AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2011

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the
issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If
you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call
our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at:

http://www.NWS.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns11mixedcasel.htm

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT IR satellite shows CLOUD cover just to the south of the Big
Bend region. The latest KTBW RADAR shows some ISOLATED RAIN showers
to the south of our area. Our AIR mass contiues to steadily moisten
from south to north, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near
Cross City, to the upper 50s over our northern Georgia counties.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over WRN
CONUS and a LOW over Ontario with a TROUGH axis SWWD to n MEX.
During the next 24 HRS the trough will pivot EWD and deepen with the
axis centered over the wrn Gulf by 12z tues. This will help sweep a
cold FRONT SEWD across the local area.

AT LOWER LEVELS...

Big changes are in store for the local area beginning overnight.
Relatively disorganized low PRESSURE CENTER in the SE Gulf of
Mexico/Yucatan is forecast to slowly lift north overnight bringing
with it a gradual increase in clouds then rain chances.

Tuesday will be a very wet day AS the low slides into Apalachee Bay
pushing a large rain shield over much of the local area. Most
guidance indicates considerable strengthening of SLY h85 WIND fields
as low moves NEWD across n fl peninsula Tues AFTN then rapidly NWD
to ERN NC by late TUES NIGHT. The local focus will be across SE Big
Bend where latest RFC guidance shows 1-2 inch total RAINFALL with
minor flooding possible. Even though INSTABILITY looks weak there is
a 50kt low level JET coming into back of this system, so we can`t
rule out a strong STORM or two across the SE big bend and ern
Apalachee bay. A cold front will be aligned from LWR OH Valley THRU
Lwr Ms Vally early then strengthening swwd thru wrn gulf region. The
fly in the ointment is that some guidance shows the low turning more
ewd with time. This could place less of the local area (or near
zero) along and east side of the low and allow the cold front to
race across earlier.

Either way, by Tuesday night, the low will be absorbed by a
SHORTWAVE trough and quickly pulled northeast out of the area as the
above front clears the area from west to east. On Wednesday, strong
cold air ADVECTION will commence on the backside of the front
ushering much cooler temperatures and drier conditions for the local
area. On Wednesday night, the cold air will continue to funnel in
from the northwest.