AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL













THANKSGIVING...SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY...ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE WAY. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARING OUR WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK...SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BECAUSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO BE A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS CYCLES...WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED...BUT STILL HIGH CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA (50%).

FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
BY DAYS END. OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SHOULD GET RAIN...SO THINK
SHOWING POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
IS APPROPRIATE. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BEING SO WARM ACROSS THE
REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE COOLING ALOFT
(DUE TO THE WEAK DYNAMICS)...SO THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS MAY BE JUST
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY FROM
I-10 SOUTHWARD...SO HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED T IN THE GRIDS FOR
THESE AREAS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SET BY 10 OR 11 AM IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLA PANHANDLE AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VERY COOL AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. EVEN THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE LARGE...I`M NOT SURE I BUY
THE LOWER 30S SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.
FEEL BETTER WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST IN THE WEST.
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