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Extended models show Katia intensifying to a hurricane by Thursday, but turning it out to sea.
Models continue to suggest developments in the Gulf by Friday….
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... T.D. TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.2N 28.4W AS OF 29/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 360 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 18N18W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.D. TWELVE HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY ALLOWING A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 10N45W TO 10N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W TO THE COAST OF COLUMBIA AT 09N76W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS EVENING...WHILE THE EASTERN GULF SHOWS SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD JUST SLIGHTLY INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...LIKELY ENHANCING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA AND PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER YUCATAN...SHOULD LEAD TOWARD EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP NE-SW TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONVERGING WITH WEAKER TRADES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COHERENT SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE CONVERGENCE LINE...AND THUS THE CONVECTION...MAY SHIFT WESTWARD AND BECOME ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN. THUS GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS T.D. TWELVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE TWO PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT...ONE EXTENDING FROM 17N40W TO 26N37W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 27N51W TO 28N46W TO 30N40W. THE FIRST...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10...SHOWED A BRIEF FLAREUP OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT NOW ONLY HAS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 18N. THERE MAY BE AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH WESTWARD...THOUGH THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE 18 UTC MAP. THE SECOND TROUGH HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 60W...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. EXCEPT FOR SOME 20 KT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND T.D. TWELVE...THE TRADEWINDS ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER STRONG RIDGE ALONG 18N PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE.
Right now, all 3 of the major forecast models are showing a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm just off the Texas coast this coming Labor Day Weekend!
Now, forecasting anything that far out is Voodoo Land, BUT, since 3 of the forecast models are “homed-in” on that area, it’ll be interesting to see what happens…
Mark your calendars!
But do it in pencil…
It’s almost hard to believe it has been six long years since the landfall in New Orleans of the one of the most devistating hurricanes to ever affect the United States, Hurricane Katrina bore down. One of the most costly and fatal storms is still remembered vividly in the minds of those affected.
Every six years the World Meteorological Organization repeats the list of storm names, and now we are upon the list that held Katrina. Katrina’s name was retired, and replaced with the name Katia. It sounds a little close to Katrina for my liking. Ironically, on this day six years after Katrina, Katia may likely be born from Tropical Depression #12.
Below is a message sent out by the New Orleans National Weather Service preceeding Katrina. It is eery, and accurate and very interesting.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
…
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…
.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000 FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT. RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION... COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
6'+ swell from Hurricane Irene along FL coast
- Hurricane Irene Waves, Ormond Beach, FL Aug 26, 2011
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER WINDS. IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION... IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 75.0W AT 25/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 160 NM...295 KM SE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 705 NM...1300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AT LEAST 250 NM FROM THE CENTER...WITH DRIER AIR IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PERIPHERY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N27W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE 1007 MB LOW AT 13N27W TO NEAR 10N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THERE TO 13N48W TO 13N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WITH ALMOST NO SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE VERY WEAK THIS EVENING WITH MAX OF 10 KT E IN THE NEAR THE U.S. GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...BUT NO CONCENTRATED OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE FOUND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND WILL BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HURRICANE IRENE REMAINING EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HURRICANE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE ARE PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LIKEWISE THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CAUSED THE NORMAL TRADEWIND REGIME TO BE DISRUPTED. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND IN THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEAK SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED. A 1500Z ASCAT PASS AND SOME SHIPS INDICATE THAT SW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE NW AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY...CONVECTION AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NE OUTFLOW FROM IRENE PREVAILS AND IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIRRUS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE CIRCULATION AROUND MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE IS BECOMING QUITE LARGE WITH 20 KT WINDS EXTENDING NEARLY 600 NM ACROSS. AS THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL SEE DIMINISHING RAINFALL. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N44W. THIS LOW REACQUIRED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...BUT IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AGAIN THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HAS WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1027 MB HIGH AT 35N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM WEST AFRICA ALONG 20N TO 45W. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N53W. SW WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
We’re in the thick of it now…Hurricane Season’s peak months. It’s not uncommon to see several areas of activity stemming from what us Meteorologists like to call the ‘African Wave Train’…storm complexes stemming off the Western Coast of Africa near the intertropical convergence zone.
Tropical Strom Irene became a Category 1 Hurricane early Monday morning. Irene will be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2008. Hurricane Ike was the last hurricane to hit the United States around Galveston, Texas as a Cat 2 Hurricane, but it has been since 2005 that a Major (considered Category 3 hurricane) has hit the United States with Hurricane Wilma.
This is the longest the United States has ever gone without a major hurricane strike since the 1800′s. Current paths of Irene have shifted the storm Northward, which will steer the storm away from the mountainous range of Haiti. This spells trouble for the Carolinas. The last hurricane to hit South Carolina was Gaston back in 2004, but Irene has the potential to be more severe. Since it is a Cat 1 now, and will have very little to break it apart it is expected to intensify as it moves over extremely warm water.
It should be interesting to watch how the system unfolds over the next two days, which will ultimately decide how far north it goes, but at this point Florida will likely experience high surf, and potential Tropical Storm Winds, as well as some rain…but the brunt of it should arrive late Friday or early Saturday somewhere along the Carolinas
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVERY AS OF 19/1800. HARVEY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 84.2W OR ABOUT 135 NM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS. HARVEY IS MOVING W NEAR 9 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 81W-88W IMPACTING EXTREME NRN HONDURAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NRN HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD CAUSE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 17N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR 13N AROUND A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 17W-23W....AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-24W. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 17N48W TO 9N47W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS AROUND A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-53W...AND SE OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 42W-47W. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ACTIVE TRPCL WAVE OVER THE FAR ERN TRPCL ATLC HAS SPLIT THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE SECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA...WHILE THE OTHER CONTINUES ON THE W SIDE OF THE TRPCL WAVE ALONG 13N22W 11N35W TO THE TRPCL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC NEAR 13N48W. CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER WRN TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. THIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ERN MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE NE GULF WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. HARVERY IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING NRN HONDURAS AND HEADING WWD TOWARDS THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W...AND S OF 12N TO PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT T.S. HARVEY TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE ERN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 73W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND REACHING S FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N74W TO 28N80W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 31N65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 31N57W TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N54W TO 28N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N29W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES ARE CENTERED NEAR 25N48W...AND 34N33W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 15W N OF 25N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DUST E OF 50W TO THE N OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 12N80W. A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 NM ENE OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 9-13 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THE 18/1800 UTC MAP ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 16W FROM 13N-21N. A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-16N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG A LINE FROM 12N19W 14N19W TO INLAND OVER SENEGAL NEAR DAKAR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-25W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTEND FROM 19N43W ALONG 15N43W TO JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N41W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS COVERING A BROAD AREA AND BECOMING TILTED NW/SE. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE DEPICTION ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SPLIT MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 16W AS A RESULT OF A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ONE PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA. THE OTHER PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 15N31W RUNNING JUST S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N41W TO 9N48W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 9N48W ALONG 10N55W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 43W-48W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 24N ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 92W-96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA THEN INTO THE GULF NEAR TALLAHASSEE ALONG 27N85W 24N88W TO 24N92W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE LOUISIANA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SPLITS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC WITH A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE W GULF NEAR 27N95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF THROUGH MON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS FEATURE IS DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 75W-86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-75W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI AFTERNOON TO INLAND OVER BELIZE SAT NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL ENTER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE W ATLC THEN THROUGH 32N78W TO NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER W CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 32N74W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N55W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N57W ACROSS HISPANIOLA/ PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N60W TO 32N55W. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 57W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N59W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TWO AREAS OF SAHARAN DRY AIR ARE ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. THE LARGEST S ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-30N E OF 57W. THE SECOND IS SMALLER N OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SAT THROUGH MON.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N82W 15N80W 11N80W MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 16N. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING INDICATING THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-81W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 82W-84W. INTERESTS IN THE NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 17N39W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N39W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINGUISHABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N28W TO S OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N39W TO 9N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N47W TO 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER NW TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. THIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WRN GULF CENTERED AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 29N84W 27N88W TO 25N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NE GULF NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 91W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 97W. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DISSIPATING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WRN CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND ACROSS JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A CLUSTER IS ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF WRN CUBA. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 75W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN 75W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SLIGHTLY INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N78W TO 29N80W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 25N57W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 54W-61W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 56W-61W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC WITH CENTERS NEAR 23N41W AND 36N34W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO JUST SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. TWO AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST ARE ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. THE FIRST IS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC AND E OF 55W. THE SECOND IS N OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 61W-70W.
Here is the current Drought Monitor as of August 18th. South Alabama is in much better shape since a month ago, however we are due for some rain. September and October are not far off, and typically lead the Southeast into a drier part of the year. While some don’t want to hear it, a weak tropical system is exactly what we could use to completely reverse our current drought levels.
That being said, the Tropics are starting to get their act together…and accordingly right with entering the busiest time of hurricane season (Mid-August through late September). Currently there are four tropical waves between the Caribbean and the Atlantic. One of them shows strong potential for development in the next day or two, and will likely be our 8th named storm, Tropical Storm Harvey. Interestingly, the previous storm Tropical Storm Gert set the record in giving the season the most storms without having become hurricanes.
What will be Harvey should have no impact on the United States as it moves towards Guatemala and Central America. Behind that is a smaller wave that shows slower signs of development, but shows long term signs of development and “potential” impact on the United States next week.
This tropical wave is approximately 875 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands and could have potential to become a tropical system late next week.
This is the GFS 12Z model of what that wave COULD become next Friday in the Gulf. It must be noted though that a LOT can change in intensity and direction in a week…but it is certainly worth paying attention to!
In the meantime…Local weather remains quiet through the weekend as our dewpoints unfortunately creep back to uncomfortable territory in the low 70′s, up from the low 60′s earlier this week. This spells high heat index. Friday and Saturday will be 93-95 with heat index of 99-102. Rain chances remain fairly low, isolated mainly to the coastal seabreeze South of I-10, but a stray shower or two may make it over the state line. Lots of sunshine otherwise!
A blog written by Meteorologist Nate Johnson of http://www.digitalmeteorologist.wordpress.com
When Apple first released the iPhone, one ad that got a lot of attention — so much of the kind of attention that it’s nowhere to be found on YouTube — was one featuring someone purporting to be an airline pilot. The pilot says air traffic control told them they can’t take off due to weather at their destination, but thanks to his iPhone, he knew better. He pulls up the radar for their destination, confirms there’s no bad weather there, and tells ATC, who promptly and without question gives them the go-ahead for takeoff.
Photo courtesy of Flickr user Twon
Anyone familiar with the inner workings of commercial aviation knows the flaws with that ad, but its nonsense raises an interesting point. With the explosion in the smartphone industry, a lot of folks are walking around with very powerful and capable computers in their pockets. The range of applications available is fantastic for experts and enthusiasts alike, as they take a wide range of information and data products and put it all in the hands of, well, experts and enthusiasts alike.
Herein lies a potential problem. Without getting into the details of the State Fair incident — most of which will only be uncovered by a proper and independent investigation, regardless of the governor’s “fluke” conclusion — this begs the question: Does putting these tools and data in someone’s hands automatically make them credible and qualified to use those tools and interpret those data? Clearly, the answer to that is “no” — however, there’s more than enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that’s exactly what happens anyway.
We know, for example, that people under a threat will seek to confirm or personalize that threat before deciding whether to take protective action. One way some have done this is, after watching a television meteorologist analyze radar data during a severe weather cut-in, attempting to recreate what they’ve seen on TV. If they’re successful in this re-creation, that is often “good enough” for confirmation and will open the door toward taking action.
Velocity image showing a potential tornado, courtesy of Flickr user jastrzab
The problem is that radar interpretation is not for the timid. It’s an area where what you don’t know that you don’t know — akin to Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” — can bite you. If you have not been trained and don’t know about aliased (or improperly de-aliased) Doppler velocities, for example, you might falsely identify a tornado, or worse, miss or misidentify an actual one. And radar interpretation doesn’t — and should never — take place in a vacuum. If you were to correctly identify a fine line from surrounding echoes or clutter, how do you know whether it is a harmless wind shift or the harbinger of strong winds? Even the best smartphone radar apps don’t provide the necessary environmental context to make that kind of assessment with any kind of certainty. However, that’s another part of the process that non-meteorologists rarely see or get the opportunity to learn about.
Specifically about the Indiana State Fair incident, colleague Brad Panovich writes:
I love technology and especially my iPhone, but a weather app is not a meteorologist just like WebMD is not a doctor.
I couldn’t agree more. Weather, like health, is one thing we all have in common. We’re all subject to it, and nearly all of us talk or complain about it. Everyone’s got an opinion, and now, everyone can have access to “pro-sumer” and even professional-grade tools, empowering everyone to observe the atmosphere, predict the weather, and get forecasts from the great database in the sky. But simply having access to the tools of the trade does not make one capable of plying that trade: Training, knowledge, and experience do. However, that line is being blurred with every new app that’s released. Unless we as an industry make it clear what value we bring to the table, we will blur that line until everyone’s an expert.
And if everyone’s an expert, no one is.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING S OF JAMAICA WITH AXIS FROM 18N77W TO 12N78W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLEAR MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND THE AXIS...BUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 19N33W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 36W-39W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W SW ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 16N24W TO S OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N34W TO 8N45W. THE EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DISRUPTED THE CONFLUENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND THEREFORE WAS NOT ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 47W-57W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE WEST ATLC. IN ITS WAVE...UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NE GULF...ANALYZED FROM 28N83W TO 27N86W TO 29N90W. NO CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS THE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 82W. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF JAMAICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 74W-80W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THESE TWO COUNTRIES. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WWD INTO THE WEST CARIBBEAN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 32N75W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N57W WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N58W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N34W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST. THE FIRST IS E OF 45W WITH CLEARING AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W. THE SECOND AREA IS N OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-74W.
Hints of Fall were in the air this morning!
Dothan 66
Panama City 66
Abbeville 59
It felt great outside this morning! Don’t get used to it though….we will have one more morning (Wednesday) in upper 60′s before lower 70′s return Thursday through the Weekend
Much dried air has finally filtered in over the top of us! And that means those high humidity levels have dropped considerably during the day.
With drier and cooler air moving into place, our overnight lows will be falling into the mid 60s by daybreak!
The only areas that will not be falling into the mid 60s will be along the coast where a weak seabreeze is keeping the moisture levels up. Morning lows along the Gulf will be in the lower 70s, which will still be a noticeable – and welcome – change.
Over the weekend a very long line of powerful storms moved through Indianapolis, and through the Indianapolis State Fair. Five people were confirmed dead, and dozens injured as a result of very powerful straightline winds gusting out ahead of the storm and collapsing a large stage.
One of the things that upset me about this incident, besides the obvious loss of life and injuries, is that post-incident, information is now coming out that this could have been avoided… to an extent.
The National Weather Service is indicating that they gave a 30 minute lead time issuing their warnings. While fairgoers claim that they were informed ten minutes after that warning was issued, there was still enough time to move people away from that stage.
Winds preceding the line of storms were estimated between 60 and 70 mph. This is more than strong enough to collapse the stage. Essentially it was acting like a large parachute, or a beach umbrella. The canopy made it easier to become a dangerous object.
The major problem I have with this incident is not a matter of 40 minutes versus 20 minutes of warning. The organizers were well aware of the stong possibility of violent thunderstorms a day before the event. A “wait and see” attitude was taken instead of an “act and prevent” mode. This resulted in several injuries and the loss of life.
With the amount of people estimated at such an event, you need a lot more than an hour to evacuate or disassemble. There was roughly a 9 minute lead time to get out of this storm. Not nearly enough time to move to safety.
However, this was not a system that just “popped up”. It was being tracked several miles before it’s arrival. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to know that when you see a menacing line of red moving towards an area, you need a place of safety readily accessible.
Organizers were quoted as saying that this incident was a “Fluke of Nature” when in fact it was a classic situation of an organized severe weather event that could be followed well before the actual arrival.
While having smart phones with radar and text alert IS helpful, it only works when it’s taken seriously. And even then, that may not be enough.
Trust your gut! If a storm LOOKS ominous, don’t wait to see what happens, because it might be worse than you think.
Concerts and events can always be rescheduled, lives cannot. This is a situation where I believe something should have been done to be more proactive. Cancel or postpone an event at the risk it doesn’t happen and deal with the consequences then. Having people safe from what happened over the weekend would have come with a lot less criticism.
If an event IS cancelled, know that it was done so with thought involved. Move to safety if someone tells you to leave. You’ll never regret being safe over sorry. Trust your local meteorologists. Our job is to help keep you safe.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 THROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNAL MINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 740 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N35W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW TO 19N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 38W-40W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE W-NW AT 13 KT. A WELL-DEFINED 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 195 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N24W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 19N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 22W-25W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W AT 13-17 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 20N75W TO 12N77W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF W AFRICA NEAR 20N16W EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH SURFACE LOWS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...11N24W AND 13N35W THEN CONTINUING S TO 5N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 12N-15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 26W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 28N92W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI TO THE MIDDLE KEYS TO 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N TO OVER CUBA E OF 84W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE W GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N88W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF LATE SUN MOVING SLOWLY S THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING E CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SUN AND MON AS W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W ALONG 28N78W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND TO OVER CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N64W AND EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N53W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 26N51W TO 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N50W LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N BY MON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES CURRENTLY NEAR 13N35W...POSSIBLY BE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE MON AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY TUE. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 11N24W...POSSIBLY BE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC LATE SAT AND SHOULD MOVE NW OF THE CARIBBEAN BY MON.
bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
458 PM CDT wed aug 10 2011
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for,
southeastern coffee county in southeast alabama,
southwestern dale county in southeast alabama,
north central geneva county in southeast alabama,
extreme west central houston county in southeast alabama…
* until 545 PM CDT
* at 451 PM CDT, emergency management officials reported a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. this storm was located near enterprise, and also near coppinville, and moving south at 20 mph.
* the severe thunderstorm will be near,
cool springs and cairns aaf by 505 PM CDT,
clayhatchee by 510 PM CDT,
bellwood by 520 PM CDT,
high bluff by 530 PM CDT
(6 miles) west of bald hill by 535 PM CDT,
hendrix crossroad, hartford, dundee and oak grove by 540 pm CDT…
precautionary/preparedness actions…
this storm has a history of producing destructive winds. seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!
relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service in tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. or, you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your county emergency management. they will relay your report to the National Weather Service.
&&
lat, lon 3113 8558 3106 8586 3134 8590 3139 8576
time, mot, loc 2157Z 340Deg 16Kt 3129 8580
On average, the Wiregrass receives around 70 days with thunderstorms during the year, and the highest concentration of these occurs during the peak of the Summer..or right now. Many times you may hear thunder and see lightning, but never get the rain. Yesterday at my house I heard rumbling thunder for several hours and saw very little rain. So what is Thunder exactly?
First of all, we need to explain why you can never have thunder without lightning. Lighting MAY be too far away to observe when hearing thunder because it might be diffuse, or cloud to cloud, but..lightning always accompanies thunder.
The Southeast is also the lightning capitol of the United States. Lightning occurs when there are different charges, positive and negative within a thunderstorm. Lightning is VERY hot….five times hotter than the sun, and when it bolts…it releases a LOT of heat. A lightning bolt heats the air by 54,000 degrees Farenheit!
Heating the air this quickly, in literally fractions of a second, causes the air around the bolt to expand extremely quickly. This rapid expansion creates a shock wave that we hear as thunder. The speed of light is thousands of times faster than the speed of sound, which is why we hear thunder after we see lightning.
Sometimes we hear thunder as a loud, crisp cracking, and sometimes we hear it as a low, long rumbling. The way we hear thunder depends on our distance to the storm. If we are very close it sounds like a clap or a cracking sound. This is generally when the storm is right on top of you.
Rumbing..almost suspended thunder is when a storm is fmuch further away, and many times you do not see the lightning accompanied with it. The extended rumbling happens for two reasons: for one sound bounces off of other objects when it is far away, such as terrain and buildings, and two, you may be hearing thunder from different points on the stroke. A lightning bolt can extend for up to 5 miles, and hearing the thunder from different parts of it can make it sound longer. Also, there can be several bolts of lighting stemming from one, which extends the length you hear the rumble.
bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
523 PM CDT tue aug 9 2011
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for,
southeastern dale county in southeast alabama,
southwestern henry county in southeast alabama,
houston county in southeast alabama,
western early county in southwest georgia…
* until 600 PM cdt/700 PM edt/
* at 519 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. this storm was located 14 miles north of dothan, or near goldberg field, and moving southeast at 30 mph.
* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to sylvan grove, blackwood, midland city, newville, napier
field, grimes, kelly springs, headland, headland municipal
a/p, w. main/brannon st, green acres, jones crossroads,
peterman, kinsey, grandberry crossroads, taylor, smyrna,
pleasant plains, webb, rehobeth, ardilla, pearce, sigma,
cowarts, olympia spa resort, enon, wilson mill, memphis,
barber, avon, keytons, columbia, garretts crossroads,
ashford, hodgesville, sealy springs, pansey, madrid,
lovetown, farley nuclear plant, harmon, gordon, cottonwood, hilton and cedar springs.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
this storm has a history of producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!
relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service in tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. or, you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your county emergency management. they will relay your report to the National Weather Service.
&&
lat, lon 3123 8495 3103 8524 3101 8546 3117 8549
3120 8548 3120 8550 3136 8553 3145 8536
time, mot, loc 2222Z 319Deg 27Kt 3140 8543
WWUS62 KTAE 092146
WCNTAE
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 756
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
546 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011
The National Weather Service Has Issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 756 in Effect Until midnight EDT /11 PM Cdt/ Tonight for The Following Areas
in alabama this watch includes 5 counties
in southeast alabama
coffee dale geneva henry houston
in florida this watch includes 4 counties
in florida
holmes jackson walton washington
in georgia this watch includes 14 counties
in southwest georgia
baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady lee miller mitchell quitman randolph seminole terrell
this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, arlington,
ashford, bainbridge, blakely, bonifay, cairo, camilla,
chipley, colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts, crystal lake,
cuthbert, daleville, dawson, de funiak springs,
donalsonville, dothan, douglasville, edison, enterprise,
five points, fort gaines, fort rucker, geneva, georgetown,
graceville, hartford, headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey,
leary, leesburg, malone, malvern, marianna, morgan,
newton, ozark, pelham, rehobeth, samson, shellman,
slocomb, smithville, sneads, taylor and webb.
Looking North from Target.
Sent from my Droid.
WWUS72 KTAE 060736
NPWTAE
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-062200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0008.110806T1700Z-110806T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011 /236 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011/
Heat Advisory in Effect From 1 PM EDT /noon Cdt/ This
Afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM Cdt/ This Evening…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a heat advisory.
* temperatures, air temperatures will range from 90 to 95 near the coast and 96 to 100 degrees inland. maximum heat index
readings will be around 110 degrees.
* impacts, prolonged exposure to this heat and humidity can be dangerous if proper precautions are not taken.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices between 110 and 114 is expected. the heat index measures how hot the air feels to your skin when the humidity is factored in.
take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. heat stroke is an emergency, call 911. to avoid this, wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. if you must be outdoors, schedule frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments.
&&
WWUS72 KTAE 031924
NPWTAE
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-042300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0007.110804T1700Z-110804T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110803T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 324 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011 /224 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011/
A Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Until 7 PM EDT /6 PM Cdt/
This Evening…
…a heat advisory is now in effect from 1 PM EDT /noon cdt/ to 7 pm EDT /6 PM cdt/ thursday…
* temperature, air temperatures will range from 92 to 95 along the coast and 96 to 102 degrees inland. maximum heat index
readings will be around 110 degrees today, and between 110 and 114 degrees on thursday.
* impacts, prolonged exposure to this heat and humidity can be dangerous if proper precautions are not taken.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.
&&
