AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010


.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE BEGINS
TO MOISTEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND THE LOCAL AREA IS PLACED IN A REGION OF
MOIST RETURN FLOW. BY MONDAY...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BY MID WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PULL
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN TAKE OVER.
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