You are currently browsing the monthly archive for September 2010.

Dothan was 1 degree away from matching the record of 99 degrees in 1997 on Monday.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG BEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
826 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM EST / 6PM CST


.BR TAE 0920 E DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM EST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
AAF  : APALACHICOLA ARPT        :  91 /  71 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY ARPT          :  96 /  61 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY-FOLEY ARPT         :  96 /  61 /  0.00
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE RGNL ARPT    :  97 /  64 /  0.00
ABY  : SOUTHWEST GA ARPT        :  98 /  65 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT       :  95 /  62 /  0.00
TVI  : THOMASVILLE ARPT         :  98 /  65 /  0.00
TMA  : TIFTON ARPT              :  95 /  63 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN RGNL ARPT         :  98 /  68 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA MUNI ARPT       :  99 /  68 /  0.00
ECP  : NORTHWEST FL - INTL ARPT :  93 /  68 /  0.00

Better catch Jupiter tonight! It won’t be that big or bright again until 2022.

Jupiter will pass 368 million miles from Earth late tonight, its closest approach since 1963.

Around midnight, it will be directly overhead. That’s because Earth will be passing between Jupiter and the sun, into the wee hours of Tuesday.

The solar system’s largest planet already appears as an incredibly bright star — three times brighter than the brightest star in the sky, Sirius. The only thing brighter in the night sky right now is our moon.

Binoculars and telescopes will dramatically improve the view of  Jupiter, along with its many moons.

Fall “officially” begins this Wednesday, September 22nd at 10:05 pm. Our weather says otherwise. The average high for mid-September in Dothan is 87 degrees. This weekend our highs were 97. We will continue to see 90 degree temps for likely another two weeks. As for rain? No luck there either…we have now gone through the entire month of September with not even a sprinkle. Drought conditions are in the Severe range for all of the Southeast Alabama portion of the wiregrass, and Moderate for everywhere else in the viewing are.

Please excuse sensationalist AP reporter….

First, the entire WTVY-TV area is in at least a moderate drought – with the Alabama counties and the nearby Florida area in a severe drought. A wet August has not been enough to overcome below average spring rainfall, a dry July and a bone dry September (so far).

However, the long term picture is not as depressing, thanks to a very wet 2009 and this past winter.

Regardless of what you might hear, weather patterns are cyclical and the rains will return. Without getting too technical, the current La Nina atmospheric pattern is not particularly favorable for a quick turnaround in rainfall fortunes. Our best hope would be a weak or disorganized tropical system bringing rain this fall. Unfortunately,  you don’t get to pick your weather – it picks you.

So, what about the next two weeks?

The mid 90 temps continue on Monday Sep 20, then trend down toward 90 later in the week. High pressure early this week moves east into the Atlantic around Friday Sep 24 and opens the tropical door to the southeast – but what is out there?

This satellite image is from Sunday overnight. Igor is passing just west of Bermuda (top center), but at bottom center you see a disorganized area of tropical weather that is forecast to move WNW and be near southern Florida around Friday Sep 24.

For now, no development into a named tropical system is forecast. The aforementioned high pressure moving away east into the Atlantic is expected to push that area of tropical moisture at least into the Gulf where it could bring rain chances for our area late week into the weekend. At this stage, only a chance, but plausible.

Anything else in the tropics brewing?

Julia is falling apart, and Igor is heading quickly northward as an open Atlantic storm.

 The Hurricane Center likes the chances of the circled area becoming a named (Lisa) tropical system within 48 hours. However, they’ve been saying that for more than 48 hours already. There’s a great deal of dry air out ahead of ‘Lisa-to-be’ , and I don’t think quick development looks promising for now.

If ‘Lisa-to-be’ does eventually develop, limited forecast computer guidance takes it into the Caribbean but moves it west, staying well south of our area early next week (Sep 27-29). That’s because by then, new high pressure along the east coast builds southward toward the southeast and would block ‘Lisa-to-be’ from moving toward us.

If all, most (or at least some) of the above verifies (good luck with that), it stays warm (87-91) and mostly dry most of next week (Sep 27-Sep 30). However, just in time for October, around Oct 1 Friday, a significant cold front brings the first bonafide shot of cooler fall weather.

Alas, it doesn’t appear to bring much frontal rainfall. We may have to hope for that disorganized tropical system that isn’t firing on all cylinders.



92 at 5:30pm Sunday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 0918 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
AAF  : APALACHICOLA ARPT        :  90 /  74 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY ARPT          :  93 /  64 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY-FOLEY ARPT         :  93 /  65 /  0.00
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE RGNL ARPT    :  94 /  69 /  0.00
ABY  : SOUTHWEST GA ARPT        :  96 /  71 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT       :  93 /  65 /  0.00
TVI  : THOMASVILLE ARPT         :  95 /  68 /  0.00
TMA  : TIFTON ARPT              :  92 /  67 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN RGNL ARPT         :  97 /  70 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA MUNI ARPT       :  96 /  71 /  0.00
ECP  : NORTHWEST FL - INTL ARPT :  94 /  68 /  0.00

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

...LARGE IGOR FORECAST TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY...WEATHER SHOULD
WORSEN MUCH EARLIER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 64.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. IGOR IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.  HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN 
SOONER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND
THE TIME THE HURRICANE MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA...BUT IGOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THAT PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WILL BE INVESTIGATING IGOR SHORTLY.

IGOR REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA SOON 
...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA.  THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
 


90 at Noon Saturday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

Better catch Jupiter next week in the night sky. It won’t be that big or bright again until 2022.

Jupiter will pass 368 million miles from Earth late Monday, its closest approach since 1963.

You can see it low in the east around dusk. Around midnight, it will be directly overhead. That’s because Earth will be passing between Jupiter and the sun, into the wee hours of Tuesday.

The solar system’s largest planet already appears as an incredibly bright star — three times brighter than the brightest star in the sky, Sirius. The only thing brighter in the night sky right now is our moon.

Binoculars and telescopes will dramatically improve the view as Jupiter, along with its many moons, rises in the east as the sun sets.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010


.SHORT TERM...WITH A RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN
SILENT 10 OR BELOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL AL AND GA SATURDAY. THIS MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST AS
THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND ONLY SCT CLOUD
COVER EACH AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY HOT. WILL START OUT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY
INCREASING TO MAINLY MID 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE MILD
SATURDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER
60S...BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 60S
AS COOLER DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION EAST OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STILL VERY LITTLE IN TERMS
OF  CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE LAST 2 NIGHT`S WORTH OF LONG TERM
DISCUSSIONS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT
THROUGHOUT THIS RECORD TYING HOT SUMMER (IN TALLAHASSEE) WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BOTH HOT AND
FAIRLY HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AVERAGING
ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DEPARTURES EXPECTED TO
BE WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THE FURTHER WE GET INTO SEPTEMBER. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE HINTING
AT A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...AND THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
STILL BE TO THE NORTH...SFC RIDGING BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST MAY
FINALLY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERHAPS 20-30 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS. AFTER VIEWING THE LATEST 00
UTC GFS RUN AND THE OLDER 12 UTC ECMWF RUN...WILL BE VERY INTERESTED
IN HOW THE NEW 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF HANDLES THE ABOVE SCENARIO
WHEN IT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
809 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 0917 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
AAF  : APALACHICOLA ARPT        :  89 /  70 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY ARPT          :  92 /  67 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY-FOLEY ARPT         :  93 /  70 /  0.00
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE RGNL ARPT    :  94 /  67 /  0.00
ABY  : SOUTHWEST GA ARPT        :  95 /  67 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT       :  92 /  66 /  0.00
TVI  : THOMASVILLE ARPT         :  94 /  67 /  0.00
TMA  : TIFTON ARPT              :  92 /  66 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN RGNL ARPT         :  96 /  68 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA MUNI ARPT       :  95 /  68 /  0.00
ECP  : NORTHWEST FL - INTL ARPT :  94 /  68 /  0.00


Hot and Dry at 1:15pm Friday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

94 degrees.
Sent from my BlackBerry

In a hurricane season chock full of “first time since hurricanes were acurately recorded”, one more statistic has popped up in 2010.

First,  Julia was reported to be the strongest eastern most hurricane (in the Atlantic), as a brief CAT 4.

Julia and Igor to be the first concurrent CAT 4 storms since accurate satellite recording of storms, basically over 60 years, in the Atlantic.

Julia was the first ever tropical stystem to prompt Tropical Storm Warnings over the Cape Verde Islands since warnings have been being issued.

Now Hurricane Karl, which went from a CAT 1 rapidly to a CAT 3, has become the first “recorded” major hurricane (of Category 3o or higher) in the extreme southern Gulf’s Bay of Campeche.

What’s next, dare I ask? Lets hope it doesn’t involve the word “landfall”

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ON HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
KARL...LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 105 MILES 
WEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


93 Degrees at 3:20 Thursday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

Approximately 5 1/2 hail.

by Justin and Crystal Bieberle of Witchita, KS

No substantial rain expected through the weekend…..

Hurricane Igor is a monster hurricane in terms of strength and size. To get a perspective on its size, it is the same distance from one end of the storm to the other as it is from Boston, Mass. to Richmond, Va., some 550 miles. That’s a 10-hour drive from one end to the other, and NASA satellites captured that entire distance in one image.

Because Hurricane Igor is a large storm and even if Igor doesn’t make a direct landfall in Bermuda, the extent of the winds (the wind field) is so large that the National Hurricane Center noted that Bermuda can be buffeted by winds of hurricane-force or tropical storm-force on its current track.

Maximum sustained winds this morning were near 145 mph, and although the hurricane-force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles (90 miles in diameter), tropical-storm-force winds extend as far as 225 miles (550 miles in diameter). Igor is expected to be close to Bermuda within the next 3 to 4 days.

Hurricane Igor as captured on September 14, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Douglas Wheelock, NASA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT

.BR TAE 0915 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
AAF  : APALACHICOLA ARPT        :  87 /  74 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY ARPT          :  92 /  61 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY-FOLEY ARPT         :  91 /  61 /  0.00
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE RGNL ARPT    :  91 /  64 /  0.00
ABY  : SOUTHWEST GA ARPT        :  91 /  63 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT       :  90 /  59 /  0.00
TVI  : THOMASVILLE ARPT         :  92 /  63 /  0.00
TMA  : TIFTON ARPT              :  89 /  60 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN RGNL ARPT         :  93 /  67 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA MUNI ARPT       :  94 /  69 /  0.00
ECP  : NORTHWEST FL - INTL ARPT :  94 /  71 /  0.00


Blue Skies at Noon, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

88 degrees with a nice breeze in Dothan!
Sent from my BlackBerry

As of September 15, 2010 we have had 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 13 tropical systems of the 2010 Hurricane Season. Hurricanes Earl, Igor and Julia have all reached Major Hurricane strength (Cat 3 or stronger, 110+mph),

 The National Hurricane Center predicted 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major back in the Spring. I would say we are well on track to match this!

Only 1 other time dating back to 1851 where there were 2 Cat. 4’s at the same time – and only for 6 hrs on 9/16/26!!

Here are TS Karl, Hurricane Igor, and Hurricane Julia (both Category 4s)

  • Two category four hurricanes existing simultaneously in the Atlantic basin has occurred only one other time since 1900: September 16, 1926  (Hurricane #4 and the Great Miami Hurricane).
  • There are only three other incidents of two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) at the same time: 1950 (Dog & Easy), 1958 (Helene & Ilsa), and 1999 (Floyd & Gert).
  • Hurricane Julia is the most intense hurricane to be located so far in the Eastern North Atlantic.
  • Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

    Click on the image above to watch the raw power of nature!

    TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
    500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
    
    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
    PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
    VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
    THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
    EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
    OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
    PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
    STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
    
    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
    A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
    TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
    KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
    THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
    MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
    GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
    MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
    COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
    MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
    GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
    
    KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
    AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
    INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
    YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
    AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
    RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
    BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
    CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
    WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL
    LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
    MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
    


    No Rain Clouds In Sight, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

    89 degrees at noon.
    Sent from my BlackBerry

    Invest Area 92L is looking very healthy….and could become our next Tropical Depression by Tuesday afternoon. It looks like this will stay well south of the United States..

    Photo taken Monday September 13th

    The Empire State building is struck on average more than 100 times a year! The building is almost 1,500 feet tall, making it the highest point in NYC, and an easy attraction for lightning!

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010
    
    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
    
    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
    IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF THE
    SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  
    
    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
    PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN POORLY
    ORGANIZED AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...
    SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS OVER THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
    40 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
    OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  REGARDLESS OF
    DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
    HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
    OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
    
    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.
    

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