AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST IS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM A RAPID FALL THIS EVENING...AND WE
ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

REST OF TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR THE MS DELTA BY DAWN. EXPECT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM-FRONTAL
FEATURE DEVELOPS EASTWARD ALONG OUR COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPGLIDE
ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN BREAKING OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AFTER 07-09Z. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS OFTEN ON THE SLOW
SIDE TO DEVELOP UPGLIDE INITIATED PRECIP AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE AT LEAST SHOWERS ARRIVING AT PLACES LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND
ALBANY BY SUNRISE AS WELL.

TUESDAY...A WET DAY ON TAP. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MORNING...AND THE PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN BE WITH US FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. LATER IN THE MORNING...AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THE OVERSPREADING OF LARGE SCALE LIFT/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER. SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEREFORE OUT OF THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FOLLOWING
PARAGRAPH IS FROM THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION AND SUMMARIZES THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE FL BIG BEND WHERE THE WARM SECTOR MAY
BRIEFLY ARRIVE.

(FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY LOOK SLIM AT THIS TIME THIS
FAR NORTH. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA IN A SLIGHT
RISK...WHICH BARELY TOUCHES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE KINEMATICS WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THE STABLE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MOST STORMS IN OUR REGION FROM BECOMING
SURFACE BASED. IN FACT...EVERY MODEL WE HAVE SEEN FORECASTS A
LARGE AREA OF ZERO SBCAPE OVER APALACHEE BAY...AS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 50S (ABOUT 6 F BELOW CLIMO). SO
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON TUESDAY MAY LOOK
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR...IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THAT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
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