AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2012

DISCUSSION...00 UTC surface analysis shows a 1031 MB HIGH centered
across Northwestern Alabama. The PRESSURE GRADIENT across the South
was continuing to relax AS this high pressure area spreads eastward
with winds becoming near CALM across much of the region. With these
lighter winds tonight and clear skies temperatures have plummeted
into the MID and upper 30s across much of the region with a FEW
locations already at the freezing mark by 01z.

Vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis shows the large cold TROUGH that
was in place across the Eastern CONUS now shifting to a position
more across the Canadian Maritimes. SHORTWAVE ridging was spreading
eastward across the Central CONUS and into the Southeast. Some
Pacific MOISTURE was streaming across the Gulf of Mexico and this
has led to the development of an area of CLOUD cover across the
Central Gulf Coast States.

The primary forecast concern tonight again is with the temperatures.
The forecast is complicated by the arrival of some cloud cover from
the west. Model data shows a gradual and slow moistening of the
500-300 mb layer across the southern half of the region by morning
and this would LIKELY serve to limit how far temperatures would drop
overnight. Feel very confident about winds being essentially calm
overnight, so with the very dry and cold airmass that is in place,
temperatures away from the cloud cover should easily be in the lower
20s by morning based on the latest observations and model data. After
watching TEMPERATURE trends over the last couple of hours, have
decided to adjust temperatures up slightly in the Florida Big Bend,
but still keep minimum values in the lower 20s as it is expected the
cloud cover will have some but not much of an effect on temperatures
before SUNRISE. Aside from that adjustment, not additional changes
are planned with the forecast this evening. Have a great NIGHT!

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will are expected to prevail through the
TAF period with mainly light winds. However, mid and upper level
cloudiness appear to be increasing from the southwest well ahead of
the model guidance, but this will be more of a concern to overnight
LOW temperatures than to Aviation concerns.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS will continue to diminish this evening and
into the overnight hours as high pressure moves nearer to the marine
area. Expect low winds and seas to persist into Monday before
increasing again on Tuesday.