Cloudy and muggy early… With more sunshine than we’ve had over the last few days, we will be close to the record high for Dothan set in 1976… 80 degrees!  With more unseasonably warm days ahead… Here’s the NWS Discussion…

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...updated for dense FOG ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
602 AM EST Wed Feb 29 2012

WIDESPREAD dense fog has developed across portions of the inland big
bend and over most of s/CNTRL ga. AS a result a dense fog advisory
has been issued for these areas until 9 am est for these areas.
expect widespread vsbys one-half mile or below. the fog will slowly
then more rapidly lift after 9 am est.
During the next 24 HRS, a large trough expands from the extreme ERN
Pacific to the West Coast. In response, the deep-layer low over the
NE will lift and weaken across Nrn MS Valley then into the Great
Lakes region tonight with 90kt JET at base crossing OH Valley. In
response, Gulf RIDGE will expand NWD today with rising heights.
South of these troughs/low systems, very fast WSW nearly zonal FLOW
will moves across much of Cntrl and SRN tier states west of Gulf. As
Wrn upper trough swings in wrn states on Thurs, broad and weak
ridging moves across SE region. Trough advances into the Plains on
Fri with strong SHORTWAVE developing out ahead with weak and
weakening ridging over Nrn Gulf.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Surface HIGH PRESSURE is centered over over the MID Atlantic coast
and is ridging southward to FL and then WWD along the Gulf
Coast. Plenty of low level MOISTURE is in place across the region
with DEW points in the upper 50s east to lower 60s west. Looking
UPSTREAM, a low was noted across Srn MN assocd with above Plains
trough. Cold FRONT extended from low SWWD into TX.

During the next 24 hrs, as upper low lifts NEWD, surface REFLECTION
lifts newd and eventually occludes over Srn ONT/New England on
Thurs. Trailing front will cross OH/TN Valleys later today oriented
from Appalachians SWWD THRU Nrn AL/GA by tonight where it becomes
quasi-STNRY. High along East coast shifts into Wrn Atlc with ridge
nudged SWD and across FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, the fast zonal flow
along the Nrn Gulf Coast and an upper ridge over the Gulf will
prevent the front from making much more significant southward
progress. This should keep the best RAIN chances north of the forecast area on Wednesday. Remains of the cold front will edge SWD on Thursday, which may help to spark slightly better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Nrn counties. As above upper trough advances EWD on Fri, wrn tail of front initially lifts nwd as warm front to Nrn AL.
Then, as next and deeper surface low tracks from Srn Plains to Mid
MS Valley then to Great Lakes Fri thru Fri NIGHT, the cold front
dragged back SEWD to just N of CWFA by nighttime. In response, Gulf
ridge retreat ewd. Shortwave will push front across local area SAT
into Sat night for our next weather maker (see long term
discussion).

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)...
It will be unseasonably warm thru the period with MAX TEMPS about 10
degrees above NORMAL and approaching near record levels. With a weak
surface GRADIENT, some sea breeze development is expected each day
which may yield a sprinkle or two and will account for noticeably
cooler coastal temps.

TODAY...lingering areas to widespread dense fog for a FEW hours,
mainly ern third of area. then after fog breaks, temps will soar.
Highs low 70s coast to around 80 inland. No POPS.

record high for Feb 29...Tallahassee (1948) and Tift, 84, Cross
City 82, Headland AL and Albany 80 and Apalachicola and Marianna 76
degrees.

TONIGHT...20% pops SE AL/SW GA  Zero elsewhere. Lows from upper 50s
SE Big Bend, low-mid 60s. fog developing late.

THURSDAY...20% pops SE AL/SW GA  Zero elsewhere. Highs low 70s coast
to around 80 inland. Lows 58-62.

FRIDAY....20% pops SE AL/SW GA  Zero elsewhere. Highs low 70s coast
to low 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
The period begins with a rapidly occluding STORM system across the
Great Lakes with a cold front gradually progressing into the
Southeast. The 29/00z model guidance is in relatively good agreement
with the timing of this system into the Southeast. Both the GFS and
Euro indicate that the primary surface low and attendant upper level
energy will be rapidly shifting northeastward up the Saint Lawrence
River Valley and into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday night. As a
result, it doesn`t appear as though the cold front will come roaring
through Saturday evening into Sunday morning. What little difference
there is between the GFS and Euro is with regard to whether the
frontal boundary develops a wave of low pressure along it while
nearing the area. The Euro solution is slightly more robust with
this feature and accordingly has much better rain chances as the
cold front comes through. One way or the other it does look like
most areas will have a good shot at RAINFALL on Saturday-Saturday
night so will increase pops from the inherited values.

Severe potential with this system is more uncertain. While SHEAR and
surface-based INSTABILITY look to be sufficient for organized severe
weather, the lack of significant HEIGHT falls implies that deep
layer forcing may be lacking with this system, leaving most of the
CONVECTION in a narrow band along the surface frontal boundary. Even
with the meager height falls, there still looks to be enough
potential for severe weather to warrant watching this system closely
over the next couple of days as it nears the area.

Beyond Sunday as the cold front comes through, high pressure will
build across the area at the surface and then gradually aloft.
Primary difference in this period of the forecast is the 29/00z GFS
indicating a very strong surface ridge building across the Mid
Atlantic whereas the Euro keeps the surface high nearly overhead
into Tuesday. Continuity favors the Euro solution here. Temperatures
will initially trend below normal behind the cold front from Sunday
evening into Tuesday with a moderating trend developing by Wednesday
ahead of the next storm system.