 as it was in 2003.

Although closest approach is still months away, Mars is already conspicuous in the early morning. Before the sun comes up, it’s the brightest object in the eastern sky, really eye-catching. If you have a telescope, even a small one, point it at Mars. You can see the bright icy South Polar Cap and strange dark markings on the planet’s surface.

“Earl” is the 5th named storm of the season.

  We have two Atlantic tropical cyclones – a hurricane and a tropical storm. It appears a third may soon form behind Earl in the eastern Atlantic. We’ll talk about the Gulf in a minute.

  First, the overall view as of this afternoon, Wed 8/25 from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE…LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS…AND ON RECENTLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL [STORM EARL]…
LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT…IF ANY…OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

  Now, the latest (4pm cdt 8/25) on Hurricane Danielle from the NHC:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

…DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.2N 53.1W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

  Now, the latest (4pm cdt 8/25) on Tropical Storm Earl from the NHC:

TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

…EARL…THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 520 MI…840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE
OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

  What may eventually become Fiona came off the African continent about 24 hours ago.

   For now, the scenarios for these three systems appear to be as follows:

Danielle gets a little stronger (maybe to a low Cat 3, sustained winds greater than 110 mph), eventually still passes to the east of Bermuda late Sunday 8/29, but it’s closer to the island than before. There is an outside chance it slows enough to be trapped by high pressure to the north. In that case, Danielle could drift closer to the mid Atlantic or New England coasts, but that possibility still seems low;

Earl has at least a 50/50 chance of becoming a major hurricane (Cat 3) and stays farther south than Danielle, but still passes north of the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico. Nevertheless, Earl looks like it also will stay in the Atlantic, turning northwest and would be more of a threat to possibly North Carolina or farther up the US east coast later next week;

If Fiona forms from the system just off Africa, it likely would become a hurricane (too early to gauge potential strength). Fiona-to-be would track a little farther south than Earl and pose a threat to the Caribbean and possibly to Florida’s east coast or even the southern Gulf of Mexico around Labor Day weekend. That’s a very early educated reasoning from this far out and that is all it is.

  As far as the Gulf otherwise, currently a weak disorganized system in the western Gulf is not expected to develop much as it drifts toward Texas this weekend.

   Conditions will continue to be favorable for more development in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf) at least well into September.

Sent from my BlackBerry

The Gulf of Mexico oil spill has revealed a previously unknown type of oil-eating bacteria, which is suddenly flourishing.

Scientists discovered the new microbe while studying the underwater dispersion of millions of gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf following the explosion of BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig.

And the microbe works without significantly depleting oxygen in the water, researchers led by Terry Hazen at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reported Tuesday in the online journal Science Express.

“Our findings, which provide the first data ever on microbial activity from a deepwater dispersed oil plume, suggest” a great potential for bacteria to help dispose of oil plumes in the deep-sea, Hazen said in a statement.

Environmentalists have raised concerns about the giant oil spill and the underwater plume of dispersed oil, particularly its potential effects on sea life. A report just last week described a 22-mile long underwater mist of tiny oil droplets.

“Our findings show that the influx of oil profoundly altered the microbial community by significantly stimulating deep-sea” cold temperature bacteria that are closely related to known petroleum-degrading microbes, Hazen reported.

Before the spill the microbes in the deepest parts of the Gulf were not well known and there was little carbon present in the area of cool temperatures and high pressure.

“We deployed on two ships to determine the physical, chemical and microbiological properties of the deepwater oil plume,” Hazen said. “The oil escaping from the damaged wellhead represented an enormous carbon input to the water column.”

Their findings are based on more than 200 samples collected from 17 deepwater sites between May 25 and June 2. They found that the dominant microbe in the oil plume is a new species, closely related to members of Oceanospirillales.

This microbe thrives in cold water, with temperatures in the deep recorded at 5 degrees Celsius (41 Fahrenheit).

Hazen suggested that the bacteria may have adapted over time due to periodic leaks and natural seeps of oil in the Gulf.

Scientists also had been concerned that oil-eating activity by microbes would consume large amounts of oxygen in the water, creating a “dead zone” dangerous to other life. But the new study found that oxygen saturation outside the oil plume was 67 percent, while within the plume it was 59 percent.

The research was supported by an existing grant with the Energy Biosciences Institute, a partnership led by the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Illinois that is funded by a $500 million, 10-year grant from BP. Other support came from the U.S. Department of Energy and the University of Oklahoma Research Foundation.

A frontal boundary has swept drier air into Mississippi, Alabama, the western panhandle and  North Georgia to give us a pleasant, fall like morning on Wednesday! Dothan’s low was 70 degrees, which was the coolest morning since July 3rds low of 69. Abbeville fell to 66 degrees, and Crestview, FL made it to 68. However, the front stalled out across the eastern panhandle, from Washington County eastward dewpoints are 5-10 degrees higher, temperatures warmer, and even had some showers around coastal Gulf county early Wednesday AM.

This temporary reprieve from sultry dewpoints will give us cooler mornings over the next couple of days, but a distubance in the gulf will return humidity and shower chances to the area by Friday.

Enjoy the next two days!

For Dothan…we should have clear conditions for Wednesday Evening at 8:30 pm!

THE FOLLOWING ISS SIGHTINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MON AUG 23 TO TUE SEP 07

SATELLITE LOCAL DURATION MAX ELEV APPROACH DEPARTURE
  DATE/TIME (MIN) (DEG) (DEG-DIR) (DEG-DIR)
           
ISS Mon Aug 23/09:09 PM 1 28 17 above W 28 above WNW
ISS Tue Aug 24/05:13 AM 3 31 24 above W 15 above S
ISS Tue Aug 24/08:01 PM 4 59 18 above SSW 17 above NE
ISS Wed Aug 25/08:30 PM 2 26 25 above NW 15 above N
ISS Fri Aug 27/07:50 PM 1 21 21 above NNW 15 above N
           

As of 7 am CDT Hurricane Danielle remains a Category 1 hurricane with sustianed winds of 85 mph and gusts of 105 mph. She is still projected to stay over open waters and curve, passing Bermuda to the east.

Adisories on Tropical Depression #7 will be issued beginning late this morning, shortly behind Danielle. This system will become Earl within the next 2-3 days, and looks to be following a very simmilar path to Danielle, and likely stay out to sea, but once again…it is still too soon to project if this storm will influence the United States.

Behind the wave that will become TD #7, another wave is developing along the west coast of Africa. This could become TS Fiona a 7-9 days from now.

Closer to home, there is a broad area of low pressure in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico that has a low potential for development.

Always remember, it only takes one storm to impact land for damage to occur, and a busy season is a busy season regardless if storms make landfall!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER MODELS FAVOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT
DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING.  FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48
HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE
STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING
FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS
HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE.
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH
CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 


EVENING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
827 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

ALL REPORTS AS OF 7PM EST / 8PM EDT THIS EVENING


TEMPERATURES:  HIGH TODAY...FINAL LOW THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION: 12 HR...TODAY (12Z - 00Z)
               24 HR...SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (00Z - 00Z)


ASOS REPORTS


                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY         96       76     0.00     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         90       77     0.07     0.07
CROSS CITY           :CTY         85       76     1.02     1.14
DOTHAN               :DHN         95       74     0.00     0.00
MARIANNA             :MAI        100       78     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         94       77     0.00     0.00
PERRY                :40J         89       75     0.50     0.84
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         93       76     0.00        T
THOMASVILLE          :TVI         94       75     0.00     0.00
TIFTON               :TMA         92       74     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         92       75     0.00     0.05

Showers along the coast are dying down.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
BEEN STUCK WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY TO DROP ANY LOWER THAN 75 TO 80 DEGREES (WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S TO PRODUCE UNBEARABLE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES MANY
DAYS)...SIGNS OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
MATERIALIZE. AT 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...THE DEWPOINTS AT DHN AND
OZR HAVE DROPPED TO 68 AND 67 RESPECTIVELY...AND MAI HAS MIXED DOWN
TO A REMARKABLE 64 (ALTHOUGH THE 98 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IS STILL
QUITE HOT. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL QUITE COMMON...AND THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WED AND THU. THE ONLY OTHER CHALLENGE TO THE
FCST WILL BE POPS...AND WE EXPECT THE SIMILAR NW TO SE GRADIENT
(INCREASING) TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE
INROADS THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE SHOULD REDUCE THE MAXIMUM POPS
INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THE SURFACE AND A MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WITH THIS TROF EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OFF THE EAST COAST
AND BE REPLACED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT IN A
NEARLY STATIONARY STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE A VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FROM A MUCH
MORE TROPICAL ONE TO THE SOUTH. THUS...WILL SHOW A TIGHT POP
GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE. THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW RIDGING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING DRIVEN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION PROVIDING
THE FIRST REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IN SOME TIME. THE 23/00-12Z EURO RUNS
PREFERRED A MORE MOIST APPROACH LEAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEVELOPING A DISTURBANCE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 24/00Z EURO LOOKS TO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE 24/00Z GFS...THOUGH IT STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF JACKSONVILLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THAT THE EURO MIGHT BE CONVERGING CLOSER TO A DRIER GFS
SOLUTION...WILL OPT FOR A FORECAST SOLUTION THAT IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THIS ALSO KEEPS
REASONABLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 48.2W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST.  DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.






HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.





------------------------------
PLUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAS
NOT YET FORMED.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Now a Cat 1…

Both systems are projected to not affect the United States.

Tuesday Morning’s Full Moon over foggy Hartford, Al. Kind of spooky if you ask me!

Written by Ann McElhinney
Sunday, 22 August 2010 17:49

Last March James Cameron sounded defiant.

The Avatar director was determined to expose journalists, such as myself, who thought it was important to ask questions about climate change orthodoxy and the radical “solutions” being proposed.

Cameron said [he] was itching to debate the issue and show skeptical journalists and scientists that they were wrong.

“I want to call those deniers out into the street at high noon and shoot it out with those boneheads,” he said in an interview.

Well, a few weeks ago Mr. Cameron seemed to honor his word.

His representatives contacted myself and two other well known skeptics, Marc Morano of the Climate Depot website and Andrew Breitbart, the new media entrepreneur.

Mr. Cameron was attending the AREDAY environmental conference in Aspen Colorado 19-22 August. He wanted the conference to end with a debate on climate change. Cameron would be flanked with two scientists. It would be 90 minutes long. It would be streamed live on the internet.

They hoped the debate would attract a lot of media coverage.

“We are delighted to have Fox News, Newsmax, The Washington Times and anyone else you’d like. The more the better,” one of James Cameron’s organizers said in an email.

It looked like James Cameron really was a man of his word who would get to take on the skeptics he felt were so endangering humanity.

Everyone on our side agreed with their conditions. The debate was even listed on the AREDAY agenda.

But then as the debate approached James Cameron’s side started changing the rules.

They wanted to change their team. We agreed.

They wanted to change the format to less of a debate—to “a roundtable”. We agreed.

Then they wanted to ban our cameras from the debate. We could have access to their footage. We agreed.

Bizarrely, for a brief while, the worlds most successful film maker suggested that no cameras should be allowed-that sound only should be recorded. We agreed

Then finally James Cameron, who so publicly announced that he “wanted to call those deniers out into the street at high noon and shoot it out,” decided to ban the media from the shoot out.

He even wanted to ban the public. The debate/roundtable would only be open to those who attended the conference.

No media would be allowed and there would be no streaming on the internet. No one would be allowed to record it in any way.

We all agreed to that.

And then, yesterday, just one day before the debate, his representatives sent an email that Mr. “shoot it out ” Cameron no longer wanted to take part. The debate was cancelled.

James Cameron’s behavior raises some very important questions.

Does he genuinely believe in man made climate change? If he believes it is a danger to humanity surely he should be debating the issue every chance he gets ?

Or is it just a pose?

The man who called for an open and public debate at “high noon” suddenly doesn’t want his policies open to serious scrutiny.

I was looking forward to debating with the film maker. I was looking forward to finding out where we agreed and disagreed and finding a way forward that would help the poorest people in the developing and developed world.

But that is not going to happen because somewhere along the way James Cameron, a great film maker, has moved from King of the World to being King of the Hypocrites.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

...DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST.  DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

Here are area official High Temperatures from Sunday. We will see at least 2-3 days of mid-upper 90’s this week locally!

                                HIGH      LOW     12HR     24HR
                                                  PCPN     PCPN


ALBANY               :ABY         98       76        M     0.00
APALACHICOLA         :AAF         92       75     0.31     0.31
CROSS CITY           :CTY         95       75     0.20     0.23
DOTHAN               :DHN         97       74     0.01     0.01
MARIANNA             :MAI         99       75     0.00     0.00
PANAMA CITY INTNL    :ECP         96       75     0.00     0.00
PERRY                :40J         94       74     0.03     0.03
TALLAHASSEE          :TLH         98       74     1.20     1.20
THOMASVILLE          :TVI         99       76     0.00     0.00
TIFTON               :TMA         95       75     0.00     0.00
VALDOSTA             :VLD         96       74     0.28     0.28

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.8N 37.1W
ABOUT 850 MI…1365 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND DANIELLE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

The frontal boundary draped across central Alabama Monday morning will move through Southeast Alabama late Monday, and drop our dewpoints to 68-72 over the next 2-3 mornings. While the air temperature will only make it to the lower 70’s (versus upper 70’s low 80’s last week) it will feel more comforatable early in the day, and we will begin with clear skies.

Monday is our transition day to a few days of relief from downright oppressive humidity. Afternoon highs today will be in the mid to upper 90’s inland, low to mid 90’s coastally. Higher dewpoints along the shore contribute to high heat index, and has given Gulf, Bay, Walton, Okaloosa and Escambia county coastal heat advisories for today.

(Oscar’s remarks at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.2N 35.9W
ABOUT 770 MI…1240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. DANIELLE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS…AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM AST.

Oscar Fann meteorologist -

Since Danielle’s inception, forecasts have taken her path into the open Atlantic – first NW, then WNW then NW and finally to the north, just east of Bermuda during the upcoming weekend of August 28-29.

However, there is a slight chance over the next several days the steering pattern for Danielle could change. If so, the risk could increase for the US Atlantic coast, but for now the path outlined above is by far the best bet. Still, Danielle looms as a significant threat to Bermuda.

 The next question is how strong does Danielle become? The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be the first to tell you their guidance to gauge the potential for rapid storm intensification has not kept progress with the ability to predict storm direction.

Currently, the NHC believes Danielle will not become a hurricane until late Tuesday afternoon. If Danielle strengthens rapidly before then (and it does have a 24-36  hour window as shear relaxes), then a stronger Danielle may carve a different path. Research has shown strong hurricanes affect their surrounding environment as much as that same environment affects the hurricane.   

As you can see, too many “ifs” to give a solid answer, but for the next few days, Danielle is the only tropical threat to watch. Later in the week, we will talk about the hurricane season’s remaining potential.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 35.1W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST.  DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
 

Plenty of showers and downpours scattered around the Wiregrass. Most of them will be drifting southward as the day progresses.

AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE GA COAST/NE FLORIDA. STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH WE
FIND A SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AL/GA/TN BORDER. THIS
FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
WILL BE MAKING SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

TODAY... MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN IN PLACE OVERHEAD.
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIALLY KEEP THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT IN CHECK AND
ALLOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO BE MAINLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
COVERAGE OF STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT GRIDS SHOWING
AROUND 60% COVERAGE... AND BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDING...DON`T PLAN
ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WITH THE LATER START TO THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING STEADILY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Lots of areas are receiving good rainfall amounts as showers and downpours move slowly Souteastward this afternoon and evening.

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