AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2012

SHORT TERM (Monday through Wednesday night)...Lingering frontal
boundary will washout over the Big Bend on Monday underneath
southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain very warm across
the area, especially south of the front where highs will approach
80 degrees once again. Enough lingering moisture may allow for
ISOLATED convection to develop over the eastern Big Bend during
the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected on Monday.
Primary change for Tuesday will be a lack of POPS over the Big
Bend. Otherwise... TEMPERATURE will remain well above NORMAL for
early February.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through next Sunday)...There are still
significant disagreements between the GFS and Euro on a possible
wave of low pressure in the Gulf for Thursday. The GFS remains the
most aggressive model and shows a cool and rainy day on Thursday.
The Euro has a much more suppressed wave and keeps the area dry.
The Canadian is somewhere in between. The GFS MOS PoPs were
undercut some for Thursday given that it appears to be a wet
outlier. The highest probabilities of RAIN with this system are
over the coastal waters and the southeast Florida big bend. The
models then become out of phase by the end of the period with the
00z GFS showing a deep trough and a blast of cold AIR by the end
of the weekend. The 00z Euro shows weak upper level ridging around
this time with no cold air. The GFS ENSEMBLES show a lot of spread
in the pattern by the end of the period, so temperatures were kept
at moderate levels and above MOS guidance given the GFS`s rather
extreme solution compared to other guidance.


&&

.AVIATION (Through 18z Monday)...AS DIURNAL mixing continues and
the boundary layer deepens, ceilings should continue to jump back
up into the VFR RANGE over most of the area during the afternoon.
MVFR possible around some iso-sctd showers and storms. VCTS added
at TLH and VLD prior to 22z, with some SHRA mentioned at VLD too
as it looks like rain would be most likely at that terminal. Low
clouds may settle back in overnight, and we could see a return to
MVFR through MID-morning Monday at most of the terminals.


&&

.MARINE...Expect to see a brief increase in winds to near 15
knots over the western waters tonight, in the WAKE of a cold
front. No headline are anticipated at this time. Offshore winds
(at or below 15 knots) will continue through the end of the week,
with high pressure situated west of the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH will remain above 35% both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, and thus fire weather concerns are limited.
Slightly drier air works into the area for Wednesday, but winds
are expected to be light.