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The orange-colored area below has the most potential to become our next
named storm… EMILY.
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY… ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE… 50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 858 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0727 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 85 / 75 / 0.09 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 84 / 75 / 0.70 40J : PERRY : 86 / 74 / 0.30 CTY : CROSS CITY : 82 / 75 / 1.01 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 91 / 75 / 1.20 ABY : ALBANY : 89 / 76 / 1.37 VAD : MOODY AFB : 88 / 74 / 0.42 VLD : VALDOSTA : 91 / 77 / 0.07 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 88 / 72 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 88 / 73 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 81 / 73 / TMA : TIFTON : 86 / 73 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 84 / 73 / : .END .BR TAE 0727 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 87 / 76 / 0.21 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 84 / 76 / 1.37 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 83 / 76 / 0.20 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 86 / 74 / 0.12 PNS : PENSACOLA : 83 / 76 / 0.24 MAI : MARIANNA : 90 / 77 / 0.01 MOB : MOBILE : 89 / 74 / 0.08 DHN : DOTHAN : 89 / 74 / 0.09 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 87 / 74 / 0.19 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 88 / 75 / 0.00
TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER... AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/ GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
Photos Courtesy of Chris Ison of Dothan
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
The answer, Greatly. Two weeks ago, Southeast Alabama (the entire WTVY area) was under D5 drought conditions: Exceptional Drought. While we are not cleared of the drought completely…All of the WTVY viewing area and almost all of the Southeast is no longer in the most serious drought conditions. However, much of the Panhandle and SW Georgia are still under extreme Drought, or D4 conditions while Southeast Alabama is under D3: severe.
It is a little late to save much of the Summer crops quality, but the rain we are getting now is coming in increments, which is perfect for Fall crop development.
Picture 1.) Lightning Strike that shattered pipe by Gaylon Thomas from Goodman, AL
2.) Rainbow over Geneva from Tim Brooks
3. & 4. Shots from the sky by pilot Morgan McCloud
After four hours the cookies were basically completely baked.
So….you thought it was a bad summer across the Southeast? While it is true that we have had our share of heat advisories and humidity this summer, we are far from alone. The highest heat inAlabamaoccurred in late June/early July, but now it plagues the middle of the nation.
How do people in Chicago and northern Wisconsin handle this when a mere 5 months ago were facing sub-zero wind chills?
The culprit for this is a summertime phenomenon is an expansive area of high pressure, called a sub-tropical high. A subtropical high is a semi-permanent weather fixture. This means it can stay in one place for several weeks at a time. When the polar jet stream retreats to the north, theGulf of Mexicocan extend its influence further north than simply the gulf coast states.
The area of high pressure acts to suppress rising motion, which is needed to develop storms. This as a result keeps all the hot and humid air, exactly that…hot and humid.
This is how states as far north as the Canadian boarder end up with Heat Index values well into the triple digits.
So just how bad is it this week across the country? Here are some stats: 17 States, primarily in theMidwestare under Excessive Heat Warnings. 18 States have portions under Heat Advisories. Over 40 states will reach the 90’s today and close to twenty could reach triple digit actual temperatures. This is the tenth day of the current heat wave.
For a “refreshing” change, the only part of Alabama under any form of heat warning is the extreme north. Our highs will not hit triple digits, and heat index values should also remain below 100 today.
So while you feel like you may be melting, just think about those who are used to shoveling for 5 months out of the year, and how they may be handling the heat….
Arizona was hit by its second giant dust storm in two weeks yesterday, turning the sky brown, delaying flights and causing mayhem for motorists.
The dust storm, known as a haboob, formed in Pinal County and headed north-east, engulfing Phoenix at about 5:30 pm.
The monster dust wall was about 3,000 feet high and created winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts of up to 40 mph.
The death of a comet that plunged into the sun was captured on camera this month for the first time in history, scientists say.
The comet met its fiery demise on July 6 when it zoomed in from behind the sun and melted into oblivion as it crashed into the star.
It was NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a satellite orbiting Earth that studies the sun, which witnessed the comet’s death-blow.
One of the SDO spacecraft’s high-definition imagers “actually spotted a sun-grazing comet as it disintegrated over about a 15 minute period (July 6, 2011), something never observed before,” SDO officials said.
Comets have been spotted near the sun before, but last week’s object was the first to be observed in real-time as it disappeared.
“Given the intense heat and radiation, the comet simply evaporated away completely,” SDO officials said.
The comet was a type known to astronomers as a sun-grazing comet because its path brought it extremely close to the sun.
We will be in the Orange all this week! Stay Hydrated, take breaks, and don’t over exert yourself!
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 823 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0705 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 96 / 74 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 92 / 73 / 0.00 40J : PERRY : 95 / 70 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 95 / 69 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 95 / 72 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 98 / 73 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 95 / 72 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 100 / 73 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 99 / 73 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 91 / 72 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 93 / 73 / TMA : TIFTON : 93 / 73 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 95 / 72 / : .END .BR TAE 0705 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 92 / 72 / 0.01 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 90 / 72 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 91 / 74 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 95 / 69 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 95 / 75 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 99 / 75 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 95 / 70 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 95 / 73 / 0.39 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 94 / 71 / 0.04 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 96 / 70 / 0.03