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MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 834 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 1020 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 86 / 52 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 83 / 58 / 0.00 40J : PERRY : 83 / 52 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 84 / 55 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE : 83 / 57 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 83 / 60 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 84 / 58 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 84 / 53 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 82 / 55 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 82 / 55 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 82 / 61 / TMA : TIFTON : 81 / 58 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 85 / 58 / ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 85 / 56 / 0.00 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 78 / 58 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 84 / 60 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 85 / 53 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 84 / 64 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 81 / 58 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 82 / 59 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 81 / 56 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 83 / 53 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 86 / 59 / 0.00
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT…THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Like a pair of formidable cloud banks colliding, two marquee weather predictors are brewing up a storm of contention with their contrasting winter forecasts.
According to the 2011 edition of “The Old Farmer’s Almanac,” which bills itself as “North America’s oldest continuously published periodical,” this coming winter will see a period of “global cooling” in which most of the nation will see colder-than-normal temperatures, The Associated Press reported.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which was formed in 1870 has reached a different conclusion, however. NOAA is forecasting a warmer winter overall for most of the United States, with the biggest temperature increases coming in the Southeast, but colder weather befalling the Northwest.
NOAA also points out that as of mid-August, 2010 has been shaping up to be the earth’s warmest year in recorded history. In addition, the agency finds El Nino growing stronger.
What accounts for the differing prognostications? Surge Desk breaks it down:
How does the Old Farmer’s Almanac make its long term weather predictions?
It’s classified! Janice Stillman, the editor in chief of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, recently described the publication’s methodology by saying that while a host of methods were used, a key component in the mix was a “secret formula.” What is known about how the Old Famer’s Almanac makes its predictions is that it includes analyses of planetary positioning, ocean tides and sun spot activity.
How does NOAA make its long term weather predictions?
NOAA discounts the indicators considered by the Old Farmer’s Almanac, calling them scientifically dubious. Nor does the agency rely on any secret formulas. In large part, NOAA’s long term weather predictions are based on the fluctuation of El Nino or La Nina weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean. In addition, NOAA tracks long term data trends, as well as oscillations in 30-60 day weather patterns, computer forecast modeling, and other means to help determine odds of above-or-below-normal temperatures.
Who has been more accurate in predicting weather, NOAA or the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
On its website, the Old Farmer’s almanac boasts that its forecasts are “traditionally 80 percent accurate.” The National Weather Service makes no such specific claims, and takes pains to offer caveats on the process of making long-term predictions, such as the following:
In general, long range forecasts for temperature are usually more accurate than these for precipitation. This is because temperature varies only by small increments from place to place; it is more constant. On the other hand, precipitation is widely variable through time and from place to place. Even in short term forecasts out to 48 hours, precipitation forecasts are written as a probability of occurring. Therefore, it would seem more difficult to extend a precipitation forecast out to several months.
The accuracy of any outlook varies both regionally and seasonally. For example, coastal areas experience a more stabilized climate throughout the year, making it less changeable and easier to predict.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Solar storms don’t always travel in a straight line. But once they start heading in our direction, they can accelerate rapidly, gathering steam for a harder hit on Earth’s magnetic field.
So say researchers who have been using data from NASA’s twin STEREO spacecraft to unravel the 3D structure of solar storms. Their findings are presented in today’s issue of Nature Communications.
“This really surprised us,” says co-author Peter Gallagher of Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland. “Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can start out going one way—and then turn in a different direction.”
The result was so strange, at first they thought they’d done something wrong. After double- and triple-checking their work on dozens of eruptions, however, the team knew they were onto something.
“Our 3D visualizations clearly show that solar storms can be deflected from high solar latitudes and end up hitting planets they might otherwise have missed,” says lead author Jason Byrne, a graduate student at the Trinity Center for High Performance Computing.
The key to their analysis was an innovative computing technique called “multiscale image processing.” Gallagher explains:
“‘Multiscale processing’ means taking an image and sorting the things in it according to size. Suppose you’re interested in race cars. If you have a photo that contains a bowl of fruit, a person, and a dragster, you could use multiscale processing to single out the race car and study its characteristics.”
In medical research, multiscale processing has been used to identify individual nuclei in crowded pictures of cells. In astronomy, it comes in handy for picking galaxies out of a busy star field. Gallagher and colleagues are the first to refine and use it in the realm of solar physics.
“We applied the multiscale technique to coronagraph data from NASA’s twin STEREO spacecraft,” Gallagher continues. “Our computer was able to look at starry images cluttered with streamers and bright knots of solar wind and zero in on the CMEs.”
STEREO-A and STEREO–B are widely separated and can see CMEs from different points of view. This allowed the team to create fully-stereoscopic models of the storm clouds and track them as they billowed away from the sun.
One of the first things they noticed was how CMEs trying to go “up”—out of the plane of the solar system and away from the planets—are turned back down again. Gallagher confesses that they had to “crack the books” and spend some time at the white board to fully understand the phenomenon. In the end, the explanation was simple:
The sun’s global magnetic field, which is shaped like a bar magnet, guides the wayward CMEs back toward the sun’s equator. When the clouds reach low latitudes, they get caught up in the solar wind and head out toward the planets—”like a cork bobbing along a river,” says Gallagher.
Once a CME is embedded in the solar wind, it can experience significant acceleration. “This is a result of aerodynamic drag,” says Byrne. “If the wind is blowing fast enough, it drags the CME along with it—something we actually observed in the STEREO data.”
Past studies from other missions had revealed tantalizing hints of this CME-redirection and acceleration process, but STEREO is the first to see it unfold from nearly beginning to end.
“The ability to reconstruct the path of a solar storm through space could be of great benefit to forecasters of space weather at Earth,” notes Alex Young, STEREO Senior Scientist at the Goddard Space Flight Center. “Knowing when a CME will arrive is crucial for predicting the onset of geomagnetic storms.”
“Furthermore,” he says, “the image processing techniques developed by the Trinity team in collaboration with NASA Goddard can be used in applications ranging from surveillance to medical diagnostics.”
The huge storm striking the Philippines left at least one man drowned there, and was expected to plunge later into China, where authorities evacuated 100,000 people from a coastal province.
The storm could head to Vietnam later in the week, where dozens of deaths from flooding have already been reported in recent days.
Thousands of Filipinos sought shelter while authorities warned millions of residents and rice farmers along the typhoon’s path to look out for damage to crops, homes and power lines.
Megi packed sustained winds of 225 km/h and gusts of 260 km/h as it made landfall midday Monday at Palanan Bay in northeastern Isabela province, but it was losing some of its power while crossing the mountains of the Philippines main northern island of Luzon, forecasters said.
One man trying to rescue his water buffalo slipped and fell into a river and probably drowned, said Bonifacio Cuarteros, an official with the Cagayan provincial disaster agency.
As it crashed ashore, the typhoon whipped up huge waves and toppled electricity poles, cutting off power, phone and internet services in many areas. There was zero visibility and radio reports said the wind was so powerful that people could not take more than a step at a time.
More than 3,000 people in coastal areas moved to school buildings and town halls that were turned into evacuation centres. Ships and fishing vessels were told to stay in ports, and several domestic flights also were cancelled.
Thousands of military reserve officers and volunteers were on standby, along with helicopters, including six Chinooks that were committed by U.S. troops holding war exercises with Filipino soldiers near Manila, said Benito Ramos, a top disaster-response official.
“This is like preparing for war,” Ramos, a retired army general, told The Associated Press. “We know the past lessons, and we’re aiming for zero casualties.”
In July, an angry President Benigno Aquino III fired the head of the weather bureau for failing to predict that a typhoon would hit Manila. That storm killed more than 100 people in Manila and outlying provinces.
Weather forecasts said the capital is expected to be spared a direct hit this time, although the lowest weather alert was in effect Monday with preschools closed.
Megi was the most powerful typhoon to hit the Philippines in four years, government forecasters said. A 2006 howler with 250 km/h winds set off mudslides that buried entire villages, killing about 1,000 people.
Floods kill dozens in Vietnam
In central Vietnam, officials said 20 people on a bus were swept away Monday by strong currents from a flooded river, while another 17 managed to save themselves by swimming or clinging to trees or power poles.
The bus, travelling from the Central Highlands province of Dak Nong to the capital, Hanoi, was yanked off the country’s main corridor, Highway 1, said local official Nguyen Hien Luong, head of Nghi Xuan district in Ha Tinh province.
One woman survived by treading water against the current for about 3½ hours, but was forced to let go of her daughter due to exhaustion before rescuers reached her. The child remains missing.
Officials said 24 other people died in central Vietnam from flooding over the weekend, and said Megi could add to the misery.
“People are exhausted,” Vietnamese disaster official Nguyen Ngoc Giai said by telephone from Quang Binh province. “Many people have not even returned to their flooded homes from previous flooding, while many others who returned home several days ago were forced to be evacuated again.”
China’s National Meteorological Center said Megi was expected to enter the South China Sea on Tuesday, threatening southeastern coastal provinces. The centre issued its second-highest alert for potential “wild winds and huge waves,” warning vessels to take shelter and urging authorities to brace for emergencies.
Floods triggered by heavy rains forced nearly 140,000 people to evacuate from homes in the southern island province of Hainan, where heavy rains left thousands homeless over the weekend, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Monday.
Thailand also reported flooding that paralyzed parts of the country, submerging thousands of homes and vehicles and halting train service. No casualties were reported, but nearly 100 elephants were evacuated from a popular tourist attraction north of the capital.
From The Associated Press
Fall is back…..this morning we were 14 degrees cooler than Thursday morning, with a low in Dothan of 44 degrees. The next few days will be comfortable! Chilly in the AM’s and mild by the afternoon, with highs around 78-81. Lows 42-48 with a few isolated 30’s! Great weather for football, camping, hunting etc! Here are some lows from Friday Morning
Panama City 43
WTNT43 KNHC 130857
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
PAULA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE 96 KT…WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT AN 86-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OBSERVED WERE 81-82 KT. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION…ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF PAULA HAVE BEEN COOLING
DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85
KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN BY 3 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY…THE CYCLONE IS NOW ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A FIELD OF
HIGHER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES…WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEARLY CONSTANT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS…
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS…PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO…BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD…DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS…WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM
DEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER
MODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA…THE KEYS…AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS MODEL…TVCN…HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD…THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
PAULA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY NOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KT AND RECON INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PAULA DUE TO
VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF PAULA
INTERACTS WITH LAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED…THEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE
OF THE WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.
Work to rescue 33 miners from a copper mine 2,200 feet below Chile’s Atacama Desert is about to take a dramatic turn.
The first miners could be pulled from the mine as early as Wednesday. Chilean Health Minister Jaime Manalich says they are in good spirits and, overall, in very good health. However, some of the men have shown signs of anxiety and some have had minor cardiac issues, Manalich added.
The miners will be switched over to a liquid diet six hours before they begin their trip to the surface in case they vomit on the way up. The rescue capsule will spin as it rises to the surface, possibly causing dizziness and even panic.
MIR astronaut Jerry Linenger knows something about isolation and confinement. He says his five months in space left him weak and with bone loss. “Down in the mines you have gravity pulling you down. There will be disorientation–turning your head will feel like doing 100 backflips in a row,” he said.
Chilean Mining Minister Laurence Golborne is concerned about the miners being re-introduced to sunlight abruptly. Special sunglasses have been sent in an effort to make sure the miners don’t suffer damage to their retinas.
The miners have been monitored very closely since they were first trapped on August 5. The miners were given special shirts and shorts that pull sweat away from the body due to concern about skin infections.
They’re also wearing special socks that help prevent athlete’s foot and other fungal infections. They’ve even had a series of vaccinations including a tetanus booster and flu shot to help boost their immune systems.
The men have been exercising for an hour a day. One of the miners, Yonni Barrios, is a paramedic and has been weighing his fellow miners daily, taking blood tests and doing daily urine analysis.
That information is downloaded to a Palm Pilot that has been sending the information back to the surface so that medics and personal trainers can check to make sure the miners are well. They have been tailoring the miners’ exercise routines to the day’s figures.
Dr. Bailus Walker, an environmental and occupational medicine expert at Howard University Medical Center, says one concern is the effect the barometric pressure will have on their bodies as they’re brought up.
“You’ll see muscular aches and pains in the joints called ‘the bends’ as a result of the decompression. You could see some respiratory difficulties called ‘the chokes.’ You’ll see increased blood pressure, and some lung damage–but the adequate supply of oxygen should keep lung problems at a minimum.”
Experts say psychological adjustments will be a huge factor. “These men spent 20 days totally cut off in the dark until the fist bore hole was made,” Linenger said. “So they were in survival mode, which is tough psychologically because you are in a life and death situation.”
Once out, the miners will be examined on site and hospitalized for a mandatory two days. During that time they’ll be monitored and receive physical and mental health care.
Doctors will keep an eye out for things like nightmares, panic attacks, anxiety and claustrophobia, among other potential issues.
First, the facts: the late evening update on Tropical Storm Paula…
The satellite image on top is from late Monday afternoon, and the second image is from Monday mid evening. Note the more northward position from image 1 to image 2. Paula is expected to move in a slow semicircle as it is too far south (for now) to be pulled north out of the Caribbean (see current projected path below).
Paula looks like it’s going to hang around the Caribbean for a few days.
Here’s the late evening advisory and discussion:
Tropical Storm Paula Advisory Number 2 Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1100 Pm Edt Mon Oct 11 2010 ...Paula Continues To Strengthen...Expected To Become A Hurricane Soon... Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information ----------------------------------------------- Location...16.8n 84.6w About 90 Mi...140 Km Ene Of Isla Guanaja Honduras About 295 Mi...475 Km Sse Of Cozumel Mexico Maximum Sustained Winds...70 Mph...110 Km/Hr Present Movement...Nw Or 315 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/Hr Minimum Central Pressure...994 Mb...29.35 Inches Watches And Warnings -------------------- Changes With This Advisory... The Government Of Mexico Has Extended The Hurricane Warning Northward To Cabo Catoche. A Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued For The North Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula From West Of Cabo Catoche Westward To San Felipe. Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect... A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For... * The Coast Of Mexico From Punta Gruesa Northward To Cabo Catoche... Including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For... * The Coast Of Honduras From Limon Eastward To The Honduras/Nicaragua Border...Including The Bay Islands * The Coast Of Mexico From Chetumal Northward To South Of Punta Gruesa * The Coast Of Mexico From Cabo Catoche To San Felipe A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For... * The Coast Of Belize A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case 24 To 36 Hours Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area In Honduras Tonight...And That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area In Mexico Within 24 To 36 Hours. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within The Next 24 To 36 Hours. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service. Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook ------------------------------ At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Paula Was Located Near Latitude 16.8 North...Longitude 84.6 West. Paula Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/Hr. A Turn Toward The North-Northwest And Then Toward The North Is Expected Late Tuesday And Early Wednesday. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Paula Will Move Over The Northwest Caribbean Sea Tonight And Approach The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula Within The Hurricane Warning Area Tuesday Night And Wednesday. Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 70 Mph...110 Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast... And Paula Is Expected To Become A Hurricane On Tuesday. Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km From The Center. Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 994 Mb...29.35 Inches. Hazards Affecting Land ---------------------- Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Occurring Within The Tropical Storm Warning Area In Honduras. Tropical Storm Force Winds Are Expected To Reach The Coast Within The Hurricane Warning Area By Late Tuesday...With Hurricane Conditions Expected By Early Wednesday. Rainfall...Paula Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of 3 To 6 Inches Over...Eastern Honduras...The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico...And Northern Belize. Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 10 Inches Are Possible In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain In Honduras... Where These Rains Could Cause Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides. Storm Surge...A Storm Surge Is Expected To Produce Coastal Flooding Along The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula And On The Bay Islands Of Honduras. Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large Waves. Next Advisory ------------- Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt. Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt. Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi Tropical Storm Paula Discussion Number 2 Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al182010 1100 Pm Edt Mon Oct 11 2010 Several Microwave Images Prior To 0000 Utc Indicated That The Center Was Located Near The Eastern Side Of The Deep Convective Mass. Since That Time The Convection Has Formed Over The Estimated Center And It Appears That Paula Is Strengthening. The Initial Intensity Is Raised To 60 Kt...Based On The Improved Organization. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is En Route And Should Provide A Better Assessment Of The Intensity Of Paula Early Tuesday Morning. Paula Is Forecast To Remain Over Warm Water And In Light To Moderate Southeasterly Shear During The Next Day Or So. This Environment Favors Strengthening And The Nhc Forecast Is Near The Upper-End Of The Guidance. By 48 Hours...Increasing Southwesterly Shear And Drier Air Over The Gulf Of Mexico Will Likely Induce Weakening. The Official Forecast At 3-5 Days Is Lower Than The Previous Advisory And Is Close To The Intensity Consensus. The Somewhat Uncertain Initial Motion Estimate Is 315/10. Paula Is Forecast To Turn North-Northwest Then North Around The Western Periphery Of A Mid- To Upper-Level Ridge Over The Northern Caribbean Sea. The Latest Track Guidance Is Generally Faster During The First 24-36 Hours...Which Results In A Position North Of The Previous Nhc Track. After 36 Hours...The Ridge Is Expected To Weaken As A Deep-Layer Trough Moves Across The Southeastern United States. This Should Cause Paula To Slow Down As The Steering Currents Collapse. Given The Large Spread In The Guidance Beyond 48 Hours...The Confidence In The Latter Portion Of The Track Remains Quite Low. Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 12/0300z 16.8n 84.6w 60 Kt 12hr Vt 12/1200z 17.9n 85.5w 70 Kt 24hr Vt 13/0000z 19.4n 86.3w 80 Kt 36hr Vt 13/1200z 20.4n 86.7w 85 Kt 48hr Vt 14/0000z 21.0n 86.4w 75 Kt 72hr Vt 15/0000z 21.5n 85.5w 60 Kt 96hr Vt 16/0000z 21.5n 84.5w 55 Kt 120hr Vt 17/0000z 21.5n 83.5w 45 Kt Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
Now for an opinion piece accompanied by a few facts.
Why did Paula ‘develop’ so fast – or did it?
Paula was never officially a tropical depression. Suddenly, late Monday afternoon, there’s strong Tropical Storm Paula with 60 mph sustained winds and hurricane warnings issued.
Obviously, Paula at some point WAS a tropical depression before it became a tropical storm. However, that fact seemed to escape the notice of the Hurricane Center (but not by many meteorologists).
Unfortunately, we have seen this situation played out several times over the last decade.
A little background first – the Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center is considered THE source when it comes to defining and naming tropical storms and hurricanes. That makes sense – otherwise, you would have competing agencies / companies doing it and creating quite a bit of confusion.
In addition, the National Hurricane Center is a government agency (NOAA is over the National Weather Service which is over the Hurricane Center) using satellites and cutting edge computers funded by YOUR tax dollars. Thus, all the weather information and related policies should be transparent, logical and consistent not only to meteorologists but also to the American public.
But over the last ten years, the trend has become more subjective pertaining to when a tropical depression forms as well as when it “gets” a name.
As an example – back in 2001 The Hurricane Center’s ‘Tropical Outlook’ early June 5 release stated no tropical development was expected for 48 hours. Later that same day Tropical Allison was bearing down on the upper Texas coast with 60+ mph winds. Had the storm suddenly appeared? No, satellite images showed a suspicious area, but no recon flight was ordered. By midday, it was obvious that a depression had not only formed but probably was already a tropical storm.
For the sake of brevity, we will skip all the intervening similar case studies. Now it has happened again with 2010’s Paula. I mentioned on air this past weekend that you could see a low had developed (which is now Paula). Other more highly trained and educated meteorologists obviously had seen the same thing [by the way, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi is required reading if you are really into weather - check him out at www.accuweather.com].
However, on Sunday no recon flight was ordered into what was becoming Paula. By the time the National Hurricane Center did so later Monday morning, ground observations showed a closed circulation present (i.e., a surface low had formed), and winds were gusting well in excess of 40 mph.
Thus, the depression stage had already passed, and we now have not only a tropical storm but a strong one at that.
What all this means is: Except in emergencies, NEVER trust just one source for understanding a particular subject. In addition, make government agencies (and politicians) accountable because it’s your tax dollars at stake.
There are many weather sites on the internet that deal in hard science stripped of politics. Good sites provoke you to decide on your own what the logical answer is. Sites I recommend are Accuweather.com and ICECAP.US. Find professionals (many exist on the internet) who have an extensive background (education AND experience) in their subject matter. Beware of amateur bloggers.
By the way, a parting suggestion – NEVER give much credence to what a politician, celebrity, or actor says on a subject dealing with a biological or physical science (such as the climate). Many, if not most, such people have little education or practical experience in the ‘pet projects’ they are pushing.
Ask yourself: Am I being shown a way that might improve my life or an I being told how to live my life?
Be skeptical and become informed – not brainwashed.
Thirty-three Chilean miners who have been trapped underground for more than two months will most likely see the light of day this week.
The latest estimates indicate that the men could be above ground as early as Wednesday.
Weather will continue to be favorable for the early rescue. Located in the Atacama Desert, the San Jose mine is about 500 miles north of Santiago, Chile.
Temperatures in nearby Copiapo will be in the low 70s, according to AccuWeather.com meteorologist Mark Paquette. At night, lows will drop into the 40s.
Because of the desert location, rain and wind will not be an issue.
The daytime sunshine may be a plus for rescuers on the surface, but it may not be appreciated by the men who have been underground for nine weeks. Sunglasses have been sent below for the miners to wear as they are brought to the surface.
The hole will have to be widened before the rescue capsule can be used to free the miners. There were concerns that the shaft would need to be reinforced before the men could be removed delaying the process; however, rescuers evaluated the condition of the tunnel and elected to use steel reinforcements in just over 300 feet of the 2,300-foot tunnel.
Once the miners are reached, paramedics will be sent down into the mine to evaluate the physical and mental well-being of the men.
These evaluations will be used to determine in what order the men are then lifted to the surface, though speculation about who will be the last miner removed is ongoing.
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…80 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA…HONDURAS…THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. 1. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
According to Greg Carbin, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, in Norman, Oklahoma, this is the first Tornado Watch EVER issued for the state of Utah!
Meanwhile, Arizona had 22 tornado warnings issued Wednesday! Two tornadoes were confirmed touchdowns near Bellemont, Arizona, (close to Flagstaff).
BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010 500 PM AST WED OCT 06 2010 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 68.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... OTTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OTTO COULD TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL...AND THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 2. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
After spending several days in the far southwestern Gulf as a tropical depression, then as a tropical storm, Opal finally started moving northeast into the central Gulf.
During the morning of Oct 4, Hurricane Opal intensified explosively – falling from 951 mb (Cat 3 strength) to 916 mb (with 150 mph winds, almost Cat 5 strength) – a drop of 35 mb in 9 hours! (1 mb drop per hour is considered rapid strengthening).
In fact, once this news became public, most Florida panhandle north/south highways became gridlocked with residents tring to flee the coast (a lesson most local emergency officials have remembered).
Fortunately, by midday the favorable atmospheric setup that stimulated such rapid intensification quickly turned less favorable, and Opal ‘weakened’ to a ‘marginal’ Cat 3 hurricane with sustained winds around 115 mph at landfall near the Ft. Walton Beach / Destin area Wednesday evening Oct. 4.
Hurricane force sustained winds and gusts near 100 mph blew through much of Okaloosa and Walton counties in Florida. Winds of 50 to 80 mph were reported through much of southern and southeastern Alabama.
The damage along the coast near the center of Opal was major and extensive, but if Opal had maintained its earlier strength, the damage would have been catastrophic and overwhelming.
Opal’s death toll was a total of 9 – mostly away from the coast where wind blown trees fell onto cars and homes. Some of the deaths were in northwestern Georgia. Again, had Opal been as strong as it was earlier, that death toll would have soared.
One of the big effects from Opal was the massive amount of sand driven inland. Many hotels and motels in the Ft. Walton Beach area had 3 to 5 feet of white sand on their first floor deposited by wave action.
Below are clippings from Hurricane Opal.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE 18 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT 150 TO 300 MILES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PWAT VALUES WERE ONLY HALF OF CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM... (THROUGH MONDAY) LOW 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN FROM CANADA BY SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO) WILL BE KICKED OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONGER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY IN CANADA) SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FL SATURDAY AS THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE FL EAST COAST...BUT THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A BIG LIMITING FACTOR. A PERIOD OF STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG WHILE (EXCLUDING RAINY DAYS)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE BY MONDAY. IN FACT...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXPECTATION OF NON-ZERO WIND SPEEDS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. .LONG TERM... (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) AN OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF FAVORS A DEEPER AND FASTER MOVING LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM PUSHING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH MODELS PREDICT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSITION AND SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS LOW WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WHICH WILL PUMP COOL DRY AIR IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. THAT BEING SAID...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY MORNING...NORMALLY COOLER AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA WILL NEAR THE MID 40S. AS FOR HIGHS...EXPECT UPPER 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME LOW 80S RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN SILENT 10 OR BELOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OF FL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TROUGH TO SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. IT LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED!
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EACH AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HIGH DISPERSIONS. A WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS GREATER THAN 10 MPH AND HIGH KBDI VALUES. EXPECT THIS DRY TREND TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 2. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.