Merry Christmas!

That area of low pressure off the Texas coast got started moving our way too slowly for it to bring us any decent amount of snow on Christmas Day Night.

Maybe a few flurries between 10pm and 3am Sunday morning.

Here’s what the National Weather Service is thinking for our area for the next few days…

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN
STORE FOR US THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S REGIONWIDE. A SHREDDED CIRRUS DECK SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 20S AS
WAS NOT THE CASE FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.

ON SATURDAY SHORTWAVE TROFS DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS THE SMALLER OF THESE SHORTWAVES
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GOMEX AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. THESE
FEATURES TRAVEL EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARRIVE IN OUR LOCAL AREA
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE THAT ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW COUPLED WITH DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OUR LOCAL AREA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF RAIN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF SOME
SORT OF FROZEN PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...RECENT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT THIS. HAVE
LEFT A BRIEF 3-4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF OCCURRING OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHERN GA ZONES. ANY FLURRIES
THAT DO OCCUR OVERNIGHT (IF ANY) ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
WHATSOEVER. BY SUNRISE THE BAND OF RAIN WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION
TO THE EAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

THE BIG STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE FRIGID WEATHER SET TO FILTER
IN BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 40S AND WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
FEEL AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S ALL
DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOW 20S
REGIONWIDE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN ARCTIC EXPRESS IN FULL
SWING INTO OUR AREA. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS PLUNGING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
PRODUCING A TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE COLD DOME OF AIR CENTERED OVER
NORTH FL, EASTERN GA, AND THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY P.M...MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CONUS HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  HOWEVER...
ZONAL FLOW IS SHORT LIVED...WITH THE NEXT BIG PULSE COMING SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH IN THE FAR WEST. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
PRODUCING SOME WEAK BLOCKING ON THURSDAY. WHAT DOES ALL THIS DO TO
OUR WEATHER...A WARNING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE IN STORE
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE TEENS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS EVEN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS. LATEST
ECMWF SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED RIGHT OVER NORTH FL ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE A POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE FOR
ALL INLAND LOCATIONS FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 GETTING TO NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS BY FRIDAY.
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