AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 705 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a large TROUGH from WRN Great Lakes SWWD to Desert SW with large upper CUTOFF low over SW KS driving a WINTER STORM. East of this trough, ridging dominates SE region. A rather dense MID level 9-11K and CIRRUS canopy emanating from the trough has overspread this region moderating temperatures. Through the weekend, the low is forecast to weaken AS it gets left behind by the faster northern stream FLOW across the Great Lakes. A series of upper impulses will move EWD but remain well N of CWA. By 12z Sun it should located near the KS/MO border. The end result of this is a rather suppressed mid and upper level pattern across the Southeast. AT LOWER LEVELS... Analysis shows strong HIGH PRESSURE in place across NC with ridging down across FL, and a potent low over across the Eastern most Colorado with cold FRONT SSW to low over SW OK and a warm front SEWD into NRN Gulf. In between, SLY flow was advecting a good amount of Gulf MOISTURE NEWD across the Central Gulf States with a more modified airmass in place across our region. Overnight, high pressure will move ESE into the Wrn ATLC allowing the weak warm front to lift north As a result, local winds shift to a more sly component allowing more low level moisture to lift northward ahead of the next storm system and produce some showers and possibly some FOG. However, with high ridging SWD local winds will remain above NORMAL. Warm front will lift further NWD on Saturday with rain shutting off from S-N. High will shift further SEWD ahead of next cold front with a better CHANCE of fog SAT NIGHT. Above low will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH SRN MO Sat morn then to KY/TN in the EVE to further weaken over mid-ATLC states on Sun. Assocd cold front will weaken and extend from Srn MO SWWD to TX Sat morn then, front will move into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Expect cloudy skis, high HUMIDITY and mild temps ahead of front in warm sector. Absent upper level support, WIDESPREAD SHOWER activity is not anticipated. && .SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY). Expect lows mid 50s inland to around 60 at coast. Showers weakening this eve as they run into drier AIR s of warm front boundary so lowered POPS, especially east of Apalachicola River. Sharp 50-20% NW-SE rain POP GRADIENT decreasing to 40-0% after 06z. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the evening despite periodic showers between KDHN and KABY. After midnight, a trend toward higher areal coverage of MVFR cigs/VIS will begin and have all terminals with a period of MVFR restrictions during the later night hours into the first FEW daylight hours of Saturday. It is not out of the question to see a few brief periods of IFR, however confidence is not high enough in these restrictions to include with this TAF package. CIGS/VIS will lift back above VFR levels by midday Saturday and through the afternoon hours. Have added a prob30 grouping for a "pop up" shower or storm during the afternoon hours around KDHN and KABY. && .MARINE...Winds and SEAS are expected to remain elevated tonight as strong high pressure remains in place north of the region across the Mid Atlantic States. As the RIDGE moves eastward into the Atlantic, winds and seas will diminish by Saturday Night with relatively low winds and seas remaining in place throughout the remainder of the weekend. A cold front will move across the waters Sunday Night resulting in a slight increase in offshore winds.