AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL


.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT).
INITIAL CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE IS WITH RESPECT TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS.

RADAR IMAGERY FROM KMOB HAS SHOWN THAT MUCH OF THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN
HAS BEEN TRACKING MORE NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WOULD LEAD ME TO
BELIEVE WE WON`T SEE A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LARGE DISPARITY THOUGH BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET
POPS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO THE NAM-BASED GUIDANCE WANTING TO
SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN OFF TO OUR WEST OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. FEEL IT BEST HERE TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND SHOW POPS PEAKING NEAR
40 PERCENT IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AT THE
LATEST WITH A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
(PERHAPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER) THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE RATHER FAST-PACED...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING IN BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT SHOULDN`T FEEL
TOO COLD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES (INCLUDING THE FSU GAME IN
TALLAHASSEE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SMOKY MOUNTAINS. WHILE IT
WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY...THIS PATTERN TENDS TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
BURSTS OF WIND OVERNIGHT NEAR 5 MPH WHICH TENDS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL GO A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY AT TLH WHERE
THE 32 DEGREES FROM THE MAV/MET SEEMS AWFULLY LOW FOR THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES EASTWARD
TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH OUR LOCAL FLOW SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. THIS
WILL START A QUICK WARMUP ACROSS OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO
NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY).
A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL HEMISPHERIC 5-WAVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. THREE NEARLY STATIONARY LONG WAVES ARE ANCHORED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WESTERN EUROPE AND EASTERN SIBERIA. VIGOROUS FAST
MOVING PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
STORM TRACK THEN CONTINUES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH WILL WEAKEN FRONTAL FEATURES
THAT PROGRESS THROUGH ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ABOUT A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING DEEPLY INTO THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY GENERATES A
CLASSIC COLORADO WINTER STORM AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT SPUN OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
DEVELOPMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. WE KEPT WITH THE WARMER EURO SOLUTION
FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES ON THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW IT TO BE MUCH
WEAKER AND MOVING EAST RAPIDLY THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPIN A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY FRONT INTO
ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
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