Monthly Archive

Thanks to Pat for taking these photos (and his wife Cindy for sending them to us!).

Both pics were taken Wednesday afternoon. The top one is from near Troy University in Dothan and the bottom one is from Daleville.

Looks like a tornado, but has to be because of the angle – no circulation was indicated in our area at any time Wednesday.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED 13.6N 44.7W AT 21/2100 UTC OR 
1115 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
13N-16N BETWEEN 42W-45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 40W-44W AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N22W TO 7N30W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO 
UNDERCUT THE WAVE NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS STREAMING W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 
8N30W TO 9N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 12N19W AND DISRUPTED ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BY THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL STORM 
OPHELIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND 
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE W 
GULF N OF 21N W OF 88W. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
STORM HILARY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS S MEXICO AND THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING AT 21/2100 UTC FROM 29N87W TO 23N90W AND 
COUPLED DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE E GULF IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 91W TO INLAND OVER 
SE CONUS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH THU ENTERING THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ON FRI. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL LINGER 
THROUGH FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THEN WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF SAT. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD OVER THE N GULF MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AT 
21/2100 UTC FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 18N85W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING THE NICARAGUA/COSTA 
RICA BORDER TO THE W TIP OF JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED 
OVER VENEZUELA COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 76W TO OVER 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH 
AND UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N82W 
TO 18N76W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 21/1800 UTC NEAR 
18N63W MOVING THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-19N. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS GENERATED 
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND 
JAMAICA MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W AND BE OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE 1012 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO THE W ATLC BY THU. TROPICAL STORM 
OPHELIA WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SAT MOVING NW OF 
THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N70W WITH AN 
UPPER LOW TO THE S APPROACHING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N74W. 
THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 31N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N64W TO 
BEYOND 30N59W PROVIDING DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 
62W-70W. A LONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E 
ATLC NEAR 32N26W SW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 26N41W TO 
25N52W. A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 
20N AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N49W AND A SECOND 1026 
MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH MON. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL APPROACH THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SAT MOVING NW OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN AND 
BE W OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY MON. 

Thanks to John and Carrie Raeburn for this photo of a dying thunderstorm near Coffee Springs yesterday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD
HEADWAY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTH OF US... 
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING FROM MS AND LA INTO AL... 
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO NEAR THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
TO THE EAST... MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN INVERTED TROF OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE CONVECTIVELY FAVORABLE AIRMASS
TOWARDS OUR REGION... BUT THUS FAR, THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE... BUT NEWER 
DEVELOPMENT IS PUSHING FURTHER INLAND TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL... 
WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
GRADUALLY STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE MARKED BY
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH DECENT UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. IN FACT...WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CLOSE TO A WASHOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WELCOME STORM TOTAL
RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 69.6W AT 14/1800 UTC 
OR ABOUT 265 NM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 475 NM 
S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 64W-70W...PRIMARILY LOCATED 
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO 
WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
THAT HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN 
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. WITH THIS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD 
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N93W ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. 
WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC WATERS...TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W 
ALONG 11N20W TO 11N30W TO 10N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N40W TO 10N46W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N48W 
TO 07N58W. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 11N20W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 10W-24W. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 08N-12N ALONG 46W. AN EARLIER 
MORNING WINDSAT PASS AROUND 14/0922 UTC CAPTURED THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONGER NE WINDS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NW FLOW ALOFT IS DOMINATE OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W CONTINUES TO PROGRESS 
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N104W 
THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SUPPORTIVE 
OF A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W THAT IS FORECAST 
TO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CURRENTLY 
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF 27N84W IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF AND IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A 
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA...CURRENTLY OVER NW ARKANSAS...WILL 
INTRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NE 
GULF WATERS WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WHILE TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK ACROSS 
THE SW NORTH ATLC...LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-70W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF 
PUERTO RICO...FAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS 
SURROUNDING THE MONA PASSAGE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS 
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N70W TO 14N72W. EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM WINDSAT AND ASCAT DEPICT 15-20 KT SE 
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THAT PARTICULAR SURFACE 
TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS ALONG 20N75W 
TO 15N79W AND IS LOCATED WITHIN A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD REGIME. 
EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE WINDS REMAIN 
PRIMARILY NE TO E THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 KT. ELSEWHERE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. 
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LINGER OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 80W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH 
ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERY DRY AIR IS ALOFT W OF 75W WHICH IS 
MAINTAINING FAIR SKIES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 
MARIA...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W 
ATLC FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 60W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A CUT OFF 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N47W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 46W-50W. OTHERWISE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N50W.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 67.5W AT 12/2100 
UTC OR ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND 
800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 62W-68W 
INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 
INCHES OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUE. MARIA SHOULD TURN 
NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES AHEAD OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONS SEABOARD DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N52W TO 11N56W MOVING W AT 
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC 
TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM 19N89W TO 13N84W 
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE 
CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE 
CONVECTION IS ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF 
82W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N27W TO 6N41W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED 
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 8N34N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF FROM 
LIBERIA NORTHWARD TO SENEGAL WITHIN 150 NM OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE 
...SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE 
SE GULF THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING A 
STATIONARY FRONT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERY DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AND THAT VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO 
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS 
OVERALL DRYING IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE 
AREA FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N90W. HOWEVER...A 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE MOSTLY 
NE WINDS TO 15 KT...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA 
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 68W...DRAWING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES 
AND PUERTO RICO. THE N CENTRAL AND FAR SW CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIR 
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF 82W 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE 
NOW INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE... 
HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS 
AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS 
COAST INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG 31N78W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH 
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. 
FARTHER TO THE SE...TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
TRACKING W-NW AND BEGIN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF MARIA NEAR 27N65W IS 
ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF 
THE W ATLC WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-29N 
BETWEEN 58W-66W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 30N52W AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. A 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH NEAR 27N40W 
WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION.

This chart, from the National Data Buoy Center, shows what’s been happening in the water under NATE over the last few days.

Because of all the cloud cover staying in the same relative location - and the winds of NATE mixing with the surface waters - the water temperature has dropped from above 87 degrees on Sunday, Sept. 4th to below 84 today, Sept. 9th.

That might not sound like a bunch, but it is for hurricane formation this time of year.

This water temperature drop is going to hamper NATE for the next day or so because of the lack of upper air strength at this time.

However, I do expect NATE to reach hurricane strength by Sunday and start moving toward the Mexican coastline.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 92.9W AT 10/0000 UTC 
OR ABOUT 225 MI...3600 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... AND 300 
MI...480 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO. NATE IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N TO 
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 91W-97W. 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL OVER MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 59.1W AT 10/0000 UTC 
OR ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF BARBADOS...OR ABOUT 185 MI...295 
KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MOVING NW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC 
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 50W-63W. 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS ISLANDS IN 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.6N 62.7W AT 09/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM N OF BERMUDA...OR ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S 
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING ENE AT 33 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 970 MB...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
OF 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND 
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/ 
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME 
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 39N-46N BETWEEN 56W-64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 
18N35W TO 6N40W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD FIELD SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 19N75W 
TO 11N77W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE 
AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS 
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 
68W-74W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC AT THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS W TO 
9N17W 11N25W. FURTHER W...A PORTION OF THE ITCZ HAS REDEVELOPED 
FROM 9N43W TO 9N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 20W-26W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 43W-52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM NATE...SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
29N81W 26N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA S OF 29N. FAIR 
WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT NATE TO REMAIN 
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. ALSO EXPECT THE 
TROUGH TO DRIFT N WITH SHOWERS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE OUTER WIND BANDS OF MARIA IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NW 
VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JAMAICA...AND CUBA. THE NW 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF HONDURAS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
65W DUE TO THE APPROACH OF MARIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR MARIA TO HAMPER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE 
TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...AND OVER THE SW YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO NATE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE THE 
DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W 
TO 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 
FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH BROKE OFF FROM THE NORTHERN EXTENT 
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N72W TO 21N73W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N30W TO 30N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
33N52W. ANOTHER 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N31W.  

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.9N 69.6W AT 08/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND 
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/ 
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY 
HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EAST COAST 
OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND EAST 
FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS 
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANTS OF KATIA NORTH OF THE 
BRITISH ISLES IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 33N-38N BETWEEN 67W-72W.

TROPICAL STORM NATE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W AT 09/0000 UTC 
OR ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO...OR ABOUT 175 
MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO...AND IS STATIONARY. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE SEE 
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 
OUTER CONVECTION FROM NATE ALSO COVERS IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS 
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NATE IS CURRENTLY 
LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY 
SHEAR. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE 
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE... TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. A 
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE 
WARNING AREA. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 
THE CENTER OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF 
21N BETWEEN 91W-95W.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 53.6W AT 09/0000 UTC 
OR ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 
19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE 
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIA 
IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT 
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS 
FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE 
DAYS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT 
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND 
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO 
THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N27W TO 8N29W 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E HISPANIOLA FROM 23N68W TO 13N68W MOVING 
WNW 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-24N 
BETWEEN 64W-68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W TO 
18N21W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS HAS BEEN DISRUPTED OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE LACK OF 
CONFLUENCE IN THE TRADE WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM 
MARIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST 
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-9N BETWEEN 36W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM NATE...SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE 
E GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 26N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 
27W-82W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS DUE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT NATE 
TO REMAIN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. ALSO 
EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE 
TROUGH.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. 
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND 
OVER PORTIONS OF NW VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S GUATEMALA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE 
HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N  COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA DUE TO NATE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA...AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE 
DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W 
TO 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W.  
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N34W TO 
26N40W PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS AND NO CONVECTION. 
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS 
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO MARIA. 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N 
69.7W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 291 NM WSW OF BERMUDA. KATIA IS 
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE 
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 66W-80W.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 44.2W. THIS 
POSITION IS ABOUT 1047 NW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MARIA IS 
MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE 
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE 
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCMAT4. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
42W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-17N 
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 20.2N 92.4W. THIS 
POSITION IS ABOUT 109 NM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO...OR ABOUT 165 NM 
NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING ESE AT 2 KT. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PUBLIC 
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ 
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 
18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FURTHER E OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 
87W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W TO 
THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
SHOWS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM 2N-16N E 0F 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-12N BETWEEN 23W-28W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W TO THE 
SOUTH OF 21N. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN 
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 54W-66W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 
16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND IS NOT ANALYZED OVER 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LIKEWISE THERE IS NO ITCZ OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFLUENCE IN THE TRADEWIND 
REGIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 10W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND FROM 6N-12N 
BETWEEN 44W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 
20.2N 92.4W. SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 29N80W 25N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 85W. FAIR WEATHER 
IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT NATE TO REMAIN 
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. ALSO EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. 
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA JAMAICA...AND CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N  COLOMBIA. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN... AND FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE KATIA...TROPICAL STORM MARIA...AND THE TWO TROPICAL 
WAVES ARE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
NEAR 35N55W. ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC 
NEAR 40N18W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
31N38W TO 25N42W PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS AND NO 
CONVECTION.  

Where’s MARIA?

That’s our next named storm… and there are 3 areas where MARIA could develop over the next 2 days…

(1) In the southern Gulf of Mexico (orange area above), (2) just east of the Leeward Islands (yellow area), or (3) what is now Tropical Depression #14.

If it’s in the Gulf (which is my guess right now), the best computer models put it moving due north – or due west!  

Here’s what the Hurricane Center is thinking…

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

KATIA WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. AS OF 2100 UTC THE CENTER 
OF HURRICANE KATIA IS NEAR 27.6N 66.7W OR ABOUT 345 MI OR 555 KM 
SSW OF BERMUDA. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.   
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 63W-67W. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 37.0W AT 
06/2100Z OR ABOUT 800 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING 
WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 
35W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO SEE THE 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 
KNHC. 

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT 
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO 
INVESTIGATE THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 
18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-97W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-14N E 0F 23W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 57W-59W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN 
HAVE DISRUPTED THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. INLAND OVER W AFRICA SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-27W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. SEE ABOVE. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N80W 
22N90W 21N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DEEPEN.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER 
PORTIONS OF N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA 
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N  COLOMBIA. IN 24 
HOURS EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE KATIA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...AND THE TWO 
TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N53W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW 
CENTER FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 48W-56W.