DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT
   WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
   STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.  HOWEVER...A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
   PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS
   IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY
   PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED
   SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.
   
   ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
   CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
   THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. 
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
   MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
   CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
   STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
   90 KTS.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
   THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
   THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
   STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
   DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
   EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
   STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
   
   IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
   THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
   AHEAD OF THE LINE.
   
   SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
   SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
   REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.