You are currently browsing the monthly archive for November 2010.

Thursday will start in the mid to upper 30s with some patchy areas of frost!

Ozark 1.5″

Samson 2.6″

Wicksburg 1.2″

Apalachicola 2.1″

Destin 3.1″

Marianna 3.4″

Tallahassee 2.4″

Fadette 2.0″

Luverne 3.4″

Dothan 1.3″, 1.5″

Geneva 1.3″

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG BEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
731 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM EST / 6PM CST

.BR TAE 1115 E DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM EST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  75 /  47 /  0.00
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  75 /  49 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY                    :  76 /  44 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  79 /  42 /  0.00
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  78 /  42 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  75 /  46 /  0.00
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  78 /  43 /    T
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  77 /  46 /  0.01
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  73 /  46 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  73 /  46 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  77 /  48 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  74 /  45 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  77 /  48 /
:
.END

.BR TAE 1115 C DH18/TAIRVX/DH18/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 6PM CST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  76 /  53 /  0.08
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  75 /  51 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  74 /  56 /  0.00
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  75 /  49 /  0.35
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  76 /  64 /  0.53
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  76 /  50 /    T
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  69 /  59 /  2.19
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  72 /  52 /  0.21
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  72 /  53 /  0.84
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  71 /  51 /  1.06

A Tornado Watch is possible for our area later this afternoon and evening.

Be aware of quickly changing weather conditions close to you for the rest of this afternoon, tonight, and early Tuesday.

Photo Courtesy of Dan Richards. Thanks, it’s brilliant!

   

The Storm Prediction Center has now placed our entire viewing area under a slight risk for severe weather. This means there is at least around a 30% chance for any place in the risk area to receive severe weather. What we’re thinking is that if anything severe does develop, the main threat is straight line winds and a slight risk for a brief tornado. From what I can gather the best estimate for window of risk would be after midnight through about 8 am Tuesday, but primarily between 2-6 am Tuesday. Rainfall totals will likely be widespread totals of 1 inch, but I’m leaning towards more likely 1.5″ with isolated areas over 2.5″. Prepare for a soggy morning, but I think heavy rain will be east of us by 9:30-10:30 am. We aren’t expecting a major cool off after this system, but lows Wednesday & Thursday will be back to near 40 degrees. Connor will be on night duty and I will probably be in an hour or two early to man overnight. I’m anticipating a tornado watch for the beaches into southeast Alabama later this evening.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIMP
INTO THE THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
THAT REGION. AS THE SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO)
BECOMES PHASED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER TX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY...TO A POSITION OVER KY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS ENERGETIC SYSTEM...AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. THUS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NWP CONSENSUS
QPF IS ABOUT AN INCH...BUT NARROW BANDS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT DROUGHT...THIS IS WELCOME NEWS FOR MOST.
NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH IS OUR SEVERE STORM SEASON...AND IT IS
RARE TO NOT HAVE AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS HERE ACTUALLY LOOKS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IT LOOKED LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND
KINEMATICS WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. THE 12 UTC
GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. THE NEW SOLUTIONS KEEP ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE (NOT REALLY SEEN IN THE SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO) TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER TN. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
UNDER A REGION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT (STILL
TO OUR WEST) INTERACTS WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT. NOW THAT THE FRONTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH (A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS)...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST MARGINAL SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY OVER
OUR AREA (500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE)...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.
THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 50 TO
70 KT TUESDAY...WHICH IS PLENTY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF CURVATURE IN THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT AND MORE OF A DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT. THE LINEAR LOOK TO THE MODEL OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PREVENT THIS EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND
WE WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE EXPLICITLY
MENTIONING SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FORECAST.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
724 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 1112 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  77 /  40 /  0.00
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  73 /  52 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY                    :  74 /  41 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  78 /  41 /  0.00
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  71 /  46 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  75 /  42 /  0.00
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  72 /  42 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  72 /  40 /  0.00
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  75 /  43 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  75 /  43 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  73 /  45 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  71 /  42 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  75 /  43 /
:
.END


.BR TAE 1112 C DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM CDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  77 /  49 /  0.00
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  75 /  52 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  73 /  50 /  0.00
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  78 /  42 /  0.00
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  74 /  50 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  78 /  44 /  0.00
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  77 /  50 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  75 /  43 /  0.00
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  74 /  45 /  0.00
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  75 /  40 /  0.00

Amarillo, TX in the boot hill of Texas awoke to a heavy, wet snow, this November 12th. Some of the storm was so strong, there were even reports of Thundersnow, a relatively rare event in comparison to thunder. This was on the back end of a cold front moving through Oklahoma, leaving chilly air, gusty cold wind, and a little something for the children to play in today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU.
A FEW SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH
COVERING 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LONG FETCH
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
BECOMES ENHANCED ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSS OUR PATH. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY. A WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LIFTING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST WEST OF OUR FA.
A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY NIGHT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REMAINING ZONES BY
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY.
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY AND ENDING LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE OFF BUT WITH THE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DECENT RAIN EVENT...AM
RAISING POPS INTO THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

The unselfish sacrifice of America’s soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines will never be fully appreciated by the rest of us who go about our lives under the constant protection of these young heroes.

- Randle W. Galneau
  Goliad, Texas

MOUNT MERAPI, Indonesia — Indonesia’s most volatile volcano spewed clouds of ash high into the sky Wednesday, forcing some international airlines to again cancel flights and President Barack Obama to cut short his visit.

The official death toll, meanwhile, climbed by more than 40 to 191.

Disaster officials said earlier figures had not included people who died of respiratory problems, heart attacks and other illnesses linked to the fiery mountain.

Mount Merapi, located in the heart of Java island, roared back to life two weeks ago, shooting searing clouds of gray soot and debris up to four miles (six kilometers) into the air almost daily, with lava and rock cascading down its slopes.

More than 350,000 people have been evacuated to cramped emergency shelters.

Obama sliced several hours off his whirlwind 24-hour tour to Indonesia over concerns about the volcanic ash, which has been carried by westerly winds toward the capital, Jakarta. He flew to South Korea for the Group of 20 summit.

Safety concerns also prompted several international carriers to again cancel flights into and out of Jakarta, 270 miles (450 kilometers) from Merapi, said Syaiful Bahri, who oversees operations at the airport.

Among them were Cathay Pacific, Value Air and Qantas.

Merapi has erupted many times in the last century, killing more than 1,400. On Friday, it experienced its most explosive blast in more than a century. At least one yet-to-be evacuated village was incinerated, setting on fire houses, trees and fleeing residents.

Muhammad Anshori, a disaster official, said Wednesday the official death toll since the first eruption on Oct. 26 had climbed to 191 – up from 153 earlier in the day.

Another 600 have been hospitalized, some with burns covering 95 percent of their body.

More than 340,000 people living along its slopes and villages near the base have been evacuated, he said. They are now living in more than 80 government camps. Many complain about poor sanitation, saying the toilets and water are filthy.

Indonesia, a vast archipelago of 235 million people, is prone to earthquakes and volcanoes because it sits along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped string of faults that lines the Pacific Ocean.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG BEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
736 PM EST MON NOV 8 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM EST / 6PM CST


.BR TAE 1108 E DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM EST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  72 /  31 /  0.00
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  69 /  36 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY                    :  70 /  31 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  72 /  30 /  0.00
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  70 /  33 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  72 /  32 /  0.00
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  71 /  32 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  70 /  31 /  0.00
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  70 /  34 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  72 /  32 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  72 /  34 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  69 /  33 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  71 /  33 /
:
.END


.BR TAE 1108 C DH18/TAIRVX/DH18/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 6PM CST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  71 /  36 /  0.00
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  65 /  37 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  67 /  37 /  0.00
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  72 /  29 /  0.00
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  69 /  39 /  0.00
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  74 /  36 /  0.00
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  70 /  35 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  71 /  34 /  0.00
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  70 /  33 /  0.00
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  71 /  30 /  0.00

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
447 PM EST MON NOV 8 2010

...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO
8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

.CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST CAN BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ALZ065-066-068-FLZ017>019-027>029-034-091300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FR.Y.0001.101109T0600Z-101109T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-INLAND WAKULLA-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON...SLOCOMB...MALVERN...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY
447 PM EST MON NOV 8 2010 /347 PM CST MON NOV 8 2010/

...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO
8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO
8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ TUESDAY.

CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A frosty morning in the fields of Ozark

Frosty Sunrise over the fields of Slocomb

  New England awoke to it’s first Nor’easter of the season on Monday morning….Most states received wind and heavy  rain, with gusts up to 40 mph. Bradley International Airport in Connecticut reported a heavy, wet snow at 4:30 am EST which changed over to sleet and then eventually rain.

  This photo is from my house, showing a dusting of snow on the roof & car, and leaves blown off the trees. Morning lows were between 32-38.

Did your vehicle look like this at all this weekend?

WWUS72 KTAE 071003
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
503 AM EST SUN NOV 7 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 081300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.W.0008.101108T0600Z-101108T1300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-101107T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…GEORGETOWN… FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
503 AM EST SUN NOV 7 2010 /403 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010/

Freeze Warning Remains in Effect Until 8 AM EST /7 AM Cst/
This Morning,
, Freeze Warning in Effect From 1 AM EST /midnight Cst/ to 8 Am EST /7 AM Cst/ Monday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a freeze warning, which is in effect from 1 AM EST /midnight cst/ to 8 am EST /7 AM cst/ monday. a freeze warning remains in effect until 8 AM EST /7 AM cst/ this morning.

low temperatures are expected to reach 32 degrees around dawn on monday. this will be a light freeze, lasting only a few hours and affecting the normally coldest areas away from the beaches and cities. low temperatures at the beaches and in the downtown areas of larger cities like tallahassee will be in the lower 40S. patchy frost is possible as well, even in areas that remain a few degrees above freezing. the main impact of this event will be to sensitive vegetation.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a freeze warning means that freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. these conditions may damage crops and other
sensitive vegetation if protective action is not taken.

&&

WWUS72 KTAE 060930
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 AM EDT SAT NOV 6 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 071300-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FZ.A.0002.101107T0900Z-101107T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.W.0007.101107T0600Z-101107T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…GEORGETOWN… FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
530 AM EDT SAT NOV 6 2010 /430 AM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010/

Freeze Warning in Effect From 1 AM EST /12 AM Cst/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM Cst/ Sunday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a freeze warning, which is in effect from 1 AM EST /12 AM cst/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM cst/ sunday.

low temperatures are expected to reach 32 degrees for the first time this season. this will be a light freeze, lasting only an hour or two and affecting the normally coldest areas away from the beaches and cities. lows at the beaches and in the downtown areas of larger cities like tallahassee will be in the upper 30S. frost is not likely because of the very dry air and occasional light
breezes during the night.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a freeze warning means that freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. these conditions may damage crops and other
sensitive vegetation if protective action is not taken.

&&


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT FRI NOV 5 2010

...COLD WEEKEND ON TAP...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT COASTAL FLORIDA
5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND/OR FROST. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY AFTER TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT FREEZE...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE
PROTECTED.

TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH WELL TO OUR WEST...THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
NON-ZERO WIND SPEEDS. AS NOTED ABOVE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT
SHOULD DROP FURTHER SWD AS SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. ALL
THIS WILL IMPEDE OVERNIGHT MINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND (ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE). LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT HAS BEEN. ISOLATED FROST
IS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HAS SOME INLAND SITES AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. LOCAL
CONFIDENCE FREEZE TOOL SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BELOW 32 DEGREE TEMPS WITH WRN AND ERN MOST INLAND COUNTIES BEST
BET. URBAN AREA UNLIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS.
THROW IN THAT THIS IS FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZING PATTERN OF SEASON..ITS
A WEEKEND AND THE STATE FAIR IS ONGOING...WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A
FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
WITH HIGH STILL CLOSE BY...NO CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS...LOWS WILL
HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MONDAY...WITH HIGH SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN ATLC...LOCAL WINDS VEER TO
ELY AND MAX TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

WWUS72 KTAE 051839
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
239 PM EDT FRI NOV 5 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 061000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0002.101107T0900Z-101107T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY…GEORGETOWN… FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
239 PM EDT FRI NOV 5 2010 /139 PM CDT FRI NOV 5 2010/

Freeze Watch in Effect From Late Saturday Night Through Sunday Morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a freeze watch, which is in effect from late saturday night through
sunday morning.

overnight lows will possibly drop to freezing in the coldest inland locations between 5 AM and 9 AM EDT sunday.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. these conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

...UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER ON THE WAY...

.DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTH JERSEY SHORE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THIS SURFACE LOW DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1028 MB) WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WAS LEADING TO STILL BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS FROM 00 UTC SHOWS A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE 590 DM RIDGE OUT
WEST AND A VERY DEEP LATITUDINAL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE GULF. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO FUNNEL VERY COLD AIR OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

THE 00 UTC KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED SOLID NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO ABOUT 800 MB WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FURTHER ALOFT.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION ONLY LIKELY TO INCREASE FURTHER
OVERNIGHT...THE 850 TEMPS NOW AT +6C ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 0C ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12 UTC FRIDAY.

OVERALL...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS TEMPERATURES.
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RECOVER MUCH EACH AFTERNOON...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
CHILLY...THOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL MAKE IT
FEEL COOLER. IT WON`T BE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING THAT
TEMPERATURES TAKE A NOSE DIVE INTO THE MID 30S. FOR NOW...THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR WEST TO SUPPORT A FREEZE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN FACT ON THE LARGE SCALE ACROSS THE CWA...LOCALLY RUN
PROBABILISTIC FREEZE GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATES ABOUT A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND ABOUT 50 TO
60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE NO FREEZE WATCHES
ARE POSTED JUST YET...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE MINS NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 1104 E DH20/TAIRVX/DH20/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  65 /  60 /  0.17
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  67 /  60 /  1.32
40J  : PERRY                    :  72 /  59 /  0.49
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  79 /  59 /  0.22
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  77 /  58 /  0.73
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  66 /  57 /  0.24
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  65 /  59 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  67 /  59 /  0.02
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  64 /  59 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  64 /  54 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  66 /  59 /
TMA  : TIFTON                   :  63 /  56 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  66 /  60 /
:
.END


.BR TAE 1104 C DH19/TAIRVX/DH19/TAIRVP/PPDRVZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM CDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  67 /  58 /  0.08
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  64 /  59 /  0.67
VPS  : EGLIN AFB                :  63 /  58 /  0.01
CEW  : CRESTVIEW                :  67 /  57 /  0.01
PNS  : PENSACOLA                :  69 /  57 /  0.23
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  69 /  60 /  0.14
MOB  : MOBILE                   :  67 /  55 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  66 /  55 /  0.03
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  62 /  57 /  0.01
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  67 /  55 /  0.03

Enter your email address
below to follow this
blog and receive email updates.

Smart Phone Weather

SE Drought Monitor

U.S. Weather Hazards

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 356 other followers