AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2011

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the
issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If
you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call
our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at:

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.DISCUSSION...The slow moving SFC LOW which brought a solid dose of
RAINFALL to the region today is still meandering slowly westward
through the Florida Big Bend. While this system is lacking in pure
tropical characteristics, it does appear that most of our area WSR
88-Ds had a fairly significant low BIAS on their Z-R
(REFLECTIVITY/rainfall) relationships for much of the event. In
fact, many of our reliable surface PRECIPITATION reports indicated
total rainfall amounts AS much as 2 times higher than the RADAR STPs
in the HIGH impact areas. Interestingly, an STP Mosaic shows that
all of the surrounding Radars were all very close in their generally
low rainfall estimates, postulating that switch to a Tropical Z-R
Relationship might have benefited operations today. However, many
phone calls were made to the counties which received the heavier
rainfall amounts, and no flooding was reported (only a beneficial
wetting rainfall). Also, this evening`s RTP did little to shed any
additional light on the situation, as the heavier RAIN generally
fell in between our ASOS locations. Perhaps Tuesday morning`s RTP
(with the more dense COOP observations included) will be more
representative.

For the remainder of tonight, it appears that additional light to
moderate rainfall will continue across parts of the region due to
the very slow movement of the Sfc Low. As has been the case, most of
this rain should FALL to the north and east of the CENTER with a
very gradual westward shift. Will still have to keep an EYE off to
our southeast, as some banding of heavier rainfall is regenerating
over JAX`s CWA with a feed of Atlantic MOISTURE still being ingested
into this low. Made some slight POP Adjustments for both the 00 to
06 UTC and the 06 to 12 UTC intervals to account for the expected
precip. distribution.

Over the coastal waters, with the rapid collapse of the PRESSURE
GRADIENT this afternoon and early evening, was able to put a quick
end to the Small Craft ADVISORY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD mostly light rain or DRIZZLE will persist
across the region overnight into the daylight hours on Tuesday.
During that time, MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will prevail mainly due to FOG
with occasional LIFR conditions in the pre-DAWN hours. After 13Z
MVFR cigs/vsbys may persist at most locations until late morning or
early afternoon. Winds will be tricky due to a surface low over the
region, but we don`t expect them to be as gusty on Tuesday as we saw
today.