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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 AS MENTIONED IN THE 0000 UTC SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS BETWEEN 50-55 KT...ALBEIT IN SOME HEAVY RAIN...ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THAT TIME WITH A PROMINENT BAND FORMING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 55 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALMOST ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE CYCLONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS RI GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS...NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF OR ONLY INCREASING MORE MODESTLY THROUGH 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS AT THIS POINT WHAT MIGHT LIMIT THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH BY DAY 4 AND REMAINS ABOVE ALL THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS. THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE REFORMED TO THE NORTH EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS AN ARTIFACT OF THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL ALL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SHOW TOMAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE ARE USUALLY THE MOST TRUSTWORTHY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THEIR SCENARIO...LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 77 / 52 / 0.00 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 77 / 55 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 76 / 52 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 75 / 49 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 76 / 51 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 73 / 48 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 73 / 49 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 73 / 49 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 73 / 47 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 77 / 53 / 0.00
A little chilly out there this morning! Dothan and surrounding cities dipped into the upper 40′s this Friday morning, after a low of 70 on Thursday! Frost Advisories have been issued to our north, as far south as Marengo County, AL, all the way up to Tupelo, and into the Birmingham area. Some lows will dip into the upper 30′s in North Alabama. For us in the Wiregrass, lows on Saturday will be between 44-47 by daybreak Saturday!
Sunny and breezy conditions will dominate the area Friday with Northerly winds 10-15 mph. The forecast remains dry through Monday. Temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 50′s by Election Day, and we will likely have scattered showers across Gulf coast Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the tropics, tropical storm Shary (pronounced Sha-REE) has developed in the Atlantic, about 220 miles SSW of Bermuda and will quickly pass by close to Bermuda on the east side late tonight.
Another strong tropical wave is showing strong signs of development Southwest of the Windward islands. If this system develops it could become, miraculously, the 19th named storm of the 2010 hurricane season!
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010 SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION. SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 833 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 1028 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 88 / 72 / 0.43 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 85 / 73 / 0.26 40J : PERRY : 86 / 69 / 0.22 CTY : CROSS CITY : 90 / 67 / 0.01 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 89 / 72 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 77 / 71 / 0.54 VAD : MOODY AFB : 88 / 70 / T VLD : VALDOSTA : 87 / 69 / 0.29 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 81 / 70 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 77 / 72 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 86 / 72 / TMA : TIFTON : 82 / 71 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 85 / 72 / : .END .BR TAE 1028 C DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 87 / 73 / T PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 83 / 75 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 81 / 69 / 0.20 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 80 / 65 / 0.39 PNS : PENSACOLA : 79 / 67 / 0.01 MOB : MOBILE : 77 / 63 / 0.78 DHN : DOTHAN : 77 / 67 / 1.36 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 76 / 66 / 0.63 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 77 / 64 / 1.95 MAI : MARIANNA : 83 / 75 / 0.39
The “Three Horsemen”…
Will any of these become our next TD? Or perhaps Tropical Storm Shary? I’m placing my bets on #3…
As we mentioned earlier today, Dothan easily hit a new high temperature record.
Today’s final reading was 91 degrees.
ASUS64 KBMX 280009 RTPAL : TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE : NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL : 705 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010 : : HIGH LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LAST 18 HOURS. PRECIP LAST 24 HOURS : READINGS AS OF 10/28/00Z OR 7PM LOCAL : .B BHM 1027 C DH18/TX/TN/PP : : STATION ID HI LO PCPN :ANNISTON :ANB 76 / 70 / 2.60 :AUBURN :AUO 88 / 73 / 0.01 :BIRMINGHAM INTL :BHM 77 / 64 / 2.26 :BROOKLEY FIELD :BFM 84 / 78 / 0.00 :CALERA :EET 78 / 71 / 1.25 :DECATUR :DCU 76 / 57 / 0.46 :DOTHAN :DHN 91 / 76 / 0.00 :EVERGREEN :GZH 88 / 74 / T :HUNTSVILLE :HSV 73 / 59 / 0.42 :MOBILE :MOB 84 / 77 / 0.68 :MONTGOMERY :MGM 90 / 76 / T :MUSCLE SHOALS :MSL 82 / 57 / 0.08 :TROY :TOI 88 / 75 / 0.01 :TUSCALOOSA :TCL 81 / 63 / 0.10 :PINSON :PSNA1 78 / 63 / 2.52
We passed the old record high of 86 degrees around midday today in Dothan.
Probably be 90 or higher before we’re done this afternoon.
This will be the 3rd record high in a row for us.
If it felt a little warm Tuesday, it was! Dothan set another afternoon high record when the themometer hit 90 degrees. The old record was 89 in 1986.
Wednesday could be another record-setter. The high temperature record for Dothan on October 27th is only 86, set in 1978. The forecast is for upper 80s.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 832 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 1026 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 86 / 75 / 0.19 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 84 / 76 / 0.01 40J : PERRY : 85 / 72 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 87 / 71 / 0.01 JAX : JACKSONVILLE : 89 / 69 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 91 / 75 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 89 / 71 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 87 / 73 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 88 / 73 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 90 / 75 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 90 / 75 / TMA : TIFTON : 87 / 73 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 88 / 75 / ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 85 / 77 / T PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 83 / 76 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 83 / 76 / T CEW : CRESTVIEW : 86 / 73 / 0.01 PNS : PENSACOLA : 85 / 76 / T MOB : MOBILE : 86 / 76 / 0.10 DHN : DOTHAN : 90 / 74 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 88 / 74 / T LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 89 / 74 / 0.01 MAI : MARIANNA : 92 / 75 / T
In the Corn Belt, showers and locally severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of a cold front are racing eastward. Rainy, windy conditions have halted late-season corn and soybean harvest activities, but moisture is highly beneficial for recently planted winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt.
In the South, showers and thunderstorms along the tail of a cold front are spreading across Arkansas. Elsewhere, autumn fieldwork continues to advance under a warm, breezy weather regime. However, some producers are awaiting a boost in soil moisture before planting winter grains and cover crops.
Outlook: A winter-like storm currently centered over Minnesota will peak in intensity tonight before lifting into south-central Canada and weakening. Until the storm weakens, high winds will rake the northern Plains and the Midwest, while locally severe thunderstorms will sweep across the Midwest and into the East. Across the north-central U.S., snow will subside by mid-week. Cool weather will trail the storm, but warm conditions will return to the western half of the U.S. by week’s end. Late in the week, wet weather will overspread the Pacific Coast States. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 31 – November 4 calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions in Florida. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in the Northeast, northern and central California, and the Northwest.
|1215||2 S CHEBANSE||IROQUOIS||IL||4097||8791||BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN SIGHTED NEAR 3250N AND 1100 EAST ROAD. NO DAMAGE. (LOT)|
|1240||4 E PEOTONE||WILL||IL||4133||8772||PRELIMINARY TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORT RELAYED BY WILL COUNTY E.M. DAMAGE TO 30651 SOUTH WILL CENTER ROAD AND POSSIBLY OTHER HOMES IN THE AREA. (LOT)|
|1302||3 WSW RACINE||RACINE||WI||4272||8784||21ST AND GREEN BAY … FROM THIS INTERSECTION TO ABOUT A MILE TO THE NORTHEAST … REPORTS OF TREES UPROOTED AND DOWN … TREES ON HOMES … ONE TELEPHONE POLE DOWN … SHINGLE D (MKX)|
|1322||2 NE COLDWATER||CALLOWAY||KY||3667||8843||(PAH)|
|1405||3 ENE KOKOMO||HOWARD||IN||4049||8608||TORNADO SPOTTED AT 300 E AND 100 N. TREES DOWN … SHED AND HOUSES DAMAGED. (IND)|
|1458||4 S DRAKESBORO||MUHLENBERG||KY||3716||8705||… UNCONFIRMED … REPORTED NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF DUNMOR BY PUBLIC THROUGH LAW ENFORCEMENT. (PAH)|
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a High risk for Severe weather for portions of Kentucky, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan today, and Moderate or Slight risk for severe storms for multiple states. Numerous tornado warnings and complete county to county severe thunderstorm warnings have already elapsed. The threat for severe weather has extended as far south as Birmingham, but looks more likely for Huntsville by early afternoon.
High risk days are issued very rarely, usually no more than once or twice a year.
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 720…WW 721…WW 722…
DISCUSSION…A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEEPENING
FROM N-CNTRL MS NWD TO E OF MKL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO TSTMS
LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
WARMING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 300-400 M2/S2…MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGEST A THREAT LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.
AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
Dothan topped out at 89 degrees Monday. The old record was 88 from 2003. Here's a round up of lows, highs, and rainfall: MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 824 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 1025 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 84 / 65 / 0.03 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 83 / 72 / 0.65 40J : PERRY : 85 / 66 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 86 / 66 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE : 89 / 62 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 89 / 63 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 83 / 65 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 81 / 64 / 0.07 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 86 / 63 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 88 / 63 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 84 / 68 / TMA : TIFTON : 83 / 67 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 84 / 67 / ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 84 / 68 / 0.00 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 81 / 72 / 0.06 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 82 / 74 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 86 / 70 / 0.01 PNS : PENSACOLA : 86 / 72 / 0.03 MOB : MOBILE : 84 / 70 / 1.30 DHN : DOTHAN : 89 / 65 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 88 / 67 / T LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 89 / 66 / 0.02 MAI : MARIANNA : 89 / 65 / 0.00
WWUS62 KTAE 251138
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 713
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010
The National Weather Service Has Issued Tornado Watch 713 in Effect Until 2 PM EDT /1 PM Cdt/ This Afternoon for The Following Areas
in alabama this watch includes 5 counties
in southeast alabama
coffee dale geneva henry houston
in florida this watch includes 10 counties
in northwest florida
bay calhoun franklin gadsden gulf holmes jackson liberty walton washington
in georgia this watch includes 12 counties
in southwest georgia
baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early lee miller quitman randolph seminole terrell
this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, apalachicola, arlington, ashford, bainbridge, blakely, blountstown,
bonifay, callaway, carrabelle, chattahoochee, chipley,
colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts, crystal lake, cuthbert,
daleville, dawson, de funiak springs, donalsonville,
douglasville, edison, enterprise, five points, fort gaines, fort rucker, geneva, georgetown, graceville, hartford,
headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey, leary, leesburg,
lynn haven, lynn haven, malone, malvern, marianna, morgan,
newton, ozark, panama city, port st. joe, quincy, rehobeth, samson, shellman, slocomb, smithville, sneads, sweetwater,
taylor, upper grand lagoon, webb, wewahitchka and white city.
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT. BASED ON THESE AND EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS... THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO THE CORE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED ON THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR. AFTER EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN. HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.
La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation.
“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”
“Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”
Regional highlights include:
- Pacific Northwest: colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns;
- Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
- Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
- Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
- Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
- Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
- Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
- Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;
- Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;
- Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
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TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U. S. TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT. AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.
With Super Typhoon Megi now heading toward Hong Kong in southern China, here’s a little info about typhoons.
For organizational purposes, the northern Pacific Ocean is divided into three regions: the eastern (North America to 140°W), central (140°W to 180°), and western (180° to 100°E).
A Pacific typhoon, then, is a tropical cyclone in the northern Pacific Ocean west of 180°.
Within the Northwestern Pacific there are no official “typhoon seasons” since tropical cyclones form throughout the year.
The majority of storms form between May and December while the minimum is between January and April.
The Northwestern Pacific features some of the most intense tropical cyclones on record.
Click here to watch the video: AccuWeather.com – Weather Video – AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast for 2010-2011.
Tropical Storm Richard has formed in the Northwest Carribean Sea mid-morning Thursday. This storm is expected to intensify quickly into a Category 1 Hurricane as it moves towards the tip of the Yucutan Penninsula. Where it goes from there is where it gets interesting. In our last very active season of 2005, Hurricane Wilma developed in October and took nearly an identical track as Richard’s models are painting. The waters of the southern Gulf are still warm enough to support a significant hurricane, as long as it can organize early enough.
We tend to see a lot of late season storms head towards the Florida Peninsula, especially from the west side, because late season storms tend to develop closer to home in the Carribean than early season Atlantic storms, and be held to the south and move east due to Fall cold fronts pushing down from the Southern United States.
With whatever this storm does, it needs to be watched very closely, especially from Tampa to Ft. Myers by late next week. The system is for right now not a threat to the northern gulf, but may provide available moisture to help promote a second series of rain showers for us by late next week. We shall wait and see…..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST... SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 314 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010 .LONG TERM... (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE BEGINS TO MOISTEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND THE LOCAL AREA IS PLACED IN A REGION OF MOIST RETURN FLOW. BY MONDAY...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BY MID WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PULL NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.