AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2012 NEAR TERM (Tonight)... The back edge of the CIRRUS was rapidly pushing eastward across our western zones at 02z and will be a non-factor on our minimum TEMPS. The surface HIGH centered along the western Gulf coast this evening will move little overnight. Thus, despite a very dry airmass in place along with clearing skies, ideal radiational cooling conditions will not occur. However, we are still expecting unseasonably cold temperatures with inland areas dropping into the MID to upper 20s. The only question continues to be whether some locations experience a hard FREEZE (25 degrees or less for 2 or more hours). Temperatures at 00z were already a FEW degrees below MOS guidance where we are forecasting lows in the 25-26 degree RANGE. This would encompass a large portion of the eastern Big bend. Will be updated GRIDS and zones shortly along with issuing a Hard Freeze WARNING for Jefferson, Madison, Inland Taylor, Lafayette and Inland Dixie counties from 08z until 14z Saturday. && SHORT TERM (Saturday through Sunday NIGHT)...The MEAN eastern trough will be maintained through Saturday night as a pair of weak shortwaves move through the base. While neither of these shortwaves will push colder air in the region, they will serve to slow the moderation of the airmass currently in place. After a cold start tomorrow morning, high temperatures are forecast to REACH the upper 50s by mid-afternoon. Another freeze will be possible Sunday night as the surface high remains in a favorable position for radiational cooling. Forecast temps are 4 to 5 degrees warmer than tonight with lows from 30 to 35 away from the coast. Heights will begin to rise on Sunday as the upper trough lifts northeast and an upper ridge begins to build in from the west. This will allow temperatures to continue moderating with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Low temperatures should remain above freezing Sunday night. .LONG TERM (Monday through next Friday)...The large scale longwave pattern commences fairly amplified. This is highlighted in the NRN stream by weak troughing across WRN states and extreme Wrn Atlc and ridging in between. SRN stream with weak troughing PAC Coast to TX and ridging EWD into extreme Wrn Atlc. At surface, high along NC/VA coast with ridge axis SWWD into Apalachee Bay. Low in Canada N of MN with cold front Swwd into Colorado. This place local area in very dry pattern. During the rest of the period, Wrn upper trough digs Ewd while Srn stream upper ridge moves offshore with Srn flow becoming nearly zonal and stays so before weak troughing approaches shifting flow to SWLY on Fri. Second upper trough over Gulf digs rapidly ESE Tuesday and Tuesday night. At surface, Above troughs push surface low moves to Srn Great Lakes kicking high into Atlc. Assocd cold front with limited INSTABILITY dragged rapidly SEWD with deep SLY flow setup from Gulf. GFS and ECMWF similar in timing and intensity of front pushed THRU CWA Tues night exiting Wed morn ERN most zones bringing SCT shwrs and a few tstms Tues AFTN into early Wed. In its wake, strong high builds SEWD from Srn Plains Ewd spreading a reinforcing shot of cold and very dry air across local region Wed into Fri. By end of period high pushed offshore with next low moving NEWD into TN valley dragging trailing cold front to Wrn Gulf. In response, onshore flow with increasing chances of RAIN commences again across local area by end of Fri. Forecast will show Sct POPS Tues aftn into Wed. Otherwise NIL pops thru period. Ahead of the front MIN temps will be around 10 degrees above CLIMO Mon and Tues nights dropping to at or below climo Wed and Thurs nights and may reach freezing in coldest locales. MAX temps commence at least 10 degrees above climo on Tues dropping to at or below climo on Wed then inching up to a few degrees above climo by Fri. Average inland min/max temps are 39/62.