AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 205 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2011 .NEAR TERM (through tonight)... We may see some breaks from time to time but for he most part we are expecting the persistent LOW level cloudiness to remain with us at least through daybreak Tuesday. POPS have been reduced to silent 10% overnight AS the upper level disturbance and deep layer MOISTURE has now moved east of local region. The moisture that remains in place in the from of STRATUS is shallow and only a FEW light sprinkles or DRIZZLE will be possible. Patchy FOG is also possible overnight due to all the residual moisture from the WIDESPREAD rains of the past 24 hours. Winds will be from the east to northeast 5 to 10 mph so widespread dense fog is not expected. MIN TEMPS will be similar to this morning ranging from MID 40s northern zones to lower 50s along the coast and southeast Big Bend. .SHORT TERM (Tuesday through Wednesday NIGHT)... The upper low off the CA coast will swing inland over the northern Baja just south of San Diego Tuesday morning and then move eastward across the Desert SW through Wednesday before beginning to SHEAR out into the Southern Plains. in response, the DOWNSTREAM RIDGE will build eastward over the southeastern states. The surface HIGH over the Mid Atlantic states will move little through Wednesday morning and then begin to slip southward in response to an approaching cold FRONT. The rising heights will bring a warming trend to the area, especially once the clouds vacate tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be 4-5 degrees above NORMAL on Tuesday and 8-9 degrees above normal on Wednesday. Morning lows will be mild in the mid to upper 40s north and upper 40s to lower 50s south. .LONG TERM (Thursday through next Monday)... No major changes were made to the long term forecast tonight as compared to the forecast that was prepared last night. A ridge that will be expanding over the east coast at the beginning of the period should place us squarely in an area of above normal temperatures. The positive low-level TEMPERATURE and upper-level HEIGHT anomalies associated with this expanding ridge are expected to persist, more or less, through the period. Therefore, we maintained the above normal temperatures through next weekend. RAIN chances were once again kept very low, below 15% except in the far north on Friday and into early Saturday when a weakening cold front will be stalling out somewhere nearby. The associated upper level low will be located well northeast of the area, and thus there is not expected to be much support and deep layer forcing for widespread PRECIPITATION over our forecast area. && .MARINE (Tonight through Saturday)... High PRESSURE north of the area will maintain a tight enough pressure GRADIENT across the waters that the exercise caution winds observed today and will continue for the most part through Wednesday night. By Thursday, the high will have settled southward to a position off the Carolina coast and winds will subside to 10 knots or less and veer to the southeast. These conditions will then persist into the weekend. && .AVIATION (through 18Z Tuesday)... Low level moisture continues to be trapped under a strong INVERSION currently around 1500 feet. This may elevate somewhat this afternoon but we still believe that cigs will remain at MVFR levels for the remainder of the day and lower once again to IFR levels later this evening and overnight. There may also be periods of LIFR cigs/vsbys in the pre-DAWN hours, especially at VLD. A return to VFR conditions at all TAF sites is expected shortly after SUNRISE Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative HUMIDITY values are forecast to be above critical levels throughout the remainder of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY...A few corridors of heavy rain overnight prompted the issuance of several FLOOD Advisories. The Tallahassee area was directly impacted by one area of heavy rain, with widespread 3 to 5 inch totals across various parts of the Big Bend (heaviest totals generally south and west of Tallahassee). The airport ASOS (KTLH) picked up 3.57 inches, and this is the highest 2-day RAINFALL total measured at Tallahassee since January 20-21, 2010. Flooding issues around the city were mainly related to some minor urban flooding and some shallow water over a few roads. Another corridor of heavy rain developed from north central Taylor County into central Madison County, FL. A 5.25 measurement in Madison County was the highest received for the event. The KTLH RADAR estimated 4 to 7.5 inches of rain in a narrow band in this area, and radar rainfall estimates were pretty reliable overnight based on observed rainfall. A quick survey of area river gages shows that much of this rainfall was absorbed by the ground with minimal rises observed on area rivers.