AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
TONIGHT...LOCAL AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  AIDED BY LACK OF CLOUD COVER...A
LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND URBAN AREAS. LOCAL CONFIDENCE PROB FREEZE TOOL SHOWS CHANCE OF
FREEZE FROM ZERO PANHANDLE COAST TO AROUND 40% TALLAHASSEE TO 75%
NRN MOST GA AND ALA COUNTIES EXPECT INLAND LOWS AROUND 30
DEGREES...MID 30S AT COAST. PATCHY FROST
MAINLY ERN THIRD OF CWA.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL DOMINANT. SO
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SE BIG BEND AND COAST. LOWS
IN MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S COAST.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS. 60-40 PCT NW-SE RAIN GRADIENT.
WINDS VEER AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM. SO HIGHS MID 50S SE ALA/SW
GA TO MID 60S SE BIG BEND/COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY POPS. WITH MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE SE
ALA/SRN GA. (SEE ABOVE). LOWS FROM LOW 30S SE ALA/SRN GA TO AROUND
40 SE BIG BEND/COAST.

SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WITH 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
(ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS IN THE BALLPARK) TO DROP TO BETWEEN -6 AND
-9C. HIGHS FROM MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S SE BIG BEND/
COAST.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING HARD FREEZE. ALSO...WITH THE GRADIENT STILL
TIGHT...WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
TAKING THE COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS WITH IT...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS BEFORE AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODERATE.

 

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