AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 842 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2011 .DISCUSSION...00 UTC surface analysis shows a cold FRONT moving off the Florida East Coast in association with a 993 MB surface LOW PRESSURE system across Central New York. Cooler AIR continues to arrive behind the front, but it isn`t appreciably cold with dewpoints back nearer the HIGH pressure area over Texas only in the low to MID 30s. So while a cool down is expected here locally, extremely cold temperatures are not. Upper air data from 00 UTC and vapor imagery shows a high AMPLITUDE TROUGH moving through the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. The last IMPULSE to affect our region is at the base of the trough swinging through Middle Georgia. The local KTAE SOUNDING shows the drier and cooler airmass that has arrived. The precipitable water value is down to 0.39 inches and the entire depth of the sounding is colder than 24 hours ago. Remaining forecast concern will be the TEMPERATURE forecast. Lingering STRATUS behind the front will slow the temperature drop across Southern Georgia, but clearing skies are arriving elsewhere across the region. The pressure GRADIENT is light, but still some light winds are expected overnight so the CURRENT forecast MIN temperatures in the upper 30s certainly looks good and could be just a tad on the low side. However, given UPSTREAM readings already in the low to mid 40s will assume temperatures locally will respond similarly once the lingering CLOUD cover gets out of here after 06z. Thus, plan on making no changes to the current forecast.