AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM (Rest of Today)...Satellite trends indicate LOW level CLOUD cover slowly advancing into the area from the Atlantic Coast. Another cloud deck exists offshore over the northern Gulf and is advancing north along the Florida panhandle coast. These two cloud features are LIKELY to combine AS the low level FLOW switches to a more southerly direction overnight. Therefore expect that most areas in the southern portion of the CWA will be partly CLOUDY by late evening, with some being mostly cloudy. Otherwise, look for WIND speed to subside into the evening hours as we transition into a cool NIGHT in the MID 40s. && .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...The RIDGE of HIGH PRESSURE, which brought the brief shot of cool AIR to the region last night with a FEW of the colder inland locations dropping into the mid to upper 30s, is centered near the NC/VA border as a 1034 MB system as of early this afternoon. This ridge, which is currently responsible for the rather tight pressure GRADIENT over our coastal waters, is PROGGED very well by the global models to gradually weaken as it settles slowly southward to a position nearly right over our CWA by later on Sunday or Monday. Combine this weakening and moderating SFC Ridge with a building Upper Level Ridge from the Gulf of Mexico, and the STAGE should be SET for a steady warming trend across the region over the weekend. High TEMPS should recover into the mid 70s over many areas on Saturday, with upper 70s and even some lower 80s likely by Sunday Afternoon. Although it may not be a mostly SUNNY weekend for all areas over the entire weekend, with low level cloudiness increasing both over the FL peninsula and northern Gulf Waters today, we are still confident in a FAIR weather FCST. Although we will currently plan on leaving any sensible WX (in the for of showers) over the coastal waters, FWIW, the NAM derived MET POPS have come in between 20 and 40 percent for Saturday and some of the HI-Res WRF Members do show some precip over western portions of the CWA tomorrow, believe these are the outlier solutions for this package. .LONG TERM (Monday through next Friday)... The period will start out warm and dry with lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s through Tuesday. RAIN chances return to the northwest zones beginning Tuesday afternoon as a southern stream IMPULSE approaches from the west. There are the usual model differences evident that are typical at these time ranges. However, there is a general consensus that a cold FRONT will push across the area in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. While not in complete agreement, the 00Z versions of the GFS and Euro have come into a little better agreement on this. For this cycle, we did increment PoPs upward just a bit with highest PoPs on Wednesday morning. Temps will drop off behind the front, but only back to seasonal levels. The next frontal system looks to hold off until next weekend. && .MARINE...With the Sfc Ridge to the Northeast only gradually weakening as it settles slowly to the south, Small Craft ADVISORY Conditions out of the east may linger over the coastal waters into Saturday morning over the eastern legs and Saturday Afternoon to the west. Thereafter, more moderate winds and SEAS are expected to return to the marine area, but there will be the possibility for NOCTURNAL surges which may bring brief periods of cautionary conditions to parts of the waters on Saturday Night. && .AVIATION...An influx of low level MOISTURE from the east is spreading a low cloud CEILING into the Florida panhandle this afternoon. This is likely to generate VFR ceilings over eastern terminals between 3,000 ad 3,500 FT AGL" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">AGL this afternoon. There also exists an extensive area of cloud cover over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will spread northward tonight as the low level wind flow switches to a more southerly wind direction. Whether this cloud cover decreases to MVFR is the primary forecast problem for this TAF issuance. Based on CURRENT trends and NARRE data, it appears the deck is most likely to stay VFR. Will go with this line of thinking for all but KECP where proximity to the ocean may increase chances of MVFR ceilings. Also, low level wind SHEAR issues are not anticipated to be a problem tomorrow morning as they were today. && .FIRE WEATHER...Low-level moisture will be in the increase beginning tonight. This combined with low DISPERSION and low wind speeds will act to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. The next CHANCE for increased fire weather concerns will be the middle of next week when a cold front approached the area.