AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 235 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2012 SHORT TERM (Monday through Wednesday night)...Lingering frontal boundary will washout over the Big Bend on Monday underneath southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain very warm across the area, especially south of the front where highs will approach 80 degrees once again. Enough lingering moisture may allow for ISOLATED convection to develop over the eastern Big Bend during the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected on Monday. Primary change for Tuesday will be a lack of POPS over the Big Bend. Otherwise... TEMPERATURE will remain well above NORMAL for early February. .LONG TERM (Thursday through next Sunday)...There are still significant disagreements between the GFS and Euro on a possible wave of low pressure in the Gulf for Thursday. The GFS remains the most aggressive model and shows a cool and rainy day on Thursday. The Euro has a much more suppressed wave and keeps the area dry. The Canadian is somewhere in between. The GFS MOS PoPs were undercut some for Thursday given that it appears to be a wet outlier. The highest probabilities of RAIN with this system are over the coastal waters and the southeast Florida big bend. The models then become out of phase by the end of the period with the 00z GFS showing a deep trough and a blast of cold AIR by the end of the weekend. The 00z Euro shows weak upper level ridging around this time with no cold air. The GFS ENSEMBLES show a lot of spread in the pattern by the end of the period, so temperatures were kept at moderate levels and above MOS guidance given the GFS`s rather extreme solution compared to other guidance. && .AVIATION (Through 18z Monday)...AS DIURNAL mixing continues and the boundary layer deepens, ceilings should continue to jump back up into the VFR RANGE over most of the area during the afternoon. MVFR possible around some iso-sctd showers and storms. VCTS added at TLH and VLD prior to 22z, with some SHRA mentioned at VLD too as it looks like rain would be most likely at that terminal. Low clouds may settle back in overnight, and we could see a return to MVFR through MID-morning Monday at most of the terminals. && .MARINE...Expect to see a brief increase in winds to near 15 knots over the western waters tonight, in the WAKE of a cold front. No headline are anticipated at this time. Offshore winds (at or below 15 knots) will continue through the end of the week, with high pressure situated west of the region. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH will remain above 35% both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, and thus fire weather concerns are limited. Slightly drier air works into the area for Wednesday, but winds are expected to be light.