You are currently browsing the monthly archive for August 2011.

Extended models show Katia intensifying to a hurricane by Thursday, but turning it out to sea.

Models continue to suggest developments in the Gulf by Friday….

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.D. TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.2N 28.4W AS OF 29/2100 UTC...OR 
ABOUT 360 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W 
AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE 
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF 
THE CENTER FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS 
THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W 
TO 18N18W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.D. 
TWELVE HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY ALLOWING 
A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 10N45W TO 10N58W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.  THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERS THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W TO THE COAST OF COLUMBIA AT 09N76W.  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS 
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS 
EVENING...WHILE THE EASTERN GULF SHOWS SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ON 
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE FRONT.  OVER THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO 
AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD JUST SLIGHTLY INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO IS A SURFACE TROUGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND 
THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE 
GULF...LIKELY ENHANCING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.  THE 
COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED 
NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA AND PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER 
YUCATAN...SHOULD LEAD TOWARD EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP 
NE-SW TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOME UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN CONVERGING WITH WEAKER TRADES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
ARE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  WHILE THERE DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE A COHERENT SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
CONVECTION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA MAY ALSO BE 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO...THE CONVERGENCE LINE...AND THUS THE CONVECTION...MAY SHIFT 
WESTWARD AND BECOME ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN.  THUS GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER 
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS T.D. TWELVE IN THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC.  SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION OF THIS SYSTEM.  ELSEWHERE TWO 
PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT...ONE EXTENDING FROM 
17N40W TO 26N37W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 27N51W TO 28N46W TO 
30N40W.  THE FIRST...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10...SHOWED A BRIEF 
FLAREUP OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...BUT NOW ONLY HAS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM WEST 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 18N.  THERE MAY BE AN EXTENSION OF 
THIS TROUGH WESTWARD...THOUGH THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE 
18 UTC MAP.  THE SECOND TROUGH HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION CURRENTLY.  ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 60W...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE 
FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  EXCEPT 
FOR SOME 20 KT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 
THE CIRCULATION AROUND T.D. TWELVE...THE TRADEWINDS ARE QUITE 
WEAK ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY.  THIS SHOULD 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF 
THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RATHER STRONG RIDGE ALONG 18N PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ATLANTIC ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE.

Right now, all 3 of the major forecast models are showing a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm just off the Texas coast this coming Labor Day Weekend!

Now, forecasting anything that far out is Voodoo Land, BUT, since 3 of the forecast models are “homed-in” on that area, it’ll be interesting to see what happens…

Mark your calendars!

But do it in pencil…

 

It’s almost hard to believe it has been six long years since the landfall in New Orleans of the one of the most devistating hurricanes to ever affect the United States, Hurricane Katrina bore down. One of the most costly and fatal storms is still remembered vividly in the minds of those affected.

Every six years the World Meteorological Organization repeats the list of storm names, and now we are upon the list that held Katrina. Katrina’s name was retired, and replaced with the name Katia. It sounds a little close to Katrina for my liking. Ironically, on this day six years after Katrina, Katia may likely be born from Tropical Depression #12.

Below is a message sent out by the New Orleans National Weather Service preceeding Katrina. It is eery, and accurate and very interesting.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

 

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED

STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

 

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

 

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

 

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

 

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

 

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING

INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

 

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

 

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR

HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE

CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

 

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE

OUTSIDE

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH
LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY
YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA
FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH
DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000
FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.

RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION...
COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF
IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS
OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. 

6'+ swell from Hurricane Irene along FL coast

Hurricane Irene Waves, Ormond Beach, FL Aug 26, 2011

 

 

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB
PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT
QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE
INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER
WINDS.

IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH
BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A
STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL
HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  HOWEVER...THE
UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.   

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 75.0W AT 25/0000 
UTC OR ABOUT 160 NM...295 KM SE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...OR 
ABOUT 705 NM...1300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MOVING 
NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE CENTER.  TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VERY 
MOIST CONDITIONS AT LEAST 250 NM FROM THE CENTER...WITH DRIER 
AIR IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PERIPHERY.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. IRENE 
IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS NEAR 13N27W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS 
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR 
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE 
1007 MB LOW AT 13N27W TO NEAR 10N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
THERE TO 13N48W TO 13N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH ALMOST NO SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF ARE VERY WEAK THIS EVENING WITH MAX OF 10 KT E IN THE NEAR 
THE U.S. GULF COAST.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...BUT NO CONCENTRATED OR ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION TO BE FOUND.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS PRESENT 
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 
THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO.  DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND WILL BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY 
DIRECTION.  WITH HURRICANE IRENE REMAINING EAST OF THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HURRICANE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 
KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE ARE PROVIDING SOME 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER 
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  LIKEWISE THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF 
THE HURRICANE HAS CAUSED THE NORMAL TRADEWIND REGIME TO BE 
DISRUPTED.  IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING AND IN THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEAK SW WINDS ARE 
OBSERVED.  A 1500Z ASCAT PASS AND SOME SHIPS INDICATE THAT SW 
WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  AS THE 
HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE NW AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE 
NEXT DAY...CONVECTION AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS 
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE NE OUTFLOW FROM IRENE PREVAILS AND IS 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIRRUS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CIRCULATION AROUND MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE IS BECOMING QUITE 
LARGE WITH 20 KT WINDS EXTENDING NEARLY 600 NM ACROSS.  AS THE 
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...HEAVY 
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL 
SEE DIMINISHING RAINFALL.  A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
23N44W.  THIS LOW REACQUIRED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EARLIER TODAY...BUT IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AGAIN THIS EVENING.  
THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
MOST OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HAS WEAK TO MODERATE 
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1027 MB HIGH AT 
35N38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 
WEST AFRICA ALONG 20N TO 45W.  A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 24N53W.  SW WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS 
PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AFOREMENTIONED 
LOW.

 

We’re in the thick of it now…Hurricane Season’s peak months. It’s not uncommon to see several areas of activity stemming from what us Meteorologists like to call the ‘African Wave Train’…storm complexes stemming off the Western Coast of Africa near the intertropical convergence zone.

Tropical Strom Irene became a Category 1 Hurricane early Monday morning. Irene will be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2008. Hurricane Ike was the last hurricane to hit the United States around Galveston, Texas as a Cat 2 Hurricane, but it has been since 2005 that a Major (considered Category 3 hurricane) has hit the United States with Hurricane Wilma.

This is the longest the United States has ever gone without a major hurricane strike since the 1800’s. Current paths of Irene have shifted the storm Northward, which will steer the storm away from the mountainous range of Haiti. This spells trouble for the Carolinas. The last hurricane to hit South Carolina was Gaston back in 2004, but Irene has the potential to be more severe. Since it is a Cat 1 now, and will have very little to break it apart it is expected to intensify as it moves over extremely warm water.

It should be interesting to watch how the system unfolds over the next two days, which will ultimately decide how far north it goes, but at this point Florida will likely experience high surf, and potential Tropical Storm Winds, as well as some rain…but the brunt of it should arrive late Friday or early Saturday somewhere along the Carolinas

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL 
STORM HARVERY AS OF 19/1800. HARVEY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 84.2W 
OR ABOUT 135 NM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS. HARVEY IS MOVING W 
NEAR 9 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FOR MORE 
DETAILS REFER TO PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND 
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS MAINLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
81W-88W IMPACTING EXTREME NRN HONDURAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS NRN HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS COULD CAUSE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA 
ALONG 17N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR 13N AROUND A 1006 MB 
SURFACE LOW. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH 
MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 17W-23W....AND FROM 9N-12N 
BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-24W. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS 
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 
17N48W TO 9N47W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS 
AROUND A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20 
KT. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS MAINLY W OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-53W...AND SE OF 
THE AXIS  FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 42W-47W. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ACTIVE TRPCL WAVE OVER THE FAR ERN TRPCL ATLC HAS SPLIT 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE SECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER 
AFRICA...WHILE THE OTHER CONTINUES ON THE W SIDE OF THE TRPCL 
WAVE ALONG 13N22W 11N35W TO THE TRPCL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL 
ATLC NEAR 13N48W. CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED 
OVER WRN TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY DRY 
AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. THIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED 
OVER ERN MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 
83W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO FORM 
OVER THE NE GULF WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND 
IT. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. HARVERY IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING NRN HONDURAS AND HEADING WWD 
TOWARDS THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N 
BETWEEN 81W-83W...AND S OF 12N TO PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E 
PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. ALOFT...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
20N85W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 
THE ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS IS 
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH 
AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. 
EXPECT T.S. HARVEY TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE ERN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE WRN 
ATLC W OF 73W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND REACHING S FLORIDA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N74W 
TO 28N80W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS TO 31N65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 31N57W TO 
THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N54W TO 28N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N29W 
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES 
ARE CENTERED NEAR 25N48W...AND 34N33W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE 
RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 15W N OF 25N. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DUST E OF 
50W TO THE N OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 
12N80W. A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD 
BE FORMING ABOUT 90 NM ENE OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY 
ISLANDS...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 9-13 KT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THE 18/1800 UTC MAP ALONG THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 16W FROM 13N-21N. A BROAD MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-16N E OF 22W TO 
INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION WITH A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. 
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG A 
LINE FROM 12N19W 14N19W TO INLAND OVER SENEGAL NEAR DAKAR. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER 
THE AREA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-25W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF 
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTEND FROM 19N43W 
ALONG 15N43W TO JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N41W MOVING 
W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
COVERING A BROAD AREA AND BECOMING TILTED NW/SE. WAVE REMAINS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 40W-46W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE DEPICTION ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SPLIT MONSOON TROUGH 
ALONG 16W AS A RESULT OF A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF 
THE COAST OF AFRICA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ONE PORTION OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA. THE OTHER PORTION OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 
13N17W ALONG 15N31W RUNNING JUST S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
12N41W TO 9N48W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 9N48W ALONG 10N55W 
TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
43W-48W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE 
AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 24N ANCHORED OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE N 
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-26N 
BETWEEN 92W-96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA THEN 
INTO THE GULF NEAR TALLAHASSEE ALONG 27N85W 24N88W TO 24N92W. 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE LOUISIANA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS 
MOVING TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES AND OVER THE FLORIDA 
KEYS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SPLITS THE SURFACE RIDGE 
FROM THE W ATLC WITH A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE W GULF NEAR 27N95W. 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF THROUGH MON. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN 
AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL 
FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W 
CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS FEATURE IS 
DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 
75W-86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W 
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 
15N BETWEEN 70W-75W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY 
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE 
LOW WILL THEN MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI AFTERNOON 
TO INLAND OVER BELIZE SAT NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC WILL ENTER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON 
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO 
THE W ATLC THEN THROUGH 32N78W TO NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 
NM OF LINE FROM OVER W CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
TO NEAR 32N74W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 
32N55W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N57W ACROSS HISPANIOLA/ 
PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 
27N60W TO 32N55W. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE 
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 
11N-15N BETWEEN 57W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 
33N59W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TWO 
AREAS OF SAHARAN DRY AIR ARE ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. THE LARGEST 
S ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-30N E OF 57W. THE SECOND IS 
SMALLER N OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THE W 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SAT THROUGH MON. 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 19N82W 15N80W 11N80W MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THERE IS A 
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 
16N. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES 
HAVE BEEN DROPPING INDICATING THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE 
FORMING. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-81W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 82W-84W. INTERESTS IN THE 
NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR 
THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC 
ALONG 17N39W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N39W MOVING W 10-15 
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINGUISHABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 39W-43W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W 
ALONG 13N28W TO S OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N39W TO 9N47W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N47W TO 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SIMILAR 
ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 
32W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED 
OVER NW TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR 
ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. THIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WRN GULF 
CENTERED AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N95W. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 29N84W 
27N88W TO 25N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NE 
GULF NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR 
ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM 
23N-28N BETWEEN 91W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SE 
GULF S OF 27N E OF 97W. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE FLOW TO REMAIN 
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DISSIPATING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SEE 
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...A FEW CLUSTERS OF 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WRN CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 
81W-84W...AND ACROSS JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A 
CLUSTER IS ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA AND W OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF WRN CUBA. THE ERN 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE DRY AIR 
ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND 
FLOW. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE WRN 
ATLC W OF 75W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN 75W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SLIGHTLY INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N78W TO 29N80W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
SPINNING NEAR 25N57W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N 
BETWEEN 54W-61W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS 
ALSO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 56W-61W 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
COVERED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS 
NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC WITH 
CENTERS NEAR 23N41W AND 36N34W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 
JUST SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. TWO AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST ARE 
ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. THE FIRST IS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN 
THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC AND E OF 55W. THE SECOND IS N OF THE ERN 
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 61W-70W. 

Here is the current Drought Monitor as of August 18th. South Alabama is in much better shape since a month ago, however we are due for some rain. September and October are not far off, and typically lead the Southeast into a drier part of the year. While some don’t want to hear it, a weak tropical system is exactly what we could use to completely reverse our current drought levels.

That being said, the Tropics are starting to get their act together…and accordingly right with entering the busiest time of hurricane season (Mid-August through late September). Currently there are four tropical waves between the Caribbean and the Atlantic. One of them shows strong potential for development in the next day or two, and will likely be our 8th named storm, Tropical Storm Harvey. Interestingly, the previous storm  Tropical Storm Gert set the record in giving the season the most storms without having become hurricanes.

What will be Harvey should have no impact on the United States as it moves towards Guatemala and Central America. Behind that is a smaller wave that shows slower signs of development, but shows long term signs of development and “potential” impact on the United States next week.

This tropical wave is approximately 875 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands and could have potential to become a tropical system late next week.

This is the GFS 12Z model of what that wave COULD become next Friday in the Gulf. It must be noted though that a LOT can change in intensity and direction in a week…but it is certainly worth paying attention to!

In the meantime…Local weather remains quiet through the weekend as our dewpoints unfortunately creep back to uncomfortable territory in the low 70’s, up from the low 60’s earlier this week. This spells high heat index. Friday and Saturday will be 93-95 with heat index of 99-102. Rain chances remain fairly low, isolated mainly to the coastal seabreeze South of I-10, but a stray shower or two may make it over the state line. Lots of sunshine otherwise!

A blog written by Meteorologist Nate Johnson of http://www.digitalmeteorologist.wordpress.com

 

When Apple first released the iPhone, one ad that got a lot of attention — so much of the kind of attention that it’s nowhere to be found on YouTube — was one featuring someone purporting to be an airline pilot.  The pilot says air traffic control told them they can’t take off due to weather at their destination, but thanks to his iPhone, he knew better.  He pulls up the radar for their destination, confirms there’s no bad weather there, and tells ATC, who promptly and without question gives them the go-ahead for takeoff.

iPhone, courtesy of Flickr user TwonPhoto courtesy of Flickr user Twon

Anyone familiar with the inner workings of commercial aviation knows the flaws with that ad, but its nonsense raises an interesting point.  With the explosion in the smartphone industry, a lot of folks are walking around with very powerful and capable computers in their pockets.  The range of applications available is fantastic for experts and enthusiasts alike, as they take a wide range of information and data products and put it all in the hands of, well, experts and enthusiasts alike.

Herein lies a potential problem.  Without getting into the details of the State Fair incident — most of which will only be uncovered by a proper and independent investigation, regardless of the governor’s “fluke” conclusion — this begs the question: Does putting these tools and data in someone’s hands automatically make them credible and qualified to use those tools and interpret those data?  Clearly, the answer to that is “no” — however, there’s more than enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that’s exactly what happens anyway.

We know, for example, that people under a threat will seek to confirm or personalize that threat before deciding whether to take protective action.  One way some have done this is, after watching a television meteorologist analyze radar data during a severe weather cut-in, attempting to recreate what they’ve seen on TV.   If they’re successful in this re-creation, that is often “good enough” for confirmation and will open the door toward taking action.

Velocity image showing a potential tornado, courtesy of Flickr user jastrzabVelocity image showing a potential tornado, courtesy of Flickr user jastrzab

The problem is that radar interpretation is not for the timid.  It’s an area where what you don’t know that you don’t know — akin to Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” — can bite you.  If you have not been trained and don’t know about aliased (or improperly de-aliased) Doppler velocities, for example, you might falsely identify a tornado, or worse, miss or misidentify an actual one.  And radar interpretation doesn’t — and should never — take place in a vacuum.  If you were to correctly identify a fine line from surrounding echoes or clutter, how do you know whether it is a harmless wind shift or the harbinger of strong winds?  Even the best smartphone radar apps don’t provide the necessary environmental context to make that kind of assessment with any kind of certainty.  However, that’s another part of the process that non-meteorologists rarely see or get the opportunity to learn about.

Specifically about the Indiana State Fair incident, colleague Brad Panovich writes:

I love technology and especially my iPhone, but a weather app is not a meteorologist just like WebMD is not a doctor.

I couldn’t agree more.  Weather, like health, is one thing we all have in common.  We’re all subject to it, and nearly all of us talk or complain about it.  Everyone’s got an opinion, and now, everyone can have access to “pro-sumer” and even professional-grade tools, empowering everyone to observe the atmosphere, predict the weather, and get forecasts from the great database in the sky.  But simply having access to the tools of the trade does not make one capable of plying that trade: Training, knowledge, and experience do.  However, that line is being blurred with every new app that’s released.  Unless we as an industry make it clear what value we bring to the table, we will blur that line until everyone’s an expert.

And if everyone’s an expert, no one is.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING S OF JAMAICA WITH AXIS FROM 18N77W TO 12N78W MOVING W 
15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLEAR MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION AROUND THE AXIS...BUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE 
CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY 
WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC 
ALONG 19N33W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N34W MOVING W 15-20 
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 
WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN EARLIER ASCAT 
DATA. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W SW 
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 16N24W TO S OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 13N34W TO 8N45W. THE EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
HAS DISRUPTED THE CONFLUENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND THEREFORE WAS 
NOT ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...AN AREA 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 
47W-57W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE WEST ATLC. IN 
ITS WAVE...UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS 
EVENING...PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NE GULF...ANALYZED FROM 28N83W 
TO 27N86W TO 29N90W. NO CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
FRONT AS THE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THIS 
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN 
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 82W. AN ACTIVE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF JAMAICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 74W-80W. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE OFF 
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THESE TWO COUNTRIES. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. EXPECT THE TROPICAL 
WAVE TO MOVE WWD INTO THE WEST CARIBBEAN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION TO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC 
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO 
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 32N75W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA 
NEAR 29N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N57W WITHOUT 
ANY CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY 
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N58W AND A 1024 MB 
HIGH NEAR 33N34W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO 
AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST. THE FIRST IS E OF 45W WITH CLEARING 
AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W. THE SECOND AREA IS N OF THE 
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-74W.

Hints of Fall were in the air this morning!

 

Dothan 66

Panama City 66

Abbeville 59

     It felt great outside this morning! Don’t get used to it though….we will have one more morning (Wednesday) in upper 60’s before lower 70’s return Thursday through the Weekend

Much dried air has finally filtered in over the top of us! And that means those high humidity levels have dropped considerably during the day.

With drier and cooler air moving into place, our overnight lows will be falling into the mid 60s by daybreak!

The only areas that will not be falling into the mid 60s will be along the coast where a weak seabreeze is keeping the moisture levels up. Morning lows along the Gulf will be in the lower 70s, which will still be a noticeable – and welcome – change.

Over the weekend a very long line of powerful storms moved through Indianapolis, and through the Indianapolis State Fair. Five people were confirmed dead, and dozens injured as a result of very powerful straightline winds gusting out ahead of the storm and collapsing a large stage.

One of the things that upset me about this incident, besides the obvious loss of life and injuries, is that post-incident, information is now coming out that this could have been avoided… to an extent.

The National Weather Service is indicating that they gave a 30 minute lead time issuing their warnings. While fairgoers claim that they were informed ten minutes after that warning was issued, there was still enough time to move people away from that stage.

Winds preceding the line of storms were estimated between 60 and 70 mph. This is more than strong enough to collapse the stage. Essentially it was acting like a large parachute, or a beach umbrella. The canopy made it easier to become a dangerous object.

The major problem I have with this incident is not a matter of 40 minutes versus 20 minutes of warning. The organizers were well aware of the stong possibility of violent thunderstorms a day before the event. A “wait and see” attitude was taken instead of an “act and prevent” mode. This resulted in several injuries and the loss of life.

With the amount of people estimated at such an event, you need a lot more than an hour to evacuate or disassemble. There was roughly a 9 minute lead time to get out of this storm. Not nearly enough time to move to safety.

However, this was not a system that just “popped up”. It was being tracked several miles before it’s arrival. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to know that when you see a menacing line of red moving towards an area, you need a place of safety readily accessible.

Organizers were quoted as saying that this incident was a “Fluke of Nature” when in fact it was a classic situation of an organized severe weather event that could be followed well before the actual arrival.

While having smart phones with radar and text alert IS helpful, it only works when it’s taken seriously. And even then, that may not be enough.

Trust your gut! If a storm LOOKS ominous, don’t wait to see what happens, because it might be worse than you think.

Concerts and events can always be rescheduled, lives cannot. This is a situation where I believe something should have been done to be more proactive. Cancel or postpone an event at the risk it doesn’t happen and deal with the consequences then. Having people safe from what happened over the weekend would have come with a lot less criticism.

If an event IS cancelled, know that it was done so with thought involved. Move to safety if someone tells you to leave. You’ll never regret being safe over sorry. Trust your local meteorologists. Our job is to help keep you safe.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNAL
MINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS.  IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 740 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS NEAR 13N35W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NW FROM THE 
LOW TO 19N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
15N-18N BETWEEN 38W-40W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE W-NW AT 13 KT.

A WELL-DEFINED 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 195 NM S OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N24W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING N 
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 19N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 22W-25W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W AT 13-17 
KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 20N75W 
TO 12N77W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP 
CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF W AFRICA 
NEAR 20N16W EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH SURFACE LOWS IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES...11N24W AND 13N35W THEN CONTINUING S TO 5N46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA 
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 12N-15N. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
26W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 28N92W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS 
S FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI TO THE MIDDLE KEYS TO 24N83W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N TO OVER CUBA E OF 
84W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 91W. A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE 
W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE W GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 
25N88W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS 
EVENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF LATE SUN MOVING 
SLOWLY S THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W WHILE A  
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER 
THE E INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF PANAMA GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N 
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS 
HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI MOVING INTO 
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
W CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING E CARIBBEAN UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SUN AND 
MON AS W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W ALONG 
28N78W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND TO OVER CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 
26N64W AND EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N53W SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 26N51W TO 20N54W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
21N-26N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N50W LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER 
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
LINGER THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N BY MON. THE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES CURRENTLY NEAR 
13N35W...POSSIBLY BE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC LATE MON AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY TUE. THE SECOND 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 11N24W...POSSIBLY BE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC LATE SAT AND 
SHOULD MOVE NW OF THE CARIBBEAN BY MON.

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
458 PM CDT wed aug 10 2011

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
southeastern coffee county in southeast alabama,
southwestern dale county in southeast alabama,
north central geneva county in southeast alabama,
extreme west central houston county in southeast alabama…

* until 545 PM CDT

* at 451 PM CDT, emergency management officials reported a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. this storm was located near enterprise, and also near coppinville, and moving south at 20 mph.

* the severe thunderstorm will be near,
cool springs and cairns aaf by 505 PM CDT,
clayhatchee by 510 PM CDT,
bellwood by 520 PM CDT,
high bluff by 530 PM CDT
(6 miles) west of bald hill by 535 PM CDT,
hendrix crossroad, hartford, dundee and oak grove by 540 pm CDT…

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this storm has a history of producing destructive winds. seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service in tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. or, you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your county emergency management. they will relay your report to the National Weather Service.

&&

lat, lon 3113 8558 3106 8586 3134 8590 3139 8576
time, mot, loc 2157Z 340Deg 16Kt 3129 8580

     On average, the Wiregrass receives around 70 days with thunderstorms during the year, and the highest concentration of these occurs during the peak of the Summer..or right now. Many times you may hear thunder and see lightning, but never get the rain. Yesterday at my house I heard rumbling thunder for several hours and saw very little rain. So what is Thunder exactly?

    First of all, we need to explain why you can never have thunder without lightning. Lighting MAY be too far away to observe when hearing thunder because it might be diffuse, or cloud to cloud, but..lightning always accompanies thunder.

     The Southeast is also the lightning capitol of the United States. Lightning occurs when there are different charges, positive and negative within a thunderstorm.  Lightning is VERY hot….five times hotter than the sun, and when it bolts…it releases a LOT of heat. A lightning bolt heats the air by 54,000 degrees Farenheit!

     Heating the air this quickly, in literally fractions of a second, causes the air around the bolt to expand extremely quickly. This rapid expansion creates a shock wave that we hear as thunder. The speed of light is thousands of times faster than the speed of sound, which is why we hear thunder after we see lightning.

    Sometimes we hear thunder as a loud, crisp cracking, and sometimes we hear it as a low, long rumbling. The way we hear thunder depends on our distance to the storm. If we are very close it sounds like a clap or a cracking sound. This is generally when the storm is right on top of you.

    Rumbing..almost suspended thunder is when a storm is fmuch further away, and many times you do not see the lightning accompanied with it. The extended rumbling happens for two reasons: for one sound bounces off of other objects when it is far away, such as terrain and buildings, and two, you may be hearing thunder from different points on the stroke. A lightning bolt can extend for up to 5 miles, and hearing the thunder from different parts of it can make it sound longer. Also, there can be several bolts of lighting stemming from one, which extends the length you hear the rumble.

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
523 PM CDT tue aug 9 2011

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
southeastern dale county in southeast alabama,
southwestern henry county in southeast alabama,
houston county in southeast alabama,
western early county in southwest georgia…

* until 600 PM cdt/700 PM edt/

* at 519 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. this storm was located 14 miles north of dothan, or near goldberg field, and moving southeast at 30 mph.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to sylvan grove, blackwood, midland city, newville, napier
field, grimes, kelly springs, headland, headland municipal
a/p, w. main/brannon st, green acres, jones crossroads,
peterman, kinsey, grandberry crossroads, taylor, smyrna,
pleasant plains, webb, rehobeth, ardilla, pearce, sigma,
cowarts, olympia spa resort, enon, wilson mill, memphis,
barber, avon, keytons, columbia, garretts crossroads,
ashford, hodgesville, sealy springs, pansey, madrid,
lovetown, farley nuclear plant, harmon, gordon, cottonwood, hilton and cedar springs.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this storm has a history of producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service in tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. or, you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your county emergency management. they will relay your report to the National Weather Service.

&&

lat, lon 3123 8495 3103 8524 3101 8546 3117 8549
3120 8548 3120 8550 3136 8553 3145 8536
time, mot, loc 2222Z 319Deg 27Kt 3140 8543

WWUS62 KTAE 092146
WCNTAE

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 756
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
546 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

The National Weather Service Has Issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 756 in Effect Until midnight EDT /11 PM Cdt/ Tonight for The Following Areas

in alabama this watch includes 5 counties

in southeast alabama

coffee dale geneva henry houston

in florida this watch includes 4 counties

in florida

holmes jackson walton washington

in georgia this watch includes 14 counties

in southwest georgia

baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady lee miller mitchell quitman randolph seminole terrell

this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, arlington,
ashford, bainbridge, blakely, bonifay, cairo, camilla,
chipley, colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts, crystal lake,
cuthbert, daleville, dawson, de funiak springs,
donalsonville, dothan, douglasville, edison, enterprise,
five points, fort gaines, fort rucker, geneva, georgetown,
graceville, hartford, headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey,
leary, leesburg, malone, malvern, marianna, morgan,
newton, ozark, pelham, rehobeth, samson, shellman,
slocomb, smithville, sneads, taylor and webb.



Rain Clouds Moving Out, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Looking North from Target.

Sent from my Droid.

WWUS72 KTAE 060736
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-062200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0008.110806T1700Z-110806T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011 /236 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011/

Heat Advisory in Effect From 1 PM EDT /noon Cdt/ This
Afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM Cdt/ This Evening…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a heat advisory.

* temperatures, air temperatures will range from 90 to 95 near the coast and 96 to 100 degrees inland. maximum heat index
readings will be around 110 degrees.

* impacts, prolonged exposure to this heat and humidity can be dangerous if proper precautions are not taken.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices between 110 and 114 is expected. the heat index measures how hot the air feels to your skin when the humidity is factored in.

take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. heat stroke is an emergency, call 911. to avoid this, wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. if you must be outdoors, schedule frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments.

&&

WWUS72 KTAE 031924
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-042300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0007.110804T1700Z-110804T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110803T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 324 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011 /224 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011/

A Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Until 7 PM EDT /6 PM Cdt/
This Evening…

…a heat advisory is now in effect from 1 PM EDT /noon cdt/ to 7 pm EDT /6 PM cdt/ thursday…

* temperature, air temperatures will range from 92 to 95 along the coast and 96 to 102 degrees inland. maximum heat index
readings will be around 110 degrees today, and between 110 and 114 degrees on thursday.

* impacts, prolonged exposure to this heat and humidity can be dangerous if proper precautions are not taken.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

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