AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2011

...Slight CHANCE for Severe Weather Late Tonight into Tuesday
Morning Still Expected in areas of the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend...including parts of Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South
Central Georgia 20 to 30 miles to the North of I-10...

.SYNOPSIS...Thus far, the 2 most dominant synoptic scale features on
the MAP today are the cold 1030mb SFC RIDGE holding in over the
Lower Tennessee Valley, and our next expected weather maker
currently packaged in a small, but potent Upper Level SHORTWAVE over
the Upper Texas Panhandle. Thus far, there is just a large area of
mainly weak isentropic lift between these 2 systems, which is
creating a sizable area of mostly light to moderate RAIN with a FEW
embedded thunderstorms over eastern TX, much of LA, MS, and parts of
western AL. This PRECIPITATION will be gradually heading our way
tonight and possibly with a more formidable line of showers and
thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe closer to the
coast), AS Sfc Based CYCLOGENESIS begins to take place out ahead of
the vigorous shortwave.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday NIGHT)...As mentioned above,
it appears that the only sensible weather which will occur during
the short term period will be tonight into Tuesday, before much
cooler and drier AIR builds into the region behind the fast moving
cold FRONT from Tuesday night onward. HIGH Temperatures could be
relegated to the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday, with some
indications of a possible light FREEZE over parts of the interior on
Wednesday Night. Back to the potential severe weather event, it
appears that very little has changed in both areal thinking (mainly
in areas just to the north of I-10 into SE AL and extreme SW GA, then
extending to all points to the south and west), and that the overall
potential will remain slight. However, one component that may be
changing slightly is the timing of the threat, which overall appears
to be quickening just a bit with each successive model run.
Therefore, we now believe it is becoming more LIKELY that the window
of opportunity for any severe weather will likely have shifted to
the east of our CWA during the afternoon., as winds shift quickly to
the NW behind the Cold Front.


.LONG TERM (Thursday through next Monday)...A weak short wave will
move across the local region on Thursday. However, theĀ  ATMOSPHERE
will be too dry to support much in the way of clouds let alone
RAINFALL. Another lobe of energy will pass overhead Friday night
into Saturday and again with little or no impact. The next and most
impressive in the series of short waves is forecast to arrive during
the Sunday to Sunday night time frame. Currently this feature shows
enough upper support and available MOISTURE to bring a LOW end
chance of POPS to start the new YEAR. A cold front is also forecast
to push through the Tri-state region and usher in a much drier and
cooler airmass to start next week. TEMPS will be below seasonal
levels Thursday and Friday with freezing or near freezing temps
Thursday morning. MAX temps will moderate from the lower 60s
Thursday to the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday through the weekend
and then dropping back down into the lower to MID 60s on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...Although wave heights will certainly be lower over
Apalachee Bay, as they always are due to it`s shallow BATHYMETRY,
there appears to be little doubt that SCA level winds will at least
exist here for a portion of the time in association with this
developing Low PRESSURE System. Therefore, will upgrade this section
of the Coastal Waters to a Small Craft ADVISORY this afternoon,
which should allow us to trim the CWF back to two segments. This
will also be a small and fast moving Low Pressure system so boating
conditions should improve behind the front Tuesday Night and
especially by Wednesday Morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Cigs ranging from VFR to MVFR are expected to persist
for the remainder of the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching
cold front. Conditions will deteriorate later tonight as the front
moves into the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
overspread the region from west to east. Easterly winds around 10
knots are expected for the rest of the afternoon, then VEERING to a
more southerly direction and increasing some tonight ahead of the
front. Low level WIND SHEAR is expected to become a concern later
tonight as a strong southerly low level JET develops ahead of the
cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Although a fairly strong cold front will move
through late tonight and into Tuesday, long durations of low
relative HUMIDITY values are currently not expected behind it. We
may briefly approach 35 percent across portions of northwest Florida
on Wednesday afternoon, but the lack of any strong winds, high
dispersions, or high ERCs at that time is expected to prevent red
flag conditions.