AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM (Rest of Today)...Satellite trends indicate
LOW level CLOUD cover slowly advancing into the area from the
Atlantic Coast. Another cloud deck exists offshore over the northern
Gulf and is advancing north along the Florida panhandle coast. These
two cloud features are LIKELY to combine AS the low level FLOW
switches to a more southerly direction overnight. Therefore expect
that most areas in the southern portion of the CWA will be partly
CLOUDY by late evening, with some being mostly cloudy. Otherwise,
look for WIND speed to subside into the evening hours as we
transition into a cool NIGHT in the MID 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...The RIDGE of HIGH
PRESSURE, which brought the brief shot of cool AIR to the region
last night with a FEW of the colder inland locations dropping into
the mid to upper 30s, is centered near the NC/VA border as a 1034 MB
system as of early this afternoon. This ridge, which is currently
responsible for the rather tight pressure GRADIENT over our coastal
waters, is PROGGED very well by the global models to gradually
weaken as it settles slowly southward to a position nearly right
over our CWA by later on Sunday or Monday. Combine this weakening
and moderating SFC Ridge with a building Upper Level Ridge from the
Gulf of Mexico, and the STAGE should be SET for a steady warming
trend across the region over the weekend. High TEMPS should recover
into the mid 70s over many areas on Saturday, with upper 70s and
even some lower 80s likely by Sunday Afternoon. Although it may not
be a mostly SUNNY weekend for all areas over the entire weekend,
with low level cloudiness increasing both over the FL peninsula and
northern Gulf Waters today, we are still confident in a FAIR weather
FCST. Although we will currently plan on leaving any sensible WX (in
the for of showers) over the coastal waters, FWIW, the NAM derived
MET POPS have come in between 20 and 40 percent for Saturday and
some of the HI-Res WRF Members do show some precip over western
portions of the CWA tomorrow, believe these are the outlier
solutions for this package.


.LONG TERM (Monday through next Friday)...
The period will start out warm and dry with lows in the 50s and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s through Tuesday. RAIN chances
return to the northwest zones beginning Tuesday afternoon as a
southern stream IMPULSE approaches from the west. There are the
usual model differences evident that are typical at these time
ranges. However, there is a general consensus that a cold FRONT will
push across the area in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame.
While not in complete agreement, the 00Z versions of the GFS and
Euro have come into a little better agreement on this. For this
cycle, we did increment PoPs upward just a bit with highest PoPs on
Wednesday morning. Temps will drop off behind the front, but only
back to seasonal levels. The next frontal system looks to hold off
until next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...With the Sfc Ridge to the Northeast only gradually
weakening as it settles slowly to the south, Small Craft ADVISORY
Conditions out of the east may linger over the coastal waters into
Saturday morning over the eastern legs and Saturday Afternoon to the
west. Thereafter, more moderate winds and SEAS are expected to
return to the marine area, but there will be the possibility for
NOCTURNAL surges which may bring brief periods of cautionary
conditions to parts of the waters on Saturday Night.

&&

.AVIATION...An influx of low level MOISTURE from the east is
spreading a low cloud CEILING into the Florida panhandle this
afternoon. This is likely to generate VFR ceilings over eastern
terminals between 3,000 ad 3,500 FT AGL" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">AGL this afternoon. There also
exists an extensive area of cloud cover over the northern Gulf of
Mexico that will spread northward tonight as the low level wind flow
switches to a more southerly wind direction. Whether this cloud
cover decreases to MVFR is the primary forecast problem for this TAF
issuance. Based on CURRENT trends and NARRE data, it appears the
deck is most likely to stay VFR. Will go with this line of thinking
for all but KECP where proximity to the ocean may increase chances
of MVFR ceilings. Also, low level wind SHEAR issues are not
anticipated to be a problem tomorrow morning as they were today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Low-level moisture will be in the increase beginning
tonight. This combined with low DISPERSION and low wind speeds will
act to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. The next CHANCE for
increased fire weather concerns will be the middle of next week when
a cold front approached the area.