AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 838 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2011 The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will be testing the issuance of Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) in mixed case text. If you wish to provide feedback regarding this test, please call our office at (850) 942-8833. More information can be found at: http://www.NWS.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns11mixedcasel.htm .SYNOPSIS... CURRENT IR satellite shows CLOUD cover just to the south of the Big Bend region. The latest KTBW RADAR shows some ISOLATED RAIN showers to the south of our area. Our AIR mass contiues to steadily moisten from south to north, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near Cross City, to the upper 50s over our northern Georgia counties. AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over WRN CONUS and a LOW over Ontario with a TROUGH axis SWWD to n MEX. During the next 24 HRS the trough will pivot EWD and deepen with the axis centered over the wrn Gulf by 12z tues. This will help sweep a cold FRONT SEWD across the local area. AT LOWER LEVELS... Big changes are in store for the local area beginning overnight. Relatively disorganized low PRESSURE CENTER in the SE Gulf of Mexico/Yucatan is forecast to slowly lift north overnight bringing with it a gradual increase in clouds then rain chances. Tuesday will be a very wet day AS the low slides into Apalachee Bay pushing a large rain shield over much of the local area. Most guidance indicates considerable strengthening of SLY h85 WIND fields as low moves NEWD across n fl peninsula Tues AFTN then rapidly NWD to ERN NC by late TUES NIGHT. The local focus will be across SE Big Bend where latest RFC guidance shows 1-2 inch total RAINFALL with minor flooding possible. Even though INSTABILITY looks weak there is a 50kt low level JET coming into back of this system, so we can`t rule out a strong STORM or two across the SE big bend and ern Apalachee bay. A cold front will be aligned from LWR OH Valley THRU Lwr Ms Vally early then strengthening swwd thru wrn gulf region. The fly in the ointment is that some guidance shows the low turning more ewd with time. This could place less of the local area (or near zero) along and east side of the low and allow the cold front to race across earlier. Either way, by Tuesday night, the low will be absorbed by a SHORTWAVE trough and quickly pulled northeast out of the area as the above front clears the area from west to east. On Wednesday, strong cold air ADVECTION will commence on the backside of the front ushering much cooler temperatures and drier conditions for the local area. On Wednesday night, the cold air will continue to funnel in from the northwest.