AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 914 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2012 ...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Continues for Thursday Evening through MID-morning Friday... UPDATE... Regarding severe STORM chances Thursday and Thursday night, not much has changed with the latest 18z guidance. It is a bit concerning that the 18z NAM forecasts SBCAPE values AS HIGH as 500-1000 j/kg during the late afternoon and evening hours coincident with increasing LOW and deep layer SHEAR values over parts of southeast Alabama and the eastern panhandle. We expect a SQUALL line to enter the western zones during the late afternoon to early evening hours with damaging straight line winds the main threat, although an ISOLATED TORNADO cannot be ruled out given the increasing low level shear. The 18z local hi-res ARW run does show some strong to severe cells moving onshore in the vicinity of Panama City during the evening hours, and this bears close watching. The highest threat of severe weather for the local area is located across southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and southwest Georgia, but the threat could extend as far east as Tallahassee and Albany as well during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... Based on PERSISTENCE from last night and MOS guidance, IFR or lower conditions are expected at all airports with fog developing during the late night hours. All terminals with the exception of DHN are expected to see ceilings below airport minimums starting between 06z and 09z. Fog will diminish and ceilings will lift after SUNRISE. VFR conditions are expected after the fog and ceilings lift with winds out of the south from 10 to 15 KTS gusting to 25 kts. Some CONVECTION may start to approach KECP and KDHN near the end of the TAF period, but most of it should occur beyond this TAF forecast period. && .MARINE... Southeast winds will begin to increase ahead of a strong cold FRONT tonight. This front will bring increasing winds, SEAS, and thunderstorms to the coastal waters Thursday afternoon through early Friday. Some of these storms could be severe. Winds will shift to the west Friday behind the cold front with exercise caution or low end ADVISORY conditions possible until winds and seas subside later in the day on Friday. A return to WINDY conditions is expected again on Sunday.