AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 905 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2011 The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at: http://www.NWS.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns11mixedcasel.htm .DISCUSSION...The slow moving SFC LOW which brought a solid dose of RAINFALL to the region today is still meandering slowly westward through the Florida Big Bend. While this system is lacking in pure tropical characteristics, it does appear that most of our area WSR 88-Ds had a fairly significant low BIAS on their Z-R (REFLECTIVITY/rainfall) relationships for much of the event. In fact, many of our reliable surface PRECIPITATION reports indicated total rainfall amounts AS much as 2 times higher than the RADAR STPs in the HIGH impact areas. Interestingly, an STP Mosaic shows that all of the surrounding Radars were all very close in their generally low rainfall estimates, postulating that switch to a Tropical Z-R Relationship might have benefited operations today. However, many phone calls were made to the counties which received the heavier rainfall amounts, and no flooding was reported (only a beneficial wetting rainfall). Also, this evening`s RTP did little to shed any additional light on the situation, as the heavier RAIN generally fell in between our ASOS locations. Perhaps Tuesday morning`s RTP (with the more dense COOP observations included) will be more representative. For the remainder of tonight, it appears that additional light to moderate rainfall will continue across parts of the region due to the very slow movement of the Sfc Low. As has been the case, most of this rain should FALL to the north and east of the CENTER with a very gradual westward shift. Will still have to keep an EYE off to our southeast, as some banding of heavier rainfall is regenerating over JAX`s CWA with a feed of Atlantic MOISTURE still being ingested into this low. Made some slight POP Adjustments for both the 00 to 06 UTC and the 06 to 12 UTC intervals to account for the expected precip. distribution. Over the coastal waters, with the rapid collapse of the PRESSURE GRADIENT this afternoon and early evening, was able to put a quick end to the Small Craft ADVISORY. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD mostly light rain or DRIZZLE will persist across the region overnight into the daylight hours on Tuesday. During that time, MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will prevail mainly due to FOG with occasional LIFR conditions in the pre-DAWN hours. After 13Z MVFR cigs/vsbys may persist at most locations until late morning or early afternoon. Winds will be tricky due to a surface low over the region, but we don`t expect them to be as gusty on Tuesday as we saw today.