AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2012

SYNOPSIS...18 UTC surface analysis shows a 998 MB occluded surface
LOW across Central Kentucky. The cold FRONT that moved through our
region today was moving across Southeastern Georgia and Northeastern
Florida. A somewhat drier and cooler airmass had moved in across the
region this afternoon, however, a much more substantive, albeit dry,
cold front is surging southeast across the Plains and will be moving
through the region tomorrow resulting in another shot of cold
temperatures for the weekend.

Vapor imagery and upper AIR data show the upper low across the
Southeastern U.S. starting to pivot northeastward into the Carolinas
AS a deeper TROF amplifies and surges southeastward across the HIGH
Plains. This is the next step in the overall evolution of the
pattern across the CONUS toward an amplifying TROUGH in the Eastern
CONUS and a building RIDGE across toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT).
Post frontal cloudiness across the region will slowly thin and
dissipate overnight leaving a period of mostly clear skies overnight
with cool temperatures in the low to MID 40s. Some of the model
guidance indicates some patchy FOG potential, most LIKELY due to the
moist ground conditions and relatively light winds overnight. Even
with patchy fog possible, do not anticipate any significant issues,
especially when compared with the foggy conditions experienced
earlier this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
The airmass behind this morning`s cold front does not have much in
the way of cool air behind it, but the cold front projected to pass
through late Thursday afternoon and evening will bring much colder
and drier air to our region for Friday and Saturday, with a light
FREEZE possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Although the deep
layer MOISTURE with this front does not look particularly
impressive, the NAM, NAM MOS, and CONVECTION allowing NWP guidance
forecast a solid (but thin) line of RAIN with the front. The GFS MOS
continues its trend of POP of 10 percent. As a compromise we are
forecasting a 30 percent CHANCE of light showers (QPF .05 inches or
less). Ahead of the cold front Thursday, highs will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the upper
60s north to mid 70s south. Highs will only be in the 50s Friday and
Saturday. Strong winds aloft will likely mix down to the surface as
strong WIND gusts (25-35 KT) Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
This ridge is then expected to essentially camp out over the region
for the remainder of the weekend into the beginning of next week,
keeping TEMPS about 5-10 degrees below climatological values until
highs get back to NORMAL by Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday and
Wednesday (as this Ridge slides off to our northeast), it appears
that a rather diffuse low PRESSURE system will enter our region from
the west, bringing with it the next chance of rain along with above
normal temps. At this time, there appears very little in the way of
dynamical or thermodynamical support for this system, so any strong
to severe storms do not appear to be in the cards at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings have lifted to VFR or SCATTERED out across the
region. Expect this to be the case through much of the overnight
hours. The potential exists for an MVFR VISIBILITY restriction at
VLD before SUNRISE. As the cold front approaches on Thursday,
SCT-BKN clouds are expected around 3500ft, though some guidance
indicates the potential for a brief MVFR CEILING before the frontal
passage. After the front moves through, BREEZY northwest winds up to
25 knots can be expected during the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will continue at ADVISORY levels into the early
evening hours before briefly diminishing. However, SEAS are expected
to remain near advisory levels into Thursday afternoon. Winds will
increase one again on Thursday afternoon and evening in the WAKE of
a strong dry cold front. High pressure will build back near the
marine area on Friday allowing for winds and seas to diminish into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The breezy conditions and good mixing Thursday and
Friday will lead to unusually high DISPERSION values each afternoon.
The combination of low relative HUMIDITY and high dispersions values
could pose a risk for Red Flag conditions Friday, and possibly
Saturday.