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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


82 at 2pm, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

…RECENT WILMINGTON RAINFALL SETS RECORDS…
…HIGHEST 3-DAY RAINFALL IN WILMINGTON HISTORY BACK TO 1871…
…SECOND WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD…

EXTRAORDINARY RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HERE IS HOW WILMINGTON`S RECENT RAINFALL FITS INTO THE
HISTORIC CLIMATE RECORD.

OBSERVED TOTALS…
SUNDAY    SEP 26   0.59 INCHES
MONDAY    SEP 27  10.33 INCHES
TUESDAY   SEP 28   1.96 INCHES
WEDNESDAY SEP 29   7.37 INCHES
THURSDAY  SEP 30   0.41 INCHES (1-3 INCHES MORE POSSIBLE)

1-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS…
#1  13.38 INCHES   9/15/1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2  10.33 INCHES   9/27/2010 (MONDAY`S EVENT)
#3   9.56 INCHES   8/31/2006 (TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO)
#4   9.52 INCHES   9/29/1938
#5   8.04 INCHES   8/18/1879 (“GREAT BEAUFORT HURRICANE“)

2-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS…
#1  17.71 INCHES   9/15 & 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2  14.73 INCHES   9/14 & 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#3  12.29 INCHES   9/27 & 9/28 2010 (MONDAY/TUESDAY`S EVENT)
#4  11.87 INCHES   10/7 & 10/8 2005 (TROPICAL STORM TAMMY)
#5  11.54 INCHES    7/7 & 7/8 1950

3-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS…
#1  19.66 INCHES   9/27 – 9/29 2010
#2  19.06 INCHES   9/14 – 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#3  17.71 INCHES   9/15 – 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#4  14.73 INCHES   9/13 – 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5  13.44 INCHES   9/11 – 9/13 1984 (HURRICANE DIANA)

4-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS…
#1  20.25 INCHES   9/26 – 9/29 2010
#2  19.06 INCHES   9/14 – 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2  19.06 INCHES   9/13 – 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#4  17.71 INCHES   9/15 – 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5  14.73 INCHES   9/12 – 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

5-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS…
#1  20.66 INCHES   9/26 – 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 720 AM…)
#2  19.06 INCHES   9/14 – 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2  19.06 INCHES   9/13 – 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2  19.06 INCHES   9/12 – 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5  17.71 INCHES   9/15 – 9/19 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

SEPTEMBER MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS…
#1  23.41 INCHES   1999  (HURRICANES DENNIS & FLOYD)
#2  20.84 INCHES   2010  (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 720 AM…)
#3  20.10 INCHES   1877  (“HURRICANE FOUR”)
#4  18.94 INCHES   1984  (HURRICANE DIANA)
#5  16.93 INCHES   1924  (“HURRICANE FIVE” AND “TROP STORM EIGHT”)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole combined with a low pressure system is bringing widespread areas of 5-7″ of rain from North Carolina to Connecticut over the next 24 hours. Some areas could see 10+ inches…raising flood concerns up the east coast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDICATE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE OVER
THE CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND RIDGING
OUT WEST. PRIMARY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...TC NICOLE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...THEN BACK ASHORE OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPRESSED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY MENTION OF
SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS WE REMAIN JUST ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTH
FROM TC NICOLE. A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS FIRST PERIOD.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL ADVANCE FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OUTPUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK CAN MAKE IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE. IT WAS JUST A FEW DAYS AGO THAT WE CONTINUED TO SEE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S. NOW THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND AT TIMES WELL
BELOW NORMAL READINGS. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL CLOSE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VALLEYS...AND THEN HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL...THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER (IN TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL) TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO OUR
NORTH...THEN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE DROP BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH
80 EARLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH WIDESPREAD 50S. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...A FEW NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE MARINE WINDS/SEAS. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BRING RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE ON
THE DETAIL OF THE SURFACE PATTERN...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH
TIGHTER GRADIENT...AND SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE ECMWF BEING LESS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THESE TWO RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUITES UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT
IS REACHED...HOWEVER EVEN THIS BLEND BRINGS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
TO OUR WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

MARINE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE TROPICAL
STORM NICOLE...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE KEYS...TRACKS NORTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW PERIODS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE PASSES THE MARINE AREA WELL TO THE EAST. WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS TO REMAIN FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BECOME CHOPPIER IN AND AROUND MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE BIG BEND WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
+SHRA/+RA AND A DENSE CLOUD SHIELD ARE CONTINUING TO IMPACT VLD AND
THE ERN PORTION OF THE REGION. CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN AT IFR OR
LIFR IN +RA. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE +SHRA/+RA WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST 2-3 MORE HRS. +RA HAS MANAGED TO STAY CONFINED TO THE
ERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND HAS NOT IMPACTED THE ABY OR TLH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE CLOUDS FROM THE SHIELD TO THE
EAST ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THOSE TWO TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE WRN
TERMINALS OF DHN AND ECP STILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
AT VLD...POSSIBLY BOTTOMING OUT TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS. BR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AT ABY AND POSSIBLY TLH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
VFR SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY PREVAIL MID MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...PROMPTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
FIRE WX WATCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERNMOST PORTION
OF THE FL PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS SRN AL AND SRN GA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WX LEVELS. WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.

Here is the Infrared imagery of Tropical Storm Nicole as of 11 AM CDT. It is a poorly organized storm with the “center” (which is very difficult to discern) of the storm moving over Cuba. The brunt of the rainfall associated with this storm is on the east side of the storm, and will quickly move up the east coast of Florida through Wednesday.

The storm will then become a major rain maker for North & South Carolina and Virginia into Thursday, while bringing rain up most of the east coast. Below is an estimate of the 2 day rainfall accumulations from Nicole.

During the second half of this decade, the Northern Lights are becoming more rare than at any other time in more than a century, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

The Northern Lights, or Aurora Borealis, generally follow an 11-year solar-cycle, in which the frequency of the phenomena rises to a maximum and then tapers off into a minimum and then repeats the cycle.

They’re triggered by solar winds crashing into the earth and being drawn to the magnetic poles, wreaking havoc on electrons in the parts of the atmosphere known as the ionosphere and magnetosphere.

So a dimming of the Northern Lights is a signal that activity on the sun – which causes solar winds (such as solar flares and sun sports) – is also quieting down.

During the cycle’s peak in 2003, the observing station on Norway’s Svalbard Island (near the North Pole), showed that the Northern Lights were visible almost every single night of the auroral season.

That number has fallen to less than 50%.

As a new solar cycle of activity begins this year, the Earth will once again be bombarded with increased radiation from the sun.

This effect may damage satellites and interfere with GPS, television and communications… and increase the frequency of the Northern Lights.

Forecasters may never know just how hot it got in Los Angeles during a day of record-breaking heat: After the temperature soared to 113 degrees in downtown, the thermometer took the rest of the day off!

“It just kind of quit functioning, but the temperature had already peaked,” National Weather Service forecaster Stuart Seto said Tuesday of the blistering weather a day earlier. “We doubt that it went over 113.”

The fall heat wave pushed temperatures well over 100 degrees from Anaheim, home of Disneyland, to San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz and Salinas on the usually balmy central coast. Many records were set or tied.

Clouds should help to keep the heat at more reasonable levels on Wednesday.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM
PRESSURE.  INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR
MORE OF THE CENTER.  CLEARLY...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY.  THERE
IS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE.  IN ANY EVENT...RECENT
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES AND VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.   THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM PREDICTION.  GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONT
AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO
THE NORTH REPLACING THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.

BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE...AND SATELLITE DATA THE
CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH ACCELERATION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT QUITE CLOSE TO THE NEW U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS.

UNLESS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE TIGHTENS UP SOON...THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIMPORTANT...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 

The Southwest has been under an extreme heatwave the past several days. In Los Angeles, they hit an all-time record of 113 degrees on Monday! 100+ degree temps are widespread across Southern California and Arizona.

Tropical Storm Matthew left more of a punch than origionally thought….in South Central Mexico over 1,000 people are feared trapped after a massive mudslide in Oaxaca Mexico. Over 300 houses may be buried as a 650 foot hill fell following last week’s tropical storm Matthew affected the area.

In Eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New York, New Jersey and Western Connecticut a tornado watch has been issued Tuesday promted by a strong cold front moving towards the area, and warm air ahead of the front. No tornadoes have been reported but numerous wind damage reports have been reported in the mid-atlantic from Monday from the same system.

And last but not least, Tropical Depression #16 developed on Tuesday in the Caribbean, and is anticipated to become Tropical Storm Nicole before Tuesday is over. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued in South Florida from Jupiter to Ft. Myers beach.

This system is going to bring flooding rain to much of the Florida Penninsula in the next 36 hours. This system will have no affect on Wiregrass Weather,



Cirrus clouds Tuesday Morning, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.



Sunday & Monday WTVY Rainfall, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Comment below and let us know how much your home received!

After 110 days at or above 90 degrees this year for Dothan (includes 9 days at or above 100), it looks like the 90s have left the building. Someone lock the door, please!

After a bone dry September, most of us received at least an inch of rain Sunday evening with some more into Monday morning. Nice to see a colorful radar again.

Now, the first widespread shot of 50 degree night temps will arrive, and it looks like upper 40s may show up at night during the first full week of October.

What about the tropics? The next 2 to 3 weeks represent the last significant threat to our area (Yes, there have been isolated November threats, but by then the north Gulf waters have cooled enough to limit the intensity,  plus the steering winds have increased from the west to turn the systems more toward the northeast Gulf or the Florida peninsula).

Here is the Sunday overnight satellite image south of us.

As expected a low (eventually Nicole?) is trying to develop north of Honduras and east of Yucatan. It should move north mid to late week. For several days the trend has been for it to turn and cross the Florida peninsula late week or over the upcoming weekend.

In another week, yet another low (Otto?) may develop in the same general vicinity in the Caribbean.

Stay tuned to WTVY-TV for updates.



90 at Noon, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Rain showers on the way.
Sent from my BlackBerry

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS NOT WEAKENED MUCH THIS
EVENING.  PUERTO LIMPERA IN EASTERN HONDURAS REPORTED A 10-MINUTE
WIND OF 38-40 KNOTS AT 2300 AND 0000 UTC...AND THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A
850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 58 KT AND A PEAK SFMR WINDS OF
51 KT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC. 
BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER
LAND FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45
KT.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
LAND...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM 12 TO 24
HOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
BEFORE MOVING INTO BELIZE.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

SURFACE DATA...SATELLITE FIXES AND RADAR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.
OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY STEER
MATTHEW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  BY THE
TIME MATTHEW MOVES INTO GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...LIKELY PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN
AFTER MATTHEW WEAKENS.  

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 


Rain Clouds? Could Be!, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Scattered showers along the coast at 2:50pm… Moving Northward!
Sent from my BlackBerry

First things first….we’re now a few days into Fall, so when is it going to feel like it? Not right away, but likely by mid-next week. We are going to have a few days this weekend of unseasonable hot temperatures, in the lower 90’s, with the most considerable rain chances seen in weeks. A strong ridge of high pressure, that has essentially acted as a bubble over the Southeast, is finally eroding in the upper levels, which means more moisture can invade the air where clouds develop, and help to develop some shower activity.

 Sunday appears to be the best chance for us to see rain, because an approaching cold front will “try” to make it through the Wiregrass, with a bit of energy broken off to move through then too…this will give us enough ingredients to give us what we need for showers.

Since it is somewhat of a weak front, it will take through Monday to “clear the air” so to speak, but after that, noticably cooler and drier Air will be felt by likely Tuesday/Wednesday, and cooler morning lows by Thursday, perhaps near 60-63.

That being said, we’re still watching Tropical Storm Matthew, which is gunning for Nicaragua & Belize, and then likely the Yucatan. This is going to create a big headache in the form of flooding and mudslides. Where it goes from there enters voodooland, but many models say an upper level trough could push it towards southern Florida, perhaps Ft. Meyers/Tampa and become a hurricane. This will not be for another 4-5 days…so we shall see.

In the meantime, it’s a beautiful day out there! We expect to see some very isolated showers, otherwise a high of 94 could tie us for the record set in 1988, but I don’t think we’ll quite make it.

Have a good day!

-Martha



93 Degrees at 2:30, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

… don’t be fooled by the notion that the length of day is exactly equal to the length of night.

The true time for that day/night equality always falls after the Autumnal Equinox and before the first day of Spring (the Vernal Equinox).

 

On Sep 23, 1975  Hurricane Eloise scored the first direct hit by a major hurricane in the Fort Walton Beach – Panama City area in the 20th century. 125 mph sustained winds (955 mb pressure) were recorded at landfall with a 155 mph gust at Panama City (twenty years later, Cat 3 Opal had 115 mph sustained winds at landfall in a similar area).

Tides were recorded 12 to 16 feet above normal. Heavy rain was confined to near the center of the fast moving hurricane, but considerable beach erosion occurred. No deaths in Florida or Alabama directly resulted from Eloise, although two heart attack deaths were recorded.

As Eloise roared north during the day Sep 23, severe winds created damage through most of southeast Alabama.

Several people were injured in Geneva county; a 100 mph wind gust was recorded northeast of Ozark; a tornado in Pike county ripped up numerous pecan trees; another tornado near Auburn littered nearby I-85 with dozens of trees; and several outages of power were reported in southeast Alabama.

As Eloise interacted later with a stationary front in the mid Atlantic states, major flooding resulted with loss of life.

If you read the previous post from Martha, you already know that the Moon is going to be spectacular tonight.

Take a few minutes to step outside and see for yourself (before the 10 o’clock news!).

Sept. 22, 2010:  For the first time in almost 20 years, northern autumn is beginning on the night of a full Moon. The coincidence sets the stage for a “Super Harvest Moon” and a must-see sky show to mark the change of seasons.

The action begins at sunset on Sept 22nd, the last day of northern summer. As the sun sinks in the west, bringing the season to a close, the full Harvest Moon will rise in the east, heralding the start of fall.

 The two sources of light will mix together to create a kind of 360-degree, summer-autumn twilight glow that is only seen on rare occasions.

Keep an eye on the Moon as it creeps above the eastern skyline. The golden orb may appear strangely inflated. This is the Moon illusion at work. For reasons not fully understood by astronomers or psychologists, a low-hanging Moon appears much wider than it really is.

A Harvest Moon inflated by the moon illusion is simply gorgeous.

The view improves as the night wears on.

 

Northern summer changes to fall on Sept. 22nd at 11:09 pm EDT. At that precise moment, called the autumnal equinox, the Harvest Moon can be found soaring high overhead with the planet Jupiter right beside it. The two brightest objects in the night sky will be in spectacular conjunction to mark the change in seasons.

The Harvest Moon gets its name from agriculture. In the days before electric lights, farmers depended on bright moonlight to extend the workday beyond sunset. It was the only way they could gather their ripening crops in time for market. The full Moon closest to the autumnal equinox became “the Harvest Moon,” and it was always a welcome sight.

This one would be extra welcome because it is extra “Harvesty.”

Usually, the Harvest Moon arrives a few days to weeks before or after the beginning of fall. It’s close, but not a perfect match. The Harvest Moon of 2010, however, reaches maximum illumination a mere six hours after the equinox. This has led some astronomers to call it the “Harvestest Moon” or a “Super Harvest Moon.” There hasn’t been a comparable coincidence since Sept 23, 1991, when the difference was about 10 hours, and it won’t happen again until the year 2029.

A Super Harvest Moon, a rare twilight glow, a midnight conjunction—rarely does autumn begin with such celestial fanfare.

Courtesy of NASA.com

For the second day in a row, Dothan missed tieing the record high by 1 degree.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
824 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 0921 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
AAF  : APALACHICOLA ARPT        :  90 /  71 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY ARPT          :  95 /  62 /  0.02
40J  : PERRY-FOLEY ARPT         :  94 /  66 /  0.03
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE RGNL ARPT    :  96 /  68 /  0.00
ABY  : SOUTHWEST GA ARPT        :  97 /  66 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT       :  94 /  65 /  0.00
TVI  : THOMASVILLE ARPT         :  97 /  68 /  0.00
TMA  : TIFTON ARPT              :  94 /  65 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN RGNL ARPT         :  98 /  69 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA MUNI ARPT       :  99 /  72 /  0.00
ECP  : NORTHWEST FL - INTL ARPT :  93 /  69 /  0.00

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE
IGOR...THAT HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 125 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

The possibility of impact from multiple tropical storms or hurricanes spanning the shores of the Caribbean to the southeastern U.S. could set the stage for a very tropical October (“Troptober”).

The 14-day period beginning in late September into mid-October could yield three to five named systems in these waters.

The amount of disruptions to travel and oil/gas production, as well as flooding, damage and risk to human lives caused by these storms would depend on their strength and exact location.

The tropics may make up for lost time in terms of direct impacts from tropical storms and/or hurricanes on the U.S., as the nearby waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the southwestern Atlantic are primed to explode during October.

October may be the month the southeastern U.S. is battered by multiple tropical storms or hurricanes.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi remains very concerned that the raging La Niña and its associated cool waters in the tropical Pacific have created a tremendous imbalance.

That imbalance must be dealt with via tropical cyclones in the southwest part of the Atlantic Basin where warm waters have led to a buildup of heat.

Factoring in climatology, tropical activity shifts to the far western Atlantic during October with the decline of the Cape Verde season.

Now computer models seem to be rallying to support Joe’s concern with a barrage of tropical cyclones appearing to form in succession over the Caribbean and the southwestern Atlantic during the last few days of September through the first part in October.

The GFS and other models are suggesting multiple tropical cyclones will fire in the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic waters over then next few weeks. This image is the GFS forecast for Oct. 5, 2010.

If these models are right, Florida, part of the Gulf Coast, the southern Atlantic Seaboard, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas could be in for multiple rounds of heavy rains, gusty winds, rough seas and battering surf.

The combination of La Nina, climatology and the computer models should have interests keeping a very close eye on the situation in the Southwest Atlantic Basin.

Our first tropical system in this series is likely to take shape by early next week in the Caribbean.

The possibility of impact from multiple tropical storms or hurricanes spanning the shores of the Caribbean to the southeastern U.S. could set the stage for a very tropical October (“Troptober”).

The 14-day period beginning in late September into mid-October could yield three to five named systems in these waters.

The amount of disruptions to travel and oil/gas production, as well as flooding, damage and risk to human lives caused by these storms would depend on their strength and exact location.

The tropics may make up for lost time in terms of direct impacts from tropical storms and/or hurricanes on the U.S., as the nearby waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the southwestern Atlantic are primed to explode during October.

October may be the month the southeastern U.S. is battered by multiple tropical storms or hurricanes.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi remains very concerned that the raging La Niña and its associated cool waters in the tropical Pacific have created a tremendous imbalance.

That imbalance must be dealt with via tropical cyclones in the southwest part of the Atlantic Basin where warm waters have led to a buildup of heat.

Factoring in climatology, tropical activity shifts to the far western Atlantic during October with the decline of the Cape Verde season.

Now computer models seem to be rallying to support Joe’s concern with a barrage of tropical cyclones appearing to form in succession over the Caribbean and the southwestern Atlantic during the last few days of September through the first part in October.

The GFS and other models are suggesting multiple tropical cyclones will fire in the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic waters over then next few weeks. This image is the GFS forecast for Oct. 5, 2010.

If these models are right, Florida, part of the Gulf Coast, the southern Atlantic Seaboard, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas could be in for multiple rounds of heavy rains, gusty winds, rough seas and battering surf.

The combination of La Nina, climatology and the computer models should have interests keeping a very close eye on the situation in the Southwest Atlantic Basin.

Our first tropical system in this series is likely to take shape by early next week in the Caribbean.

Courtesy of Accuweather.com

Opinion time again.

If you saw President Clinton on Letterman last night, talking about “climate change”, and how to “fix” our so-called, “green energy challenge”, please remember that he is a lawyer – or was – and a politician.

The fact that he was our president – and Al Gore our vice-president – gives them absolutely no “inside scoop” about how the weather – or the economy – really works.

Neither one of them has ever run a business, met a payroll, or even taken a beginning class in meteorology.

If the climate really needs “fixing”, we’re in big trouble – because we can’t change it.

And if “green jobs” could really “fix” the economy, smart business guys would be all over it.

But they’re not.

The only people expecting to profit from all those non-existent “green jobs” will be lawyers – and politicians.

Watch and see.

- Connor

While Tropical Storm Lisa is not expected to do much, as it moves slowly northwestward in the Eastern Atlantic…this is the 12th named storm of the season. Typically 11 storms is considered “Average”. While Lisa is not expected to pose a threat to the United States, and will likely stay out to sea, there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean that indicates possibly development towards the end of September that warrants watching…

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