AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 130 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2011 ...Slight CHANCE for Severe Weather Late Tonight into Tuesday Morning Still Expected in areas of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend...including parts of Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South Central Georgia 20 to 30 miles to the North of I-10... .SYNOPSIS...Thus far, the 2 most dominant synoptic scale features on the MAP today are the cold 1030mb SFC RIDGE holding in over the Lower Tennessee Valley, and our next expected weather maker currently packaged in a small, but potent Upper Level SHORTWAVE over the Upper Texas Panhandle. Thus far, there is just a large area of mainly weak isentropic lift between these 2 systems, which is creating a sizable area of mostly light to moderate RAIN with a FEW embedded thunderstorms over eastern TX, much of LA, MS, and parts of western AL. This PRECIPITATION will be gradually heading our way tonight and possibly with a more formidable line of showers and thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe closer to the coast), AS Sfc Based CYCLOGENESIS begins to take place out ahead of the vigorous shortwave. && .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday NIGHT)...As mentioned above, it appears that the only sensible weather which will occur during the short term period will be tonight into Tuesday, before much cooler and drier AIR builds into the region behind the fast moving cold FRONT from Tuesday night onward. HIGH Temperatures could be relegated to the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday, with some indications of a possible light FREEZE over parts of the interior on Wednesday Night. Back to the potential severe weather event, it appears that very little has changed in both areal thinking (mainly in areas just to the north of I-10 into SE AL and extreme SW GA, then extending to all points to the south and west), and that the overall potential will remain slight. However, one component that may be changing slightly is the timing of the threat, which overall appears to be quickening just a bit with each successive model run. Therefore, we now believe it is becoming more LIKELY that the window of opportunity for any severe weather will likely have shifted to the east of our CWA during the afternoon., as winds shift quickly to the NW behind the Cold Front. .LONG TERM (Thursday through next Monday)...A weak short wave will move across the local region on Thursday. However, the ATMOSPHERE will be too dry to support much in the way of clouds let alone RAINFALL. Another lobe of energy will pass overhead Friday night into Saturday and again with little or no impact. The next and most impressive in the series of short waves is forecast to arrive during the Sunday to Sunday night time frame. Currently this feature shows enough upper support and available MOISTURE to bring a LOW end chance of POPS to start the new YEAR. A cold front is also forecast to push through the Tri-state region and usher in a much drier and cooler airmass to start next week. TEMPS will be below seasonal levels Thursday and Friday with freezing or near freezing temps Thursday morning. MAX temps will moderate from the lower 60s Thursday to the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday through the weekend and then dropping back down into the lower to MID 60s on Monday. && .MARINE...Although wave heights will certainly be lower over Apalachee Bay, as they always are due to it`s shallow BATHYMETRY, there appears to be little doubt that SCA level winds will at least exist here for a portion of the time in association with this developing Low PRESSURE System. Therefore, will upgrade this section of the Coastal Waters to a Small Craft ADVISORY this afternoon, which should allow us to trim the CWF back to two segments. This will also be a small and fast moving Low Pressure system so boating conditions should improve behind the front Tuesday Night and especially by Wednesday Morning. && .AVIATION...Cigs ranging from VFR to MVFR are expected to persist for the remainder of the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Conditions will deteriorate later tonight as the front moves into the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to overspread the region from west to east. Easterly winds around 10 knots are expected for the rest of the afternoon, then VEERING to a more southerly direction and increasing some tonight ahead of the front. Low level WIND SHEAR is expected to become a concern later tonight as a strong southerly low level JET develops ahead of the cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER...Although a fairly strong cold front will move through late tonight and into Tuesday, long durations of low relative HUMIDITY values are currently not expected behind it. We may briefly approach 35 percent across portions of northwest Florida on Wednesday afternoon, but the lack of any strong winds, high dispersions, or high ERCs at that time is expected to prevent red flag conditions.