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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AS MENTIONED IN THE 0000 UTC SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS BETWEEN 50-55 KT...ALBEIT IN SOME HEAVY
RAIN...ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THAT TIME WITH A PROMINENT BAND FORMING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
RAISED TO 55 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

TOMAS IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALMOST ALL
QUADRANTS...AND THE CYCLONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS GOING THROUGH A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  SHIPS RI GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  AFTER 24
HOURS...NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY
LEVELING OFF OR ONLY INCREASING MORE MODESTLY THROUGH 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND IT
IS NOT OBVIOUS AT THIS POINT WHAT MIGHT LIMIT THAT TREND.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING TO
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH BY DAY 4 AND REMAINS ABOVE ALL THE RELIABLE
INTENSITY MODELS.

THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE REFORMED TO THE NORTH EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS AN ARTIFACT OF
THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND SHOW TOMAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THESE ARE USUALLY THE MOST
TRUSTWORTHY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FAVORS THEIR SCENARIO...LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM CDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  77 /  52 /  0.00
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  77 /  55 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  76 /  52 /  0.00
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  75 /  49 /  0.00
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  76 /  51 /  0.00
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  73 /  48 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  73 /  49 /  0.00
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  73 /  49 /  0.00
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  73 /  47 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  77 /  53 /  0.00

A little chilly out there this morning! Dothan and surrounding cities dipped into the upper 40′s this Friday morning, after a low of 70 on Thursday! Frost Advisories have been issued to our north, as far south as Marengo County, AL, all the way up to Tupelo, and into the Birmingham area. Some lows will dip into the upper 30′s in North Alabama. For us in the Wiregrass, lows on Saturday will be between 44-47 by daybreak Saturday!

Sunny and breezy conditions will dominate the area  Friday with Northerly winds 10-15 mph. The forecast remains dry through Monday. Temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 50′s by Election Day, and we will likely have scattered showers across Gulf coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the tropics, tropical storm Shary (pronounced Sha-REE) has developed in the Atlantic, about 220 miles SSW of Bermuda and will quickly pass by close to Bermuda on the east side late tonight.

Another strong tropical wave is showing strong signs of development Southwest of the Windward islands. If this system develops it could become, miraculously, the 19th named storm of the 2010 hurricane season!

TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 1028 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  88 /  72 /  0.43
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  85 /  73 /  0.26
40J  : PERRY                    :  86 /  69 /  0.22
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  90 /  67 /  0.01
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  89 /  72 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  77 /  71 /  0.54
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  88 /  70 /    T
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  87 /  69 /  0.29
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  81 /  70 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  77 /  72 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  86 /  72 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  82 /  71 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  85 /  72 /
:
.END


.BR TAE 1028 C DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM CDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  87 /  73 /    T
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  83 /  75 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  81 /  69 /  0.20
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  80 /  65 /  0.39
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  79 /  67 /  0.01
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  77 /  63 /  0.78
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  77 /  67 /  1.36
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  76 /  66 /  0.63
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  77 /  64 /  1.95
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  83 /  75 /  0.39

 

The “Three Horsemen”…

Will any of these become our next TD? Or perhaps Tropical Storm Shary? I’m placing my bets on #3…

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook


This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks
Click for Eastern Pacific
GIS data:  .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

3. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Here’s a look at what many Wiregrass residents are waking up to this Thursday! Frontal line of showers is bringing rain to the entire viewing area through the morning hours.

MUCH drier, sunnier and cooler weather along the way!!

As we mentioned earlier today, Dothan easily hit a new high temperature record.

Today’s final reading was 91 degrees.

ASUS64 KBMX 280009
RTPAL 
:  TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
:  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
:  705 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010
:
:  HIGH LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LAST 18 HOURS.  PRECIP LAST 24 HOURS
:  READINGS AS OF 10/28/00Z OR 7PM LOCAL
:
.B BHM 1027 C DH18/TX/TN/PP
:
:  STATION          ID     HI     LO     PCPN
:ANNISTON          :ANB    76   / 70   / 2.60
:AUBURN            :AUO    88   / 73   / 0.01
:BIRMINGHAM INTL   :BHM    77   / 64   / 2.26
:BROOKLEY FIELD    :BFM    84   / 78   / 0.00
:CALERA            :EET    78   / 71   / 1.25
:DECATUR           :DCU    76   / 57   / 0.46
:DOTHAN            :DHN    91   / 76   / 0.00
:EVERGREEN         :GZH    88   / 74   / T 
:HUNTSVILLE        :HSV    73   / 59   / 0.42
:MOBILE            :MOB    84   / 77   / 0.68
:MONTGOMERY        :MGM    90   / 76   / T 
:MUSCLE SHOALS     :MSL    82   / 57   / 0.08
:TROY              :TOI    88   / 75   / 0.01
:TUSCALOOSA        :TCL    81   / 63   / 0.10
:PINSON            :PSNA1  78   / 63   / 2.52

We passed the old record high of 86 degrees around midday today in Dothan.

Probably be 90 or higher before we’re done this afternoon.

This will be the 3rd record high in a row for us.



Blue skies at 2pm, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless Phone

If it felt a little warm Tuesday, it was!  Dothan set another afternoon high record when the themometer hit 90 degrees.  The old record was 89 in 1986.

Wednesday could be another record-setter.  The high temperature record for Dothan on October 27th is only 86, set in 1978.  The forecast is for upper 80s.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT

.BR TAE 1026 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  86 /  75 /  0.19
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  84 /  76 /  0.01
40J  : PERRY                    :  85 /  72 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  87 /  71 /  0.01
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE             :  89 /  69 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  91 /  75 /  0.00
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  89 /  71 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  87 /  73 /  0.00
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  88 /  73 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  90 /  75 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  90 /  75 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  87 /  73 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  88 /  75 /
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  85 /  77 /    T
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  83 /  76 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  83 /  76 /    T
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  86 /  73 /  0.01
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  85 /  76 /    T
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  86 /  76 /  0.10
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  90 /  74 /  0.00
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  88 /  74 /    T
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  89 /  74 /  0.01
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  92 /  75 /    T


Blustery Day in Dothan, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

20 MPH sustained winds

www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

Weather Report: Blizzard Warning For Northern Plains, Warm & Breezy In South

10/26/2010 08:04AM

On the Plains, a blizzard warning is in effect for much of North Dakota and parts of eastern Montana, where winds are increasing and precipitation is changing to snow. High winds could topple corn stalks on the northern Plains; 45% of the corn crop remained in the field in North Dakota on October 24, along with 36% in South Dakota and 26% in Nebraska.

In the Corn Belt, showers and locally severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of a cold front are racing eastward. Rainy, windy conditions have halted late-season corn and soybean harvest activities, but moisture is highly beneficial for recently planted winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt.

In the South, showers and thunderstorms along the tail of a cold front are spreading across Arkansas. Elsewhere, autumn fieldwork continues to advance under a warm, breezy weather regime. However, some producers are awaiting a boost in soil moisture before planting winter grains and cover crops.

Outlook: A winter-like storm currently centered over Minnesota will peak in intensity tonight before lifting into south-central Canada and weakening. Until the storm weakens, high winds will rake the northern Plains and the Midwest, while locally severe thunderstorms will sweep across the Midwest and into the East. Across the north-central U.S., snow will subside by mid-week. Cool weather will trail the storm, but warm conditions will return to the western half of the U.S. by week’s end. Late in the week, wet weather will overspread the Pacific Coast States. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 31 – November 4 calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions in Florida. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in the Northeast, northern and central California, and the Northwest.

from Cattlenetwork.com
1215   2 S CHEBANSE IROQUOIS IL 4097 8791 BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN SIGHTED NEAR 3250N AND 1100 EAST ROAD. NO DAMAGE. (LOT)
1240   4 E PEOTONE WILL IL 4133 8772 PRELIMINARY TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORT RELAYED BY WILL COUNTY E.M. DAMAGE TO 30651 SOUTH WILL CENTER ROAD AND POSSIBLY OTHER HOMES IN THE AREA. (LOT)
1302   3 WSW RACINE RACINE WI 4272 8784 21ST AND GREEN BAY … FROM THIS INTERSECTION TO ABOUT A MILE TO THE NORTHEAST … REPORTS OF TREES UPROOTED AND DOWN … TREES ON HOMES … ONE TELEPHONE POLE DOWN … SHINGLE D (MKX)
1322   2 NE COLDWATER CALLOWAY KY 3667 8843 (PAH)
1405   3 ENE KOKOMO HOWARD IN 4049 8608 TORNADO SPOTTED AT 300 E AND 100 N. TREES DOWN … SHED AND HOUSES DAMAGED. (IND)
1458   4 S DRAKESBORO MUHLENBERG KY 3716 8705 … UNCONFIRMED … REPORTED NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF DUNMOR BY PUBLIC THROUGH LAW ENFORCEMENT. (PAH)

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a High risk for Severe weather for portions of Kentucky, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan today, and Moderate or Slight risk for severe storms for multiple states. Numerous tornado warnings and complete county to county severe thunderstorm warnings have already elapsed. The threat for severe weather has extended as far south as Birmingham, but looks more likely for Huntsville by early afternoon.

High risk days are issued very rarely, usually no more than once or twice a year.

 URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   930 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          NORTHERN ALABAMA
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL
   500 PM CDT.
  
   …THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…
  
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
  
   REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 720WW 721WW 722
  
   DISCUSSION…A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEEPENING
   FROM N-CNTRL MS NWD TO E OF MKL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO TSTMS
   LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH
   OF 300-400 M2/S2…MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGEST A THREAT LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.
  
   AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

Dothan topped out at 89 degrees Monday. The old record was 88 from 2003.
Here's a round up of lows, highs, and rainfall:


MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
824 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 1025 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  84 /  65 /  0.03
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  83 /  72 /  0.65
40J  : PERRY                    :  85 /  66 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  86 /  66 /  0.00
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE             :  89 /  62 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  89 /  63 /  0.00
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  83 /  65 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  81 /  64 /  0.07
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  86 /  63 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  88 /  63 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  84 /  68 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  83 /  67 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  84 /  67 /
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  84 /  68 /  0.00
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  81 /  72 /  0.06
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  82 /  74 /  0.00
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  86 /  70 /  0.01
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  86 /  72 /  0.03
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  84 /  70 /  1.30
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  89 /  65 /  0.00
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  88 /  67 /    T
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  89 /  66 /  0.02
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  89 /  65 /  0.00


Clouds Building at 12:45pm, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my BlackBerry

A mix of Altostratus & Cumulus.. Warm & Windy day!

WWUS62 KTAE 251138
WCNTAE

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 713
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

The National Weather Service Has Issued Tornado Watch 713 in Effect Until 2 PM EDT /1 PM Cdt/ This Afternoon for The Following Areas

in alabama this watch includes 5 counties

in southeast alabama

coffee dale geneva henry houston

in florida this watch includes 10 counties

in northwest florida

bay calhoun franklin gadsden gulf holmes jackson liberty walton washington

in georgia this watch includes 12 counties

in southwest georgia

baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early lee miller quitman randolph seminole terrell

this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, apalachicola, arlington, ashford, bainbridge, blakely, blountstown,
bonifay, callaway, carrabelle, chattahoochee, chipley,
colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts, crystal lake, cuthbert,
daleville, dawson, de funiak springs, donalsonville,
douglasville, edison, enterprise, five points, fort gaines, fort rucker, geneva, georgetown, graceville, hartford,
headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey, leary, leesburg,
lynn haven, lynn haven, malone, malvern, marianna, morgan,
newton, ozark, panama city, port st. joe, quincy, rehobeth, samson, shellman, slocomb, smithville, sneads, sweetwater,
taylor, upper grand lagoon, webb, wewahitchka and white city.

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  THE
CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA
FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIR
FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND
SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT.  BASED ON THESE AND
EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND
MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.

WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING
UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM.  THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15
KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO
THE CORE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH
BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS
DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL
NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON
THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR.  AFTER EMERGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.

HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. 

The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.

La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation.

“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”

“Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Regional highlights include:

  • Pacific Northwest:  colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns;
  • Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
  • Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
  • Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
  • Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
  • Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
  • Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
  • Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;
  • Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;
  • Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/US.National.Weather.Service.gov.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007
MB. BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.

RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS
MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT
LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE
CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE
SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW
TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD. THE
CYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U.
S. TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING
INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT. AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT OF THIS
EVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.

With Super Typhoon Megi now heading toward Hong Kong in southern China, here’s a little info about typhoons.

A typhoon is a tropical cyclone that develops in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean between 180° and 100°E.

For organizational purposes, the northern Pacific Ocean is divided into three regions: the eastern (North America to 140°W), central (140°W to 180°), and western (180° to 100°E).

A Pacific typhoon, then, is a tropical cyclone in the northern Pacific Ocean west of 180°.

Within the Northwestern Pacific there are no official “typhoon seasons” since tropical cyclones form throughout the year.

The majority of storms form between May and December while the minimum is between January and April.

The Northwestern Pacific features some of the most intense tropical cyclones on record.

Click here to watch the video:  AccuWeather.com – Weather Video – AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast for 2010-2011.



Tropical Storm Richard has formed in the Northwest Carribean Sea mid-morning Thursday. This storm is expected to intensify quickly into a Category 1 Hurricane as it moves towards the tip of the Yucutan Penninsula. Where it goes from there is where it gets interesting. In our last very active season of 2005, Hurricane Wilma developed in October and took nearly an identical track as Richard’s models are painting. The waters of the southern Gulf are still warm enough to support a significant hurricane, as long as it can organize early enough.

We tend to see a lot of late season storms head towards the Florida Peninsula, especially from the west side, because late season storms tend to develop closer to home in the Carribean than early season Atlantic storms, and be held to the south and move east due to Fall cold fronts pushing down from the Southern United States.

With whatever this storm does, it needs to be watched very closely, especially from Tampa to Ft. Myers by late next week. The system is for right now not a threat to the northern gulf, but may provide available moisture to help promote a second series of rain showers for us by late next week. We shall wait and see…..

Here is the path of Hurricane Wilma from October 2005…

Tropical Depression 19…which is expected to become Tropical Storm Richard on Thursday. Here is it’s models projected path…


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  RECONNAISSANCE DATA
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE
TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS.

SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02.  THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...
SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER
THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH
THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TROUGH.  AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN
A DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010


.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE BEGINS
TO MOISTEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND THE LOCAL AREA IS PLACED IN A REGION OF
MOIST RETURN FLOW. BY MONDAY...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BY MID WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PULL
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN TAKE OVER.

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