TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS N...AND MONSOONAL FLOW TO ITS S. THIS 
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 
80W-86W. CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A 
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE 
WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A 
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 15N17W. IT CONTINUES SW TO 6N26W. A SMALL SECTION OF 
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 6N26W TO NEAR 4N38W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA 
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N90W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE 
NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR SKIES. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND BE REPLACED BY SURFACE RIDGING 
WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
TO BECOME ZONAL WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT STILL 
LINGERS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 18N84W 
16N85W. MOST CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-79W. FURTHER 
E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER N VENEZUELA...N 
COLOMBIA...AND THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 64W-80W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 
17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER 
IN THE CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1025 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N43W. IN THE TROPICS...A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO AN EMBEDDED 1006 MB LOW AT 
9N56W TO 7N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-15N BETWEEN 46W-59W. FURTHER E...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 21N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 17N40W 
10N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N59W 
MOVING SW. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 
55W-64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONTINUES SHOWERS. ALSO 
EXPECT THE TROPICAL LOW NEAR 9N56W TO MOVE NW TOWARDS TRINIDAD 
AND DEEPEN WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.