AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2012
...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Continues for Thursday Evening
through MID-morning Friday...
UPDATE...

Regarding severe STORM chances Thursday and Thursday night, not
much has changed with the latest 18z guidance. It is a bit
concerning that the 18z NAM forecasts SBCAPE values AS HIGH as
500-1000 j/kg during the late afternoon and evening hours
coincident with increasing LOW and deep layer SHEAR values over
parts of southeast Alabama and the eastern panhandle. We expect a
SQUALL line to enter the western zones during the late afternoon
to early evening hours with damaging straight line winds the main
threat, although an ISOLATED TORNADO cannot be ruled out given the
increasing low level shear. The 18z local hi-res ARW run does show
some strong to severe cells moving onshore in the vicinity of
Panama City during the evening hours, and this bears close
watching. The highest threat of severe weather for the local area
is located across southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and
southwest Georgia, but the threat could extend as far east as
Tallahassee and Albany as well during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Based on PERSISTENCE from last night and MOS guidance, IFR or lower
conditions are expected at all airports with fog developing during
the late night hours. All terminals with the exception of DHN are
expected to see ceilings below airport minimums starting between
06z and 09z. Fog will diminish and ceilings will lift after
SUNRISE. VFR conditions are expected after the fog and ceilings
lift with winds out of the south from 10 to 15 KTS gusting to 25
kts. Some CONVECTION may start to approach KECP and KDHN near the
end of the TAF period, but most of it should occur beyond this TAF
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds will begin to increase ahead of a strong cold FRONT
tonight. This front will bring increasing winds, SEAS, and
thunderstorms to the coastal waters Thursday afternoon through
early Friday. Some of these storms could be severe. Winds will
shift to the west Friday behind the cold front with exercise
caution or low end ADVISORY conditions possible until winds and
seas subside later in the day on Friday. A return to WINDY
conditions is expected again on Sunday.