You are currently browsing the monthly archive for October 2011.

An unseasonably early snowstorm blew up the east coast on Saturday and Sunday producing 4-22″ of extremely heavy, wet snow. From New Jersey to Massachusettes across over 6 states, hundreds of thousands of people are without power, and thousands of trees are broken. My parents received 7″, and were told by Connecticut power not to expect power back on for nearly a week. They had dozens of trees fal to the heavy snow…and here is just a sample of what it looked like. Looks like, Trick! No treat….



IMG_20111030_181612.jpg, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.



IMG_20111030_181736.jpg, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.



I-10 Westbound Sunset shots, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

I remember coming to work early that morning knowing it was going to be a bad day for Alabama, but I had NO idea how bad…

Several days before the main event, the Storm Prediction Center had been issuing statements, and highlighting Moderate Risk areas for tornadoes and strong winds. Moderate risk areas are less common than Slight Risk areas, and to see one a few days ahead of the system red flagged me immediately.

Then, on April 26th, they  highlighted an area in Northeast Alabama for High Risk for Tornadoes and severe weather. This meant BAD news, and a day that undoubtedly would produce life threatening tornadoes.

Watching the weather so closely, yet knowing that the Wiregrass would not face this distruction, was one of the most unique weather experiences I have ever had. I couldn’t help but feel helpless that day, so I did my best that morning and noon to alert people in Southeast Alabama about what was going on to our north, since our weather really did not matter at that point. Several people in this area had children at The University of Alabama, and I knew they would be fearful for their children.

The first string of severe weather that day broke out on my shift. A large Mesoscale Convective System with powerful straightline winds and even some EF3 tornadoes moved through the Birmingham area.

This first system knocked power out for a half million people. Had that been the only event that day, April 27th would still have been viewed as a tremendous day for severe weather.

From a meteorologist’s perspective, it was an ominous feelings because I knew the main event would not be until later that day, and many people may not know this because they had lost power.

You can refer to my previous blog on the April 27/28th Outbreak if you would like statistics on the storms, but, hands down, this was one of the worst severe weather days you will ever see in your lifetime.

I was glued to the TV all that afternoon, flipping between The Weather Channel, WTVY - where Connor and Oscar were double teaming the event – and my lap top, where I watched Newstations in Birmingham streaming live coverage of the tornadoes.

Hundreds of people died that day, and it’s nearly impossible to believe that it did not somehow effect everyone Alabama, as well as parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia. Now, 6 months later, I am proud of how this state has worked hard to restore normalcy to decimated communities.

I also realize there is still a lot of work to be done. There are still lives being mourned.

I also commend first responders, the National Weather Service, and local broadcast meteorologists. I think they did an especially outstanding  job getting the word out for people to seek shelter.

Take a moment today, and remember the lives lost. Also, take it as a reminder to always take weather seriously, and be dilligent in protecting your life, and those of your loved ones, in any severe weather event.

 

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100 of our viewers got a free HD TV antenna from Antennas Direct at Toyota of Dothan Wednesday.

HD antennas allow you to watch all the local TV stations that are broadcasting in High Definition…  without having to pay a monthly fee for Cable or Satellite TV.

 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 26/0000 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 84.5W 
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL AND 250 MI...405 KM SE OF 
COZUMEL MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 
3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE 
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO 
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A REGION OF LOW 
WIND SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE SRN 
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE ALONG 7N12W TO 4N15W TO 3N22W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS AROUND 12N45W WITH 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM RINA ARE ENTERING THE FAR SE 
GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR 
MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS VERY DRY 
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER AIRMASS IS 
SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE AT LOW LEVELS. MARINE 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LIGHT 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE 
DAY REVEALED CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SCATTERED ACROSS 
THE BASIN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS AS RINA APPROACHES THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS THE MAIN FOCUS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
ACROSS THE NW WATERS OF THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE 
DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NOTICED ON 
TPW PRODUCT. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...A 1009 MB LOW 
IS ANALYZED NEAR 15N70W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
AVAILABLE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 65-77W. THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS 
THE WRN NORTH ATLC WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO 
THE AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 27N64W TO 25N70W. THE STRONGEST 
CONVECTION IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE THE GREATEST 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS NOTICED. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS 
S OF 32N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 18N41W. A SURFACE 1010 MB REFLECTION IS WELL TO THE E OF 
THE UPPER LOW NEAR 17N30W. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 
27W-38W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND 
ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N35W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA.

Couple gets hitched during a Haboob!!! (dust storm)

Hurricane Rina is currently sitting and stewing in the Western Caribbean… where the water temperature – not only at the surface but several meters down – is very warm. There is also low wind shear and both of these facets have allowed the system to rapidly intensify. While the slow moving system is currently moving Northwest, it will eventually reach some drier air to it’s North that will weaken it significantly.

Also, the cold front progged to pass through our region Thursday night will move into the Central Gulf around the time Rina enters the Gulf. This will keep it well away from the Gulf Coast and likely take it over Cuba… and possibly Key West. We’ll watch it’s progress over the next 5-7 days.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 251432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

…RINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.4N 83.9W
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB…28.67 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1021 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2011

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the
issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If
you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call
our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at:

http://www.NWS.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns11mixedcasel.htm

.EVENING UPDATE...Clear skies and CALM winds are commonplace
across the entire area-of-responsibility right now. Therefore, the
focus for the evening forecast update was almost entirely on
TEMPERATURE trends. Through 02z, temperatures have been plummeting
at a more dramatic rate than the available guidance has been
willing to indicate. In fact, the 02z temperatures are cooler in
some areas than the NAM and GFS had forecast at 06z. Basically the
temperatures this evening have been tracking along, or just below
the lower limit of the guidance envelope, but have been very
similar to temperatures at this time last NIGHT. Based on the
22.00z SOUNDING observations of the 850mb temperatures, it looks
like the axis of cooler LOW-level AIR has shifted east and
therefore more of the CWA should be in the 30s for lows tonight.

For temperature trends, CURRENT conditions and trends from last
night were weighed and used to tweak a blend of MAV and MET MOS
down by a FEW degrees. The 18z MAV guidance came in particularly
cool for inland areas of Calhoun, Liberty, Gulf, and Franklin
Counties near the Apalachicola National Forest, with lows 34-36
degrees. This area was generally excluded from the initial FROST
ADVISORY, but it currently one of the coldest locations in our
area (temperatures already 44-48 degrees). AS such, lows were
nudged down slightly in that area, and the Frost Advisory was
expanded into those locations. That area, along with our far
western areas that were quite cold last night, are expected to be
the spots that are most at-risk for frost tonight. The remainder
of the forecast area should see lows 36-39 degrees, which is
rather borderline for any WIDESPREAD frost. We did not trim the
existing area of the Frost Advisory in Georgia in order to
maintain consistency, but the advisory was also not expanded any
further east. It`s not out of the question that a few typical cold
spots in the eastern part of our area may see some frost, but as
of now it`s not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an
advisory. Lows in the city of Tallahassee should be about 5-6
degrees warmer than at the airport. Our CLIMATE sites TLH and AAF
may approach record lows tonight (34 at TLH, 44 at AAF).

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS N...AND MONSOONAL FLOW TO ITS S. THIS 
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 
80W-86W. CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A 
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE 
WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A 
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 15N17W. IT CONTINUES SW TO 6N26W. A SMALL SECTION OF 
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 6N26W TO NEAR 4N38W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA 
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N90W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE 
NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR SKIES. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND BE REPLACED BY SURFACE RIDGING 
WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
TO BECOME ZONAL WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT STILL 
LINGERS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 18N84W 
16N85W. MOST CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-79W. FURTHER 
E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER N VENEZUELA...N 
COLOMBIA...AND THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 64W-80W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 
17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER 
IN THE CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1025 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N43W. IN THE TROPICS...A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO AN EMBEDDED 1006 MB LOW AT 
9N56W TO 7N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-15N BETWEEN 46W-59W. FURTHER E...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 21N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 17N40W 
10N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N59W 
MOVING SW. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 
55W-64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONTINUES SHOWERS. ALSO 
EXPECT THE TROPICAL LOW NEAR 9N56W TO MOVE NW TOWARDS TRINIDAD 
AND DEEPEN WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

WWUS72 KTAE 211900
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-GAZ120>131-142>145-155-156-221300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FR.Y.0002.111022T0800Z-111022T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN… ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…
LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…
FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…
NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011 /200 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011/

Frost Advisory in Effect From 4 AM EDT /3 AM Cdt/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM Cdt/ Saturday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a frost advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM EDT /3 AM cdt/ to 9 am EDT /8 AM cdt/ saturday.

* temperatures(34 to) 37 degrees.

* impacts, cold temperatures and calm winds will allow for areas of frost overnight, especially in sheltered and normally
colder locations.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a frost advisory means that frost is possible. sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

A Birmingham resident was quoted several days after the April 27 & 28 Super Tornado Outbreak saying, “There were two things that got me through April 27th: Jesus and James Spann”.

This was an opening statement made at the 26th Annual National Weather Association Coference, held in Birmingham last week, and to me it speaks volumes as to how critically important broadcast meteorologists were in saving lives in April 2011.

The conference lasted several days, with meteorologists from broadcasting and forecasting avenues, coming together to discuss many weather aspects, with the first two days concentrating on the tornadic outbreaks in North Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri in April and May of 2011.

This blog isn’t going to go over everything I learned at this conference, but I’m going to do my best to highlight some of it.

First of all, everyone loves facts. The tornadoes from April 27 & 28 caused 9 billion dollars damage. 62 tornadoes developed over the course of 16 hours, with two EF 4’s tornadoes. Before the supercell outbreak during the afternoon hours, a Mesoscale Convective System blew through the northern 3rd of the state. Basically a squall line of wind driven storms moved through, at times producing EF 3 tornadoes and 100+ mph, and whipping out power to over 500, 000 households, with an estimate of 3.5 people per household. Tornadoes tracked over 2500 miles from those days, with tornadoes on the ground for a collective time of over 5 hours!

This may or may not have contributed to the number of casualties that arose during that event…which caused 251 fatalities in those two days. Several media outlets conducted surveys in the weeks following the outbreak in order to learn about how people may or may not have gotten their information concerning the severe weather. TV was an overwhelming leader, with sirens following.

Several comments noted that when watching TV media, viewers sensed a change in the tone of voice that differed from any other event they had witnessed. A severity that spoke to them beyond the words they were saying. This unquestionably saved lives.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham,Memphis and Huntsvillehad tremendous challenges that day. With a fast moving MCS moving through in the morning, warnings had to be issued very quickly. Within a squall line, tornadoes can be harder to recognize, their signatures are not as easy to denote and can deteriorate quicker than a dangerous tracked path super cell. InSmithville,Mississippion April 27, at one point the NWS was tracking thirteen different tornado warnings at one time. In addition to keeping up with dangerous storms, NWS agencies had to get the warnings out in a fast enough fashion to protect lives. Lead times for tornado warnings from Tuscaloosa varied between 30 and 60 minutes.

On a “routine” severe weather day, a NWS office typically staffs 5-7 officers to man the storms: a coordinator, social media operator and a few radar operators. Social Media operators work on NWS chat which many broadcast meteorologists and emergency management agencies use to acquire directional, intensity information as well as other things. As you can imagine, with 5 hours or tornado warnings they certainly had their hands full.  Their challenges include defining roles for staff, being flexible, and giving forecasters adequate rest in order to perform their duties.

 Despite the 500,000 homes without power after the first of 3 batches of severe weather between the 27th & 28th, broadcasters played an amazing role in preparing their audience several days in advance for deadly tornadoes. James Spann, Chief at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham still cannot present on the events of that day. It is still too fresh, too emotional. In his eyes, 251 lives were lost on his watch. But how many were saved? Tornados leveled houses, trees and everything in their paths. Debris balls were picked up on radar up to 20,000 feet high….that’s nearly 4 MILES. In Smithville, MS, a town virtually leveled, a Ford Explorer was thrown as high as a water tower, striking it, and then landing ¼ mile away.

 A meteorologist from the small town of Joplin, Missourispoke at the conference. Joplinis roughly the size of Dothan, and took a direct hit from an EF5 tornado in May 2011. This one tornado had more fatalities than April 27th & 28th combined, and even struck the hospital. The pain was poignant in this meteorologist’s voice, and he remembered the day that affected everyone. He told the audience there was a hero, who was an elderly woman near death in the hospital who ultimately died. She was a hero, because she told her son that her life was lived, and that he needed to go protect others. This tornado was easier to track by the NWS, because it was one, not dozens. But it was arguably harder to swallow because it was unstoppable. There were damage swaths that ripped tiles from cement, and left paths into the ground at times over a foot deep. Within this type tornado there is nowhere that is safe.

In summary, from the tornadic talks’ aspect of the conference, reflecting on these incidents I refer back to James Spann. He stated “opinions don’t matter, facts matter.”  And the fact is to me, that Southerners will never forget the year of 2011. Everyone, those affected and those indirectly affected will always take tornado warnings more seriously now, and be proactive with a plan of action. What was thought could never happen, did happen.Tuscaloosahad not had a tornadic path through the town since the 1930’s. It CAN happen. Heed warnings, watch local media, be flexible and communicate. Be proactive and stay ahead of a storm. Never take for granted day to day life.

  … Record daily maximum rainfall set at Apalachicola  October 18…

A record rainfall of 7.49 inches was set at Apalachicola yesterday.
This breaks the old record for October 18th of 1.73 inches set in
1989.

This also makes October 18 2011 the 4th rainiest day on record at
Apalachicola… and the rainiest day since 1996. The period of record
for precipitation data stretches from 1900 to present day.

The maximum rainfall for a calendar day at Apalachicola is 10.67
inches which fell on October 2 1996.

Jamie Jarosik-Canton, OH, Martha, Mary Wasson-Austin, TX

Great Meteorologists!

Great Meteorologist Ladies!

Martha, Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel, Jennifer Watson-Tupelo, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2011

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the
issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If
you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call
our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at:

http://www.NWS.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns11mixedcasel.htm

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT IR satellite shows CLOUD cover just to the south of the Big
Bend region. The latest KTBW RADAR shows some ISOLATED RAIN showers
to the south of our area. Our AIR mass contiues to steadily moisten
from south to north, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near
Cross City, to the upper 50s over our northern Georgia counties.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over WRN
CONUS and a LOW over Ontario with a TROUGH axis SWWD to n MEX.
During the next 24 HRS the trough will pivot EWD and deepen with the
axis centered over the wrn Gulf by 12z tues. This will help sweep a
cold FRONT SEWD across the local area.

AT LOWER LEVELS...

Big changes are in store for the local area beginning overnight.
Relatively disorganized low PRESSURE CENTER in the SE Gulf of
Mexico/Yucatan is forecast to slowly lift north overnight bringing
with it a gradual increase in clouds then rain chances.

Tuesday will be a very wet day AS the low slides into Apalachee Bay
pushing a large rain shield over much of the local area. Most
guidance indicates considerable strengthening of SLY h85 WIND fields
as low moves NEWD across n fl peninsula Tues AFTN then rapidly NWD
to ERN NC by late TUES NIGHT. The local focus will be across SE Big
Bend where latest RFC guidance shows 1-2 inch total RAINFALL with
minor flooding possible. Even though INSTABILITY looks weak there is
a 50kt low level JET coming into back of this system, so we can`t
rule out a strong STORM or two across the SE big bend and ern
Apalachee bay. A cold front will be aligned from LWR OH Valley THRU
Lwr Ms Vally early then strengthening swwd thru wrn gulf region. The
fly in the ointment is that some guidance shows the low turning more
ewd with time. This could place less of the local area (or near
zero) along and east side of the low and allow the cold front to
race across earlier.

Either way, by Tuesday night, the low will be absorbed by a
SHORTWAVE trough and quickly pulled northeast out of the area as the
above front clears the area from west to east. On Wednesday, strong
cold air ADVECTION will commence on the backside of the front
ushering much cooler temperatures and drier conditions for the local
area. On Wednesday night, the cold air will continue to funnel in
from the northwest.


These are just a few of the Scarecrows in the Dothan Area Botanical Gardens. They’ll be on display through the end of October. I’ll post some more later.

Scarecrows, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my Droid.

 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN TRPCL ATLC ALONG 11N27W TO 5N32W 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE...BUT DOES 
COINCIDE WITH A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 13N43W TO 6N48W 
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIDGE OF 
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO IS WELL-DEFINED IN MODEL STREAMLINE 
ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY THE WAVE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SHEARING CONVECTION TO THE NE. CURRENTLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS AS WELL AS NE OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 38W-44W. 


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS JUST SLIGHTLY OFF THE AFRICAN COAST 
ALONG 16N16W TO 14N19W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP ON THE W SIDE OF THE 
ERN-MOST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7N34W 8N45W CONTINUING ON THE OTHER 
SIDE OF THE WRN-MOST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N49W 7N60W. ALL DEEP 
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. 
ALTHOUGH...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE END 
OF THE ITCZ INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY WLY-NWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 30N88W TO 26N98W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT 
COVERS THE BASIN WHICH IS LIMITING MOST OF THE 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE AXIS WITH MORE SCATTERED 
ACTIVITY S OF BROWNSVILLE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 31N81W TO 25N86W. A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SE GULF IS LADEN 
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED N OF ITS TYPICAL POSITION. IT CURRENTLY 
EXTENDS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THIS AREA 
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA AND REACHING THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS. THIS LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY LIFT N AND COVER THE SRN GULF. 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AS HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NW GULF. THIS WILL INCREASE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE BASIN. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO SIT N OF ITS USUAL LOCATION. IT 
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH SRN MEXICO ACROSS NRN GUATEMALA AND 
BELIZE TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 17N87W CONTINUING ESE TO NEAR 
14N73W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THIS AREA 
FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W...AS WELL AS OVER LAND INCLUDING 
NRN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. MANY OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY 
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N 
BETWEEN 78W-82W...AS WELL AS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. 
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS ACROSS WRN 
CUBA. TO THE E...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 75W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 
A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 64W-75W. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS 
THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO DRY 
AIR ALOFT SINKING INTO THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
ALONG 66W. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN BRINGING CONTINUED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 
THAT AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE 
FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 66W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A 1007 MB LOW LIES UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. THE SWLY FLOW 
ALOFT IS SHEARING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE LOW 
CENTER FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE ALSO N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE NNE AT AROUND 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH WELL 
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 
33N40W TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N58W. THIS UPPER 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 
31N38W TO 29N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S ALONG 28N41W TO 21N47W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS ALSO SHEARING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AND A TROPICAL 
WAVE TOWARDS THE NE WHICH IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN A LARGE SWATH FROM NEAR 14N43W 
TO 32N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC CENTERED 
NEAR 10N29W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH 
NEAR 35N20W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE 
BASIN. 



Bring Us Some Canned Foods!, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Come by the Holiday Harvest Food Drive today at the southside Walmart!

Sent from my Droid.



Bring Us Some Canned Foods!, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Come by the Holiday Harvest Food Drive today at the southside Walmart!

Sent from my Droid.



Bring Us Some Canned Foods!, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Come by the Holiday Harvest Food Drive today at the southside Walmart!

Sent from my Droid.



Front Moving Through, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sunshine and Blue Skies for the weekend!

Sent from my Droid.

Just for fun, read my post from a few days ago about the difference between Tropical and Extratropical, then read the post below from AccuWeather…

By Grace Muller, AccuWeather.com

Trees down, power out and flooding in the streets. If you didn’t know any better, you’d think a tropical storm had whipped through Florida Sunday night. It didn’t. But no, wait, really?

Around the web, people couldn’t believe that the National Hurricane Center didn’t classify the wild winds and rain as a tropical storm.

“Dang, you’d think a tropical storm went through Florida with the crazy wind and rain we had,” Twitter user Emmaadiva tweeted. “There are trees down everywhere and new lakes.” Twitter user pondlizard agreed. “I don’t care what the weatherman says, that was a tropical storm that come across Florida.”

Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center (NHC), stuck to his position, saying the storm lacked defining characteristics of a tropical storm.

In comparison to true tropical storms, “this thing is more akin to these lows that go up and down the East Coast,” Feltgen said.

“It was never warm core,” the NHC spokesman said. “There was never organized convection around a low-level center at the surface. [The] strongest winds were well removed from the center. That is not a tropical cyclone.”

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist and Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski agrees with the National Hurricane Center’s call that the rainstorm that pounded Florida over the weekend wasn’t a tropical storm. “The storm had more characteristics of a non-tropical storm,” Kottlowski said.

Here’s why those characteristics are key:

1. The storm didn’t have a warm core

A “warm core” happens with the center of the storm is warmer than the air around it. Tropical storms thrive off of warm air. In a non-tropical storm, or low pressure system, the core of the storm is colder than the air around it.

2. The storm didn’t have rain around the center

A characteristic of an organized tropical storm is that rain or thunderstorms surround the warm core at the center of the storm. The radar never showed precipitation to the southeast or southwest of the storm’s center.

3. The storm spins in a circle or pattern

Kottlowski said the radar hasn’t rotary circulation. The storm is open on the south side.

For people caught surprised by the amount of damage caused by an unnamed storm, Feltgen said that a named storm is “not necessarily more dangerous” than an unnamed storm. The NHC names storms for “easy to recall, easy to recognize identification,” not to indicate strength. Feltgen said that the local NHC offices issued dozens of storm and tornado warnings during the storm.

Oct 11, 2011
By Joe D’ Aleo

Hansen: Failure To Communicate

It was simply a PR failure?!  NASA Warmist James Hansen: Climate skeptics are winning the battle — due to skeptics ‘employing communications professionals’

‘Part of the problem, Hansen said, was that the climate skeptic lobby employed communications professionals, whereas ‘scientists are just barely competent at communicating with the public and don’t have the wherewithal to do it.’

Unbelievable. Lets look at the facts:

(1) Warmists have dominated in all the popular journals by orchestrating control over the societies and editorial boards of the journals. They have the mainstream media in their camp. This is true of the magazines like Time, Newsweek, Scientific American, newspapers like the New York Times, WAPO, HUFFPO, LA Times, and on and on in this country and most of the intelligentsia rags in foreign countries.  Smaller papers like the Washington Times, New York Post, the Examiners, more obscure journals, talk radio and the internet are the only places where the truth can be found.

(2) Hansen and the modelers have failed in every prediction – temperatures stopped rising, sea level did not accelerate but slowed and now is failing. Winters are colder and snowier not warm and snowless. I could go on. Art Horn in his Energy Tribune story in “Icing the Hype” tells it well.

(3) They have no sense of history. See this excellent post by Steve Goddard where Steve takes on Hansen’s claims that the Texas Drought of 2011, the Russian heat of 2010 and the Europe heat wave of 2003 are proof he was right even though his movement failed in every other respect.

I did not mention the politicians and environmental and corporate support for the green agenda and the trillions of dollars spent pushing the warmsist position. Despite claims of big oil funding, most of the truth squad works pro-bono.

No, James, you haven’t failed because of poor communication. You have failed because your richly financed, pseudo-science is being seen for what it is – a failure.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2011

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the
issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If
you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call
our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at:

http://www.NWS.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns11mixedcasel.htm

.DISCUSSION...The slow moving SFC LOW which brought a solid dose of
RAINFALL to the region today is still meandering slowly westward
through the Florida Big Bend. While this system is lacking in pure
tropical characteristics, it does appear that most of our area WSR
88-Ds had a fairly significant low BIAS on their Z-R
(REFLECTIVITY/rainfall) relationships for much of the event. In
fact, many of our reliable surface PRECIPITATION reports indicated
total rainfall amounts AS much as 2 times higher than the RADAR STPs
in the HIGH impact areas. Interestingly, an STP Mosaic shows that
all of the surrounding Radars were all very close in their generally
low rainfall estimates, postulating that switch to a Tropical Z-R
Relationship might have benefited operations today. However, many
phone calls were made to the counties which received the heavier
rainfall amounts, and no flooding was reported (only a beneficial
wetting rainfall). Also, this evening`s RTP did little to shed any
additional light on the situation, as the heavier RAIN generally
fell in between our ASOS locations. Perhaps Tuesday morning`s RTP
(with the more dense COOP observations included) will be more
representative.

For the remainder of tonight, it appears that additional light to
moderate rainfall will continue across parts of the region due to
the very slow movement of the Sfc Low. As has been the case, most of
this rain should FALL to the north and east of the CENTER with a
very gradual westward shift. Will still have to keep an EYE off to
our southeast, as some banding of heavier rainfall is regenerating
over JAX`s CWA with a feed of Atlantic MOISTURE still being ingested
into this low. Made some slight POP Adjustments for both the 00 to
06 UTC and the 06 to 12 UTC intervals to account for the expected
precip. distribution.

Over the coastal waters, with the rapid collapse of the PRESSURE
GRADIENT this afternoon and early evening, was able to put a quick
end to the Small Craft ADVISORY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD mostly light rain or DRIZZLE will persist
across the region overnight into the daylight hours on Tuesday.
During that time, MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will prevail mainly due to FOG
with occasional LIFR conditions in the pre-DAWN hours. After 13Z
MVFR cigs/vsbys may persist at most locations until late morning or
early afternoon. Winds will be tricky due to a surface low over the
region, but we don`t expect them to be as gusty on Tuesday as we saw
today.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT


.BR TAE 1010 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 8PM EDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  74 /  68 /  0.10
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  74 /  68 /  0.14
40J  : PERRY                    :  76 /  70 /  0.13
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  78 /  68 /  0.89
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  83 /  71 /  1.70
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  73 /  67 /  0.19
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  78 /  68 /  0.54
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  80 /  70 /  0.89
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  73 /  68 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  70 /  64 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  70 /  70 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  73 /  66 /
:
.END


.BR TAE 1010 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM CDT
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
:
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  70 /  67 /  0.05
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  71 /  67 /  0.19
VPS  : EGLIN AFB ASOS           :  77 /  66 /  0.02
CEW  : CRESTVIEW ASOS           :  77 /  66 /  0.19
PNS  : PENSACOLA REGIONAL ASOS  :  79 /  66 /  0.05
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :              0.00
MOB  : MOBILE ASOS              :  84 /  63 /    T
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  68 /  65 /  0.59
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  68 /  65 /  0.21
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :              0.00

A messy situation developed off the Florida coast this weekend slam packed with pounding rain and impressive rainfall. It was spinning, and had rain bands, kicked up high surf, rip currents and beach erosion…and we’re still in Hurricane Season…so why wasn’t this considered a Tropical System?

* A tropical system must form in the Tropics. The area known as the tropics is defined as a region near the equator between 23° 26′ 16″ (or 23.4378°) N and the Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere at 23° 26′ 16″ (or 23.4378°) S. The system that affected Florida and now Georgia, South Carolina and the FL Panhandle had very strong winds….gusting to between 50-60 mph near Cape Canaveral, FL and up to 80 mph on a tower reported at 60 feet off the ground. These are very much strong enough to be considered Tropical Storm strength!

*Within the birth of a tropical system, they are born in areas that are considered “Barotropic”, meaning an area of temperatures that are all the same. Areas near the equator and close to the ITCZ (but not IN) or Intertropical Convergence Zone are considered Barotropic. Florida can be affected by fronts…which come off of land. These are areas considered “Baroclinic”. Baroclinic infers differing weather in terms of temperature, air pressure and moisture content. The Low that formed over Florida this weekend developed from an area of low pressure  that has also been influenced by an area of high pressure well to the north of it.

In the instance of the Florida Low, some of the wind strengthening was due to a Pressure Gradient Force. Essentially, winds around a Low move counterclockwise, whereas to the north where an area of high pressure was present, winds moved clockwise around it. You can picture this as creating a tunnel effect, with winds speeding up in between the area between the two differing areas pressure. This is why it was so breezy in the Wiregrass over the weekend.

*Next….a tropical system is considered a “Warm Core System” where the central pressure is lowest in the middle and at the surface and weakens the higher you go up in Altitude.  The sloppy Low pressure system moving across Florida into Southern Georgia has displacement. This means that the strongest winds are located near the area of lowest pressure, or at the center, which hasn’t been the case with this system.

*Tropical systems often have symmetry. The different quadrants often look very similar to each other…where as extra tropical system although rotating, often represent an elongated comma.

 

 

So in summary, this Extratropical Low has produced Tropical Storm rainfall totals between 4.5″-10″, wind speeds between 40-60 mph with 60+ mph gusts, tornado watches in the areas of greatest wind shear, and moderate beach erosion and rip currents…..but will not become a named system due to the differing characteristics listed above.

SO…contrary to the popular metaphor, If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and eats like a duck…..it’s NOT necessarily a duck :)

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These are photos courtesy of my friend Sara McCook. Taken in South West Colorado in a town called Ouray, you can see the San Juan Mountains in the horizon. Beautiful Scenery!

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Heads-up, meteor fans.

 As many as 750 meteors an hour are expected Saturday, as Earth travels through streams of dust and ice from Comet Giacobini-Zinner. The comet passes through the inner solar system every seven years.

   These Draconid meteors are expected to peak between 3 and 5 p.m. EDT. That’s terrible timing for U.S.observers. The sun will obscure everything. NASA space weatherman Bill Cooke says if theforecast is wrong and the timing is off by a few hours, the United States may be in for a treat.

   And while it will be night time in Europe,Africa and the Middle East, a nearly full moon is expected to dull the spectacle. The Draconids appear to come from the constellation Draco, the Dragon.

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