TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO.  IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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