We’re expecting heavy rain and numerous intense storms to move through our area 2 times on Saturday. The first time will begin around midday and continue through the early part of Saturday evening. The second surge looks to be after 10pm and continuing into early morning Sunday.

The Slight (30%) chance for Severe Storms in our area means we’re concerned about the likelihood of multiple Tornadoes and Damaging winds.

Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued.

Make plans now to keep up with quickly changing weather conditions near you this weekend.

Here’s the latest information from the NWS Severe Storm Center in Oklahoma…

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
   SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
   PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
   LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
   THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
   APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
   WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
   WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
   NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
   VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
   UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
   AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
   THE PERIOD.
   
   ...GULF COASTAL STATES...
   
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
   THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
   PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
   OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
   POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
   PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
   300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
   ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
   
   STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
   WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
   THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
   OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
   SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
   PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
   HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/17/2012