Monthly Archive

Cloudy and muggy early… With more sunshine than we’ve had over the last few days, we will be close to the record high for Dothan set in 1976… 80 degrees!  With more unseasonably warm days ahead… Here’s the NWS Discussion…

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...updated for dense FOG ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
602 AM EST Wed Feb 29 2012

WIDESPREAD dense fog has developed across portions of the inland big
bend and over most of s/CNTRL ga. AS a result a dense fog advisory
has been issued for these areas until 9 am est for these areas.
expect widespread vsbys one-half mile or below. the fog will slowly
then more rapidly lift after 9 am est.
During the next 24 HRS, a large trough expands from the extreme ERN
Pacific to the West Coast. In response, the deep-layer low over the
NE will lift and weaken across Nrn MS Valley then into the Great
Lakes region tonight with 90kt JET at base crossing OH Valley. In
response, Gulf RIDGE will expand NWD today with rising heights.
South of these troughs/low systems, very fast WSW nearly zonal FLOW
will moves across much of Cntrl and SRN tier states west of Gulf. As
Wrn upper trough swings in wrn states on Thurs, broad and weak
ridging moves across SE region. Trough advances into the Plains on
Fri with strong SHORTWAVE developing out ahead with weak and
weakening ridging over Nrn Gulf.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Surface HIGH PRESSURE is centered over over the MID Atlantic coast
and is ridging southward to FL and then WWD along the Gulf
Coast. Plenty of low level MOISTURE is in place across the region
with DEW points in the upper 50s east to lower 60s west. Looking
UPSTREAM, a low was noted across Srn MN assocd with above Plains
trough. Cold FRONT extended from low SWWD into TX.

During the next 24 hrs, as upper low lifts NEWD, surface REFLECTION
lifts newd and eventually occludes over Srn ONT/New England on
Thurs. Trailing front will cross OH/TN Valleys later today oriented
from Appalachians SWWD THRU Nrn AL/GA by tonight where it becomes
quasi-STNRY. High along East coast shifts into Wrn Atlc with ridge
nudged SWD and across FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, the fast zonal flow
along the Nrn Gulf Coast and an upper ridge over the Gulf will
prevent the front from making much more significant southward
progress. This should keep the best RAIN chances north of the forecast area on Wednesday. Remains of the cold front will edge SWD on Thursday, which may help to spark slightly better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Nrn counties. As above upper trough advances EWD on Fri, wrn tail of front initially lifts nwd as warm front to Nrn AL.
Then, as next and deeper surface low tracks from Srn Plains to Mid
MS Valley then to Great Lakes Fri thru Fri NIGHT, the cold front
dragged back SEWD to just N of CWFA by nighttime. In response, Gulf
ridge retreat ewd. Shortwave will push front across local area SAT
into Sat night for our next weather maker (see long term
discussion).

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)...
It will be unseasonably warm thru the period with MAX TEMPS about 10
degrees above NORMAL and approaching near record levels. With a weak
surface GRADIENT, some sea breeze development is expected each day
which may yield a sprinkle or two and will account for noticeably
cooler coastal temps.

TODAY...lingering areas to widespread dense fog for a FEW hours,
mainly ern third of area. then after fog breaks, temps will soar.
Highs low 70s coast to around 80 inland. No POPS.

record high for Feb 29...Tallahassee (1948) and Tift, 84, Cross
City 82, Headland AL and Albany 80 and Apalachicola and Marianna 76
degrees.

TONIGHT...20% pops SE AL/SW GA  Zero elsewhere. Lows from upper 50s
SE Big Bend, low-mid 60s. fog developing late.

THURSDAY...20% pops SE AL/SW GA  Zero elsewhere. Highs low 70s coast
to around 80 inland. Lows 58-62.

FRIDAY....20% pops SE AL/SW GA  Zero elsewhere. Highs low 70s coast
to low 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
The period begins with a rapidly occluding STORM system across the
Great Lakes with a cold front gradually progressing into the
Southeast. The 29/00z model guidance is in relatively good agreement
with the timing of this system into the Southeast. Both the GFS and
Euro indicate that the primary surface low and attendant upper level
energy will be rapidly shifting northeastward up the Saint Lawrence
River Valley and into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday night. As a
result, it doesn`t appear as though the cold front will come roaring
through Saturday evening into Sunday morning. What little difference
there is between the GFS and Euro is with regard to whether the
frontal boundary develops a wave of low pressure along it while
nearing the area. The Euro solution is slightly more robust with
this feature and accordingly has much better rain chances as the
cold front comes through. One way or the other it does look like
most areas will have a good shot at RAINFALL on Saturday-Saturday
night so will increase pops from the inherited values.

Severe potential with this system is more uncertain. While SHEAR and
surface-based INSTABILITY look to be sufficient for organized severe
weather, the lack of significant HEIGHT falls implies that deep
layer forcing may be lacking with this system, leaving most of the
CONVECTION in a narrow band along the surface frontal boundary. Even
with the meager height falls, there still looks to be enough
potential for severe weather to warrant watching this system closely
over the next couple of days as it nears the area.

Beyond Sunday as the cold front comes through, high pressure will
build across the area at the surface and then gradually aloft.
Primary difference in this period of the forecast is the 29/00z GFS
indicating a very strong surface ridge building across the Mid
Atlantic whereas the Euro keeps the surface high nearly overhead
into Tuesday. Continuity favors the Euro solution here. Temperatures
will initially trend below normal behind the cold front from Sunday
evening into Tuesday with a moderating trend developing by Wednesday
ahead of the next storm system.

Just so you’ll know…

Areas of fog this morning… Cloudy and warmer today… High 72… A shower possible… Here’s the NWS discussion:

 
SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
A warm FRONT will lift from the local waters and across the
Tri-state region later this afternoon and early evening. ISOLATED to
SCATTERED showers are expected to develop in the isentropic ascent
with the best CHANCE (30%) across our SE AL zones and northern tier
GA zones. AS the front passes, winds will veer to the southeast with
afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 70s to around 80 for
our Florida zones and lower to MID 70s north of the Florida border.
Winds will swing around to the south on Wednesday and southwest
Thursday as a cold front approaches. Wednesday should be dry with
the front still well off to the northwest. This front then pivots
and stretches out east to west stalling just north of our CWA as the
upper FLOW becomes nearly zonal. There is a slight chance for
showers on Thursday mainly for our AL and GA zones. MAX temperatures
for both Wednesday and Thursday will be around 80 degrees with upper
70s along the coast. MIN TEMPS will RANGE from the upper 50s to the
mid 60s and we may see significant FOG development for both nights.

The threat for severe storms has left our area, pushing East and Southeast, but we’re still expecting some rain overnight, along with some strong winds and much cooler temperatures.

Saturday morning lows will drop into the upper 30s in many areas with afternoon highs only in the upper 50s!

The biggest threat for severe storms is just to the north of Ozark today. However, we cannot completely count out the potential for damaging winds and hail as a fast-moving cold front moves through our area later.

Be aware of quickly changing weather close to you, especially after midday.

Here’s the ;atest from the National Weather Service…

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241156Z - 241330Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND
   POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC.  PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS
   60-70 PERCENT.
   
   IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
   ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
   SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE
   1045Z.  COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING
   OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW
   ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING.  THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW
   VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE
   MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG.  DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT
   FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH
   VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM
   THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM
   MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC. 
   
   STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND
   80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
   DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/24/2012
  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2012
SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH/CUTOFF low over Baja CA and and the northeast portion  of the
country, with a similarly low-amplitude RIDGE over PAC NW and
Rockies. This Baja low is expected to MEANDER slowly EWD over
northern Mexico through Friday. Another SHORTWAVE over PAC nw will
amplify AS it continues to dig east-southeast, reaching the Ohio
River Valley by early Friday.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
A broad diffuse HIGH PRESSURE ridge extended north of the Bahamas
through the southern Florida peninsula. Generally lower pressure was
found to the northwest OF CWA. In between, warm FRONT near the
coast. This combination has SET up broad southerly low-level FLOW
over much of the Southeast.

On Thurs, an H5 Trough lingers over N FL with WSW flow and 40kt JET
over area. warm front should lift new during days enhanced by jet.
This should lead to BREEZY to WINDY conditions approaching WIND
ADVISORY criteria, particularly over the northern third of our
forecast area.

As the above upper level shortwave digs and amplifies, surface
CYCLOGENESIS should commence from the Dakotas tonight into the
eastern Great Lakes by Friday. An accompanying cold front trailing
to the southwest will also SURGE southeastward across much of the
central and eastern US, reaching the eastern Gulf Coast on Friday
and will LIKELY be our next STORM system. Until that cold front
passage occurs, there will be periodic chances of RAIN and storms
with breezy south to southwest winds.

There is better model consensus today on the timing of the cold
front, reaching roughly the I-65 corridor just northwest of our area
shortly after SUNRISE, and pushing into the southeast part of our
area (near Dixie County) by 00z Saturday. This places the arrival of
the front squarely in the DIURNAL timeframe, and that`s when the
highest (approx 60%) POPS were concentrated. as the upper level
trough and cold front move SEWD and phase with lingering H5 Trough
over local area. The main concern then is related to potential
severe weather which remains a possibility and will dealt with in
more details on next AFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM [REST OF TONIGHT THRU EARLY THURSDAY]...
Analysis during wed AFTN/early EVE was due to upper shortwave
moving ewd across NB most Apalachee Bay. At surface weak warm front
from SRN la ESE thru the warm gulf CURRENT to our west and then
across and shelf waters of Gulf of MEX. This combination provided
enough lift for ample rain and SCT thunderstorms especially over SE
Big Bend and Apalachee Bay. However, activity waned last FEW hours
as initial shortwave moved ewd reaching E coast by 9PM with some
drying in its WAKE. Also, earlier large scale warm and MOISTURE
ADVECTION shifted NWD. However, AT 9PM another albeit weaker
shortwave was moving ENE across Apalachicola Bay generated showers
across se Big Bend and adjacent waters. Have updated ZFP to lower
pops thru 06z with MAX 60% over water down to less than 20 PCT NRN
tier counties. (ALTHO some light DRIZZLE a good bet over CWA).
satellite PIX implies a few more impulses may move in from waters
later tonight so cant drop pops too much. For 06z-12z, 0-40% NW-SE
GRADIENT with ISOLD tstms across mainly coastal counties and
waters.

Aside from rain chances overnight, tonight will be the first of a
couple of MUGGY nights out ahead of the main system expected to
arrive on Friday. Strengthening surface winds and CLOUD cover and
passing impulses will likely limit dense FOG development across the
region, however, the potential for low STRATUS will be high. Best
CHANCE of fog will be near the coast and e/se of a line from
Tallahassee thru Valdosta and Cross City and adjusted GRIDS
accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION..(thru 00Z Thursday)
Ongoing moist AIR advection from the gulf will keep ceilings in the
IFR/LIFR RANGE for most of the area overnight. Expecting fog to
impact all terminals starting at 3z near the coast and near 5z
further inland, with significantly reduced VIS between 1 to 2SM at
TLH,VLD,and ECP. 40kt winds near 2000ft will keep wind SHEAR wording
in the TAFs from 3z to 14z. Winds will pick up to around 20 KTS
gusting to 30kts region wide tomorrow afternoon and MVFR ceilings
will linger into the afternoon as well.

&&

.MARINE...MID eve buoys showing 10-15kts. winds expected to increase
from w-e overnight with se winds 15-20kt likely with SEAS building
to 4-5 feet offshore. thus will keep SCEC headlines.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2012
SYNOPSIS...
The long wave pattern is continuing to progress. The RIDGE that was
over the SE US yesterday has moved east over the MID-Atlantic.
Currently over our region is a SHORTWAVE TROUGH that brought some
light RAIN this morning and some CLOUDY skies. Besides a FEW light
showers this morning, today has been a CALM day in terms of weather.
IR and visible imagery show mid-upper level clouds. RADAR is QUIET
with a few leftover showers on the outskirts of the forecast area.
The trough should continue to progress eastward, but more slowly
than yesterday`s ridge AS it will begin lifting and our region
will begin to see more zonal FLOW until a second LOW approaches
Thursday NIGHT. This low could render some weather on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
Heavy CLOUD cover and light rain from this morning have made us
lower today`s forecast HIGH today to the mid to upper 60s. Skies are
expected to clear for a little bit with a short break in the cloud
cover. With light southerly winds overnight and high MOISTURE from
RAINFALL and ADVECTION by said winds, FOG is expected across most of
the area starting early tomorrow morning and continuing into the
afternoon. Model forecast soundings and statistical guidance
indicates that the fog could be dense in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Friday Afternoon]...
Plenty of weather concerns in the short term period, as nearly 48
hours of low-level warm advection and associated various rain
chances will be followed by the arrival of a strong cold FRONT on
Friday. We edited the GRIDS today out through 00z Saturday to ensure
a more smooth transition of weather elements into the previous
long-term forecast from last night.

First, model preferences. Differences have re-emerged from what was
a fairly good consensus amongst the 21.00z model suite. This seems
to be largely tied to two features: (1) the upper-level CUTOFF low
that is centered near 28N/117W or just west of Baja California, and
(2) an elongated PV ANOMALY / axis of SHEAR VORTICITY north of a
strong JET streak in the Gulf of Alaska. The general theme amongst
the models is that the shear vorticity will consolidate and dig
southeast into the Plains by Thursday as the jet streak develops
eastward along the NE rim of the Eastern Pacific ridge. This is
expected to lead to low-level CYCLOGENESIS in the Great Lakes or
Ohio River Valley on Thursday, and will aid in driving a deeper cold
AIR mass southeast behind a surging cold front. The new 12z GFS is
much faster with this cold front, pushing it through our area by 18z
Friday, whereas the global model consensus (and prior 00z GFS) was
much slower. In collaboration with surrounding WFOs, TAFB, and HPC,
we have decided to go with the slower cold front timing, with most
weather elements a blend of 21.00z GFS, 21.12z NAM, and 21.00z
ECMWF. There are also major differences in how the models handle the
Baja low, with potential implications for the long term period
(weekend and beyond). That will be sorted out on the overnight shift
by the long term forecaster.

For tomorrow, there is good agreement on a quick round of rain with
a fairly sharp N-S POP/QPF GRADIENT, with highest values south. This
seems to be forced largely in the low levels as isentropic ascent
kicks in as a response to a subtle shortwave trough ejects east from
the Rockies to the east coast in fast, nearly-zonal flow. Arguing
for greater rain coverage is the added benefit of being in the right
entrance region of a 120-130kt upper level jet streak. High-res
model guidance is in excellent agreement that showers will affect
mostly our marine and Florida zones, entering the western half of
our area mainly 14-18z, and then moving quickly east and diminishing
by early Wednesday evening. The various 4km WRF models all indicate
some small amounts of CAPE with some weak-moderate UPDRAFT
velocities out over the Gulf, so THUNDER was added over the water.

The earlier prospects of SCATTERED thunderstorms on Thursday seem to
have dwindled on the latest model guidance. As we are LIKELY to warm
into the upper 70s and potentially near 80 degrees, we should see at
least a weak sea-breeze CIRCULATION develop by the afternoon. 12z
model guidance does seem to support this notion with some light QPF
(0.01-0.05") amounts hugging the coastline during the day. Forecast
soundings don`t indicate much INSTABILITY, with LCL-300mb lapse
rates almost at moist ADIABATIC levels. The SREF model MEAN SBCAPE
is around 300 j/kg with a few members up around 600-800 j/kg. There
will also be quite a bit of WIND shear, with 0-6km bulk shear around
60 knots. Therefore, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms is
non-zero. One potential flaw is strong WAA in the 900-800mb layer
just atop the boundary layer, particularly in the afternoon. This
could limit updraft strength and keep CONVECTION mostly as shallow
showers. Given the amount of shear, there are a wide RANGE of
convective possibilities on Thursday, so stay tuned!

It looks like we will see a lull for most of Thursday Night as
overnight storms would tend to fire to the northwest of us along the
cold front in the Mid-South. With the strong WAA regime and likely
increase in low cloud cover, it should be a warm night with lows in
the mid 60s. For Friday, severe weather is a possibility and we are
currently outlooked in the Day 4-8 OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK with severe probabilities
at or above 30%. More details on this in the coming days, but the
main points with this forecast update are: (1) the timing of the
greatest severe weather threat appears to have shifted into the
daytime on Friday, (2) a DIURNAL timing of the storms would probably
favor a bit more instability, (3) regardless of eventual timing the
ATMOSPHERE will be highly sheared. While there are differences in
the models regarding timing and some MESOSCALE details, they all
agree that there will be an arc of thunderstorms along the front.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Tuesday]...
On a more positive note, the cold front and associated
thunderstorms will be exiting quickly to our east Friday evening
setting up a dry...although cooler weekend period. A more zonal
upper level pattern over-TOP surface high PRESSURE building in
from the west supports near zero rain chances Saturday and Sunday.
The airmass arriving is quite chilly through. The late February
sun is getting stronger, so still anticipate highs into the 60s,
however a chilly night looks to be in store for Saturday night. As
of now have gone with WIDESPREAD mid/upper 30s away from the
immediate coast, with normally colder spots down near freezing by
SUNRISE. This will also need to be monitored closely, as the
eventual position of the surface high Saturday night will
determine if a more widespread light FREEZE will be possible.
Seasonal conditions with rebounding TEMPS then expected for the
early portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION [through 18z Wednesday]...
12Z model guidance is showing lower CIGs and VISBYs for the BR Wed
morning and conditions deteriorating earlier for ABY and DHN than
forecast at the 12Z TAF issuance. BR setup time remains similar to
the last issuance, beginning around 04Z, deteriorating near 09Z, and
improving at 16Z, earlier at ECP and VLD. Model agreement is quite
strong on low VSBY, but weak on CIGs, especially after 14Z. Expect
VFR conditions until around 04Z Wed when conditions FALL to MVFR.
At 09 conditions will fall further to IFR, then return to MVFR
around 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine forecast until at least Wednesday. A
NOCTURNAL SURGE of southerly winds could REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH SCEC headline
levels Wednesday Night, subsiding briefly on Thursday, before
ramping up ahead of a cold front Thursday Night into Friday. We
went entirely with a SEAS forecast based on the SWAN model, as the
WW3 (based on the 12z GFS) seems to be: (1) too fast with frontal
timing, and (2) too weak with surface winds. The winds were a
blend of the ECMWF and NAM models which bring the front through
the coastal waters on Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front this
gives SSW winds around 25 KT with seas building to 7-9 feet. The
combination of the rapid ramp-up in wind-waves, plus longer period
SWELL originating from the 15-20kt SSW flow Thursday to Thursday
Night is expected to build surf heights to ADVISORY levels on
Friday (6ft or so), with dangerous rips likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High relative HUMIDITY values keep us well above criteria level
across the region through the end of the work week. Relative
humidity is forecast to decrease to around 30 percent on Saturday
across the area for several hours, so Florida may reach red flag
criteria, but it`s too early to see ERC values, or to be certain of
what the winds will do.

Pensacola  1.82″
Andalusia  1.94″
Albany  2.13″
Pine Level  2.17″
Crestview  2.51″
Troy  2.74″
Wicksburg  2.75″
Dothan  3.25″
Geneva  3.70″
Marianna  4.75″
Bonifay  5.00″
Chipley  5.90″

Biggest total we could find, from a trained spotter, was in Walton County, near Eucheeanna, Fl. (SE of De Funiak Springs), 7 inches!

Overview:

A potent upper level disturbance will move across Southern Texas tonight and lead to the development of a strong low pressure area along theCentral Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure will move northeastward acrossAlabamaand into theSouthern Appalachiansby Sunday morning. Warm and moist air will be drawn northward and inland along theGulfCoastahead of this low pressure area. This will create an environment favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning.

Impacts:

Our computer models have come into a little better agreement today regarding the timing and progression of this storm system. However, there still is some uncertainty with respect to how much instability will be present across the region. While this complicates the forecast slightly, our confidence is increasing that there will be severe weather occurring on Saturday into Sunday morning across a good portion of the region.

The latest computer models indicate that a few strong to severe storms are now possible late Saturday afternoon as a warm frontal boundary lifts north through the region. This portion of the event still remains the most uncertain as the necessary instability may be lacking. Later Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, a squall line is expected to surge eastward across the region. Sufficient instability is anticipated to be available Saturday evening and into the overnight hours, especially across Southeast Alabama,Southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle making another round of severe weather likely. Lesser instability is anticipated to be present across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central Georgia, resulting in lower chances of severe weather late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

* As the warm front lifts northward on early Saturday afternoon isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

* As the squall line moves through the area Saturday evening and into Sunday morning, more widespread damaging winds are anticipated. Isolated tornadoes will still be possible.

Based on the latest data, the Storm Prediction Center has kept the entire region within a Slight Risk for severe weather for Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated severe weather probabilities with this event are still relatively high in western portions of our region at 30 percent with lower values of 15 percent further to the east along the Interstate 75 corridor and into the Florida Big Bend. Of course, there still remains some uncertainty and this outlook may change as the event approaches on Saturday.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be heaviest acrossSoutheast Alabamaand into the Florida Panhandle where 2 to 3 inch totals are anticipated. Lesser amounts are expected further southeast with areas in the Florida Big Bend seeing around 1 inch of rainfall from this system.

We’re expecting heavy rain and numerous intense storms to move through our area 2 times on Saturday. The first time will begin around midday and continue through the early part of Saturday evening. The second surge looks to be after 10pm and continuing into early morning Sunday.

The Slight (30%) chance for Severe Storms in our area means we’re concerned about the likelihood of multiple Tornadoes and Damaging winds.

Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued.

Make plans now to keep up with quickly changing weather conditions near you this weekend.

Here’s the latest information from the NWS Severe Storm Center in Oklahoma…

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
   SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
   PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
   LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
   THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
   APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
   WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
   WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
   NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
   VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
   UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
   AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
   THE PERIOD.
   
   ...GULF COASTAL STATES...
   
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
   THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
   PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
   OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
   POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
   PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
   300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
   ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
   
   STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
   WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
   THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
   OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
   SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
   PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
   HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT
   WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
   STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.  HOWEVER...A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
   PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS
   IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY
   PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED
   SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.
   
   ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
   CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
   THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. 
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
   MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
   CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
   STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
   90 KTS.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
   THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
   THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
   STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
   DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
   EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
   STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
   
   IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
   THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
   AHEAD OF THE LINE.
   
   SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
   SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
   REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.