AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL


SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE CURRENT FCST
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD HAS REMAINED WELL ON TRACK OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...AND THERE ARE NO REAL SIGNS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WE EXPECT THIS 1ST BATCH OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIGS TO
BURN OFF TODAY...BUT AS THIS PROTECTING SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MODERATING
AIR MASS...ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE N. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
EASILY BE THE WARMEST OF THIS CURRENT WEEK...AS WE WILL BEGIN THE
DAY FROM A MUCH WARMER LAUNCHING PAD. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS ON
TOMORROW`S HIGHS WILL BE THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN WITH VERY MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSOLATION...MOST AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CRACK THE 70 DEGREE
BARRIER. ALTHOUGH A HIGH TEMP OF 70 DEGREES IN TALLAHASSEE IS STILL
ONLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...THIS MONTH OF DECEMBER HAS BEEN
SO COLD THAT WE HAVE ONLY REACHED 70 TWICE THUS FAR...WITH A PAIR OF
71S ON THE 4TH AND THE 17TH...SO WEDNESDAY COULD VERY EASILY END UP
BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE MONTH BEFORE WE WRAP UP THE 2010
CALENDAR YEAR. THEN...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
CWA WITH LITTLE FANFARE (AND NO PRECIP) ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH JUST A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL HOLD OFF FOR
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...AND WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAME ASHORE INTO
SRN CA ON WED WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FROM THIS
POINT ONWARD...WE BEGIN TO SEE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EURO. THE GFS OPENS UP THE WAVE AS IT SWEEPS EWD MUCH FASTER THAN
THE EURO. THE EURO TAKES A TIGHTER VORT CENTER FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE 12Z FRI ESE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. IT THEN PULLS THE
FEATURE EWD ALONG THE ENTIRE NRN GULF COAST. THIS RESULTS IN A
MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH PASSES JUST
S OF NEW ORLEANS SAT MORNING BEFORE SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE NE
GULF NEAR OUR COASTLINE. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE IS NOW SOME HINT OF A GULF COAST WAVE ON THE FRONT IN
THE GFS...IT DOES NOT DEVELOP AND INSTEAD WE SEE A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SINCE THIS LATTER
SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO CONTINUITY AND WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
IN OUR FORECAST...WE WILL STICK WITH IT FOR NOW.

THIS MEANS WE STILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS CREEPING
INTO THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY FRI WITH 40 POPS OVERNIGHT W
AND CHRISTMAS MORNING E. THIS IS A SLIGHT SLOW DOWN OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS...AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL
SURGE INTO THE GULF. LOOK FOR A WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION LIGHT
FREEZE SAT NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN AND MON WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S N AND LOWER 50S S WITH PLENTY OF COOL BREEZES. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS TIME. A HARD FREEZE LOOKS
LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE MORNINGS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND TEMPS
COULD CERTAINLY GET COLDER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
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