AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 237 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2012 SYNOPSIS...18 UTC surface analysis shows a 998 MB occluded surface LOW across Central Kentucky. The cold FRONT that moved through our region today was moving across Southeastern Georgia and Northeastern Florida. A somewhat drier and cooler airmass had moved in across the region this afternoon, however, a much more substantive, albeit dry, cold front is surging southeast across the Plains and will be moving through the region tomorrow resulting in another shot of cold temperatures for the weekend. Vapor imagery and upper AIR data show the upper low across the Southeastern U.S. starting to pivot northeastward into the Carolinas AS a deeper TROF amplifies and surges southeastward across the HIGH Plains. This is the next step in the overall evolution of the pattern across the CONUS toward an amplifying TROUGH in the Eastern CONUS and a building RIDGE across toward the Pacific Northwest. && .NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT). Post frontal cloudiness across the region will slowly thin and dissipate overnight leaving a period of mostly clear skies overnight with cool temperatures in the low to MID 40s. Some of the model guidance indicates some patchy FOG potential, most LIKELY due to the moist ground conditions and relatively light winds overnight. Even with patchy fog possible, do not anticipate any significant issues, especially when compared with the foggy conditions experienced earlier this week. && .SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY). The airmass behind this morning`s cold front does not have much in the way of cool air behind it, but the cold front projected to pass through late Thursday afternoon and evening will bring much colder and drier air to our region for Friday and Saturday, with a light FREEZE possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Although the deep layer MOISTURE with this front does not look particularly impressive, the NAM, NAM MOS, and CONVECTION allowing NWP guidance forecast a solid (but thin) line of RAIN with the front. The GFS MOS continues its trend of POP of 10 percent. As a compromise we are forecasting a 30 percent CHANCE of light showers (QPF .05 inches or less). Ahead of the cold front Thursday, highs will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Highs will only be in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Strong winds aloft will likely mix down to the surface as strong WIND gusts (25-35 KT) Thursday. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY). This ridge is then expected to essentially camp out over the region for the remainder of the weekend into the beginning of next week, keeping TEMPS about 5-10 degrees below climatological values until highs get back to NORMAL by Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday (as this Ridge slides off to our northeast), it appears that a rather diffuse low PRESSURE system will enter our region from the west, bringing with it the next chance of rain along with above normal temps. At this time, there appears very little in the way of dynamical or thermodynamical support for this system, so any strong to severe storms do not appear to be in the cards at this time. && .AVIATION...Ceilings have lifted to VFR or SCATTERED out across the region. Expect this to be the case through much of the overnight hours. The potential exists for an MVFR VISIBILITY restriction at VLD before SUNRISE. As the cold front approaches on Thursday, SCT-BKN clouds are expected around 3500ft, though some guidance indicates the potential for a brief MVFR CEILING before the frontal passage. After the front moves through, BREEZY northwest winds up to 25 knots can be expected during the daytime hours. && .MARINE...Winds will continue at ADVISORY levels into the early evening hours before briefly diminishing. However, SEAS are expected to remain near advisory levels into Thursday afternoon. Winds will increase one again on Thursday afternoon and evening in the WAKE of a strong dry cold front. High pressure will build back near the marine area on Friday allowing for winds and seas to diminish into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...The breezy conditions and good mixing Thursday and Friday will lead to unusually high DISPERSION values each afternoon. The combination of low relative HUMIDITY and high dispersions values could pose a risk for Red Flag conditions Friday, and possibly Saturday.