TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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