AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE
410 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR CHARTS HAVE BASE OF MEDIUM AMPLIFIED H25 TROUGH OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONUS...WITH 140 KNOTS JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. FORECAST AREA NOW RESIDES
UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...WITH LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LAST OF THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR CUMULUS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE
RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS REPORTING MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH...AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 28
TO 34 DEGREES ENTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT...PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CENTER OF LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY DAYBREAK. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST 2 METER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT ONLY DROP OFF TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 MPH
INLAND AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF
TO BETWEEN 9 AND 14 MPH. THIS MIXING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
REACHING FREEZING...OR ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 34
DEGREES NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST
ZONES AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CENTER OF SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SOUTHWEST ACROSS GEORGIA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL RESUME AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM 61 TO 66 DEGREES.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE BEACHES.

SATURDAY...
WEAK BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
GEORGIA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN INTACT. A LIGHT
EAST WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
JUST ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 70 TO 76 DEGREES.