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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2012

DISCUSSION...00 UTC surface analysis shows a 1031 MB HIGH centered
across Northwestern Alabama. The PRESSURE GRADIENT across the South
was continuing to relax AS this high pressure area spreads eastward
with winds becoming near CALM across much of the region. With these
lighter winds tonight and clear skies temperatures have plummeted
into the MID and upper 30s across much of the region with a FEW
locations already at the freezing mark by 01z.

Vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis shows the large cold TROUGH that
was in place across the Eastern CONUS now shifting to a position
more across the Canadian Maritimes. SHORTWAVE ridging was spreading
eastward across the Central CONUS and into the Southeast. Some
Pacific MOISTURE was streaming across the Gulf of Mexico and this
has led to the development of an area of CLOUD cover across the
Central Gulf Coast States.

The primary forecast concern tonight again is with the temperatures.
The forecast is complicated by the arrival of some cloud cover from
the west. Model data shows a gradual and slow moistening of the
500-300 mb layer across the southern half of the region by morning
and this would LIKELY serve to limit how far temperatures would drop
overnight. Feel very confident about winds being essentially calm
overnight, so with the very dry and cold airmass that is in place,
temperatures away from the cloud cover should easily be in the lower
20s by morning based on the latest observations and model data. After
watching TEMPERATURE trends over the last couple of hours, have
decided to adjust temperatures up slightly in the Florida Big Bend,
but still keep minimum values in the lower 20s as it is expected the
cloud cover will have some but not much of an effect on temperatures
before SUNRISE. Aside from that adjustment, not additional changes
are planned with the forecast this evening. Have a great NIGHT!

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will are expected to prevail through the
TAF period with mainly light winds. However, mid and upper level
cloudiness appear to be increasing from the southwest well ahead of
the model guidance, but this will be more of a concern to overnight
LOW temperatures than to Aviation concerns.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS will continue to diminish this evening and
into the overnight hours as high pressure moves nearer to the marine
area. Expect low winds and seas to persist into Monday before
increasing again on Tuesday.

WWUS72 KTAE 121848
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
148 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-131400-
/O.UPG.KTAE.HZ.A.0002.120213T0300Z-120213T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.HZ.W.0004.120213T0300Z-120213T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 148 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012 /1248 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012/

Hard Freeze Warning in Effect From 10 PM EST /9 PM Cst/ This Evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM Cst/ Monday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a hard freeze warning, which is in effect from 10 PM EST /9 PM cst/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ monday. the hard freeze watch is no longer in effect.

* timing, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing late this evening and reach hard freeze criteria in the mid 20S early monday morning.

* temperature, minimum temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20S by daybreak sunday away from the immediate coast, except upper teens over the southeast big bend around cross city as well as in other isolated rural locations. total durations of freezing temperatures may be as long as 11 hours across inland areas overnight.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a hard freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures below
26 degrees are imminent or highly likely and are expected to last for at least 2 hours. these conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

WWUS72 KTAE 111936
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URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161-121200-
/O.EXT.KTAE.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120212T0100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HZ.W.0003.120212T0500Z-120212T1400Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HZ.A.0002.120213T0300Z-120213T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE- QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…
SUWANNEE…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN… ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…
LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…
FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…
NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…
NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
236 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012 /136 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012/

Wind Advisory now In Effect Until 8 PM EST /7 PM Cst/ This
Evening…

…hard freeze warning remains in effect from midnight EST /11 pm cst/ tonight to 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ sunday…

…hard freeze watch remains in effect from sunday evening
through monday morning…

* timing, gusty winds will continue this afternoon and diminish this evening.

* winds, sustained 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph during the afternoon and subsiding to 10 mph or less this evening.

* temperature, minimum temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20S by daybreak sunday away from the immediate coast with
total freeze durations of up to 11 hours in southeast alabama and southwest georgia and 8 to 9 hours in florida. another hard freeze is expected sunday night into monday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a hard freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures below
26 degrees are imminent or highly likely and are expected to last for at least 2 hours. these conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 26 to 39 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra
caution. conditions will also be hazardous on area lakes.

&&

WWUS72 KTAE 110717
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URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
217 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161-112100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HZ.W.0003.120212T0500Z-120212T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0003.120211T1600Z-120212T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.HZ.A.0002.120213T0300Z-120213T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE- QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…
SUWANNEE…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN… ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…
LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…
FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…
NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…
NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
217 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012 /117 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012/

Wind Advisory in Effect From 11 AM EST /10 AM Cst/ This
Morning to 11 PM EST /10 PM Cst/ This Evening,
, Hard Freeze Warning in Effect From midnight EST /11 PM Cst/ Tonight to 9 AM EST /8 AM Cst/ Sunday,
, Hard Freeze Watch in Effect From Sunday Evening Through Monday Morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a hard freeze warning, which is in effect from midnight EST /11 PM cst/ tonight to 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ sunday. a wind advisory has also been issued. this wind advisory is in effect from 11 AM EST
/10 AM cst/ this morning to 11 PM EST /10 PM cst/ this evening. in addition, a hard freeze watch has been issued. this hard
freeze watch is in effect from sunday evening through monday morning.

* timing, gusty winds will increase during the late morning hours and remain elevated through the evening.

* winds, sustained 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph during the afternoon and evening subsiding to 10 mph or less after midnight.

* temperature, minimum temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20S by daybreak sunday away from the immediate coast with total freeze durations of up to 11 hours in southeast alabama and southwest georgia and 8 to 9 hours in florida. another hard freeze is expected sunday night into monday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a hard freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures below 26 degrees are imminent or highly likely and are expected to last for at least 2 hours. these conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 26 to 39 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra
caution. conditions will also be hazardous on area lakes.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2012
...Much colder weather arriving this weekend...
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday NIGHT)...

A MID/upper level shortwave trough will pivot rapidly eastward along
the northern Gulf coast. Decent swath of synoptic support/QG forcing
ahead of this energy will overspread the area this evening. This
area of forcing is already supporting a large area of showers across
southern LA/MS. Global and HI-res model consensus agrees that this
area of showers will expand rapidly into our region this evening.
The QG forcing will align with upper level JET energy to support the
highest SHOWER concentration over the southern half of the
area...and especially coastal areas eastward through the SE Big
Bend. These areas are highlighted with high end 70% POPS, and an
argument could easily be made for higher CATEGORICAL PoPs. POP
GRADIENT will decrease to the north down to 40-50% up toward KDHN
and KABY. Still do expect some of the showers to reach this far
north, however some guidance members insist that the main area of
showers will be more broken in nature north of the FL border. Even
across the far south...this will be a high PoP...low QPF event, with
highest RAINFALL amounts LIKELY remaining under 1/4 inch. This will
be a quick hitting event AS the last of the organized showers are
expected to be exiting the Suwannee River Valley/I-75 corridor by
around 09Z. Surface based CAPE is essential NIL, and even elevated
INSTABILITY is lacking. Showalter indices are all positive and will
not include THUNDER mention. Low temperatures in the 40s.

Saturday:
Cold front will quickly pass east of the forecast area Saturday
morning with a much cooler and drier airmass arriving on BREEZY NW
winds. 850mb TEMPS will FALL below 0C over most areas by the end of
the day. Despite the strength of the cold AIR...excellent DIURNAL
mixing in the post-frontal environment will keep things seasonable
for afternoon highs. Looking for highs to RANGE from the lower 50s
north and west of a Dothan to Albany line, and range upward to the
lower 60s over the SE Big Bend zones. As mentioned above it will be
quite breezy for those with outdoor plans. NW winds sustained
between 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 25 mph common.

Saturday Night:
The cold air will arrive quickly with the setting of the sun. At
this time expecting temperatures by SUNRISE on Sunday to be
generally in the upper 20s...with middle 20s possible across the far
north. CURRENT statistical guidance shows lower/middle 20s for
many locations, however, MOS guidance almost always is too low in
these events with respect to the initial ADVECTION FREEZE...and have
taken this BIAS into account. This will only prevent a hard freeze.
Still anticipate a WIDESPREAD freeze even right down to the coast.
Combine these temps with a steady northerly breeze and WIND chill
reading will reach the upper teens to lower 20s. Will continue to
monitor the situation in case a wind chill ADVISORY becomes
necessary for early Sunday morning.

Sunday/Sunday night:
High pressure will settle southeast from the TN valley toward the
forecast area. The airmass in place and less efficient mixing
will result in a cool day. High temps will struggle into the lower
50s by the late afternoon. The close proximity of the high CENTER
will cause any light afternoon winds will go nearly CALM quickly
during the evening. These calm conditions combined with very dry low
levels suggest temps will fall quickly after SUNSET. Expect to see
normally colder areas fall below freezing potentially by late
evening, and SET up a long duration freeze. This appears to be the
night in which hard freeze conditions will be more likely. Low temps
for normally colder areas may drop into the lower 20s...with most
locations away from the immediate coast falling into the middle 20s.
As is usual with radiational cooling...the immediate coast and more
urbanized inland centers (such as downtown Tallahassee) should end
up a FEW degrees warmer, but still below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through next Friday)...
We`ll see another cold day to start the extended period with
possibly another widespread hard freeze Monday morning mainly east
of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers. Surface high pressure will
be centered over the southeast CONUS with nearly zonal FLOW aloft on
Monday. The high will rapidly move east making way for the next low
pressure system that will bring a weak cold front with RAIN chances
to the region on Tuesday. This front will stall over or just south
of our FA late Tuesday/early Wednesday and then lift north as a warm
front Wednesday/Wednesday night as a stronger low pressure system
begins to develop over the southern plains. Showers/thunderstorms
will begin to overspread the region during the Thursday/Thursday
night time frame with the front forecast to push into the CWA on
Friday. After below NORMAL temps for Monday, the rest of the
extended period will have above seasonal temps.

&&

.MARINE
A weak area of low pressure will pass south of the forecast waters
this evening. In the WAKE of this low, winds will increase from the
Northwest later tonight and are forecast to reach advisory levels
Saturday morning. These advisory level conditions will continue
through Sunday morning. A period of GALE force gusts is possible
Saturday night and this potential will need to be monitored closely.
Winds and SEAS will decrease below headline criteria later Sunday
into the early portion of next week.

&&

.Aviation (through 18Z SAT)...Although VFR conditions should prevail
through the bulk of this TAF period, gradually lowering Vfr level
cigs will predominate the FCST for the remainder of this afternoon
and throughout much of the evening hours. Widespread light rain is
also expected to develop from SW to NE across the terminals, with
possible periods of moderate rain and MVFR level VIS this evening at
TLH, ECP, and VLD. Although some VFR level clouds could linger
behind the cold front for a while, Saturday should be dominated by
clearing skies, much cooler temps, and very gusty NW winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler and drier air will be building in from the northwest on
Saturday on gusty Northwest winds. This very dry air combined with
sustained 15 mph or greater winds and Dispersions greater than 75
will result in a Red Flag WARNING for all of the Florida Big Bend
and Panhandle on Saturday. However, even though relative HUMIDITY
values will be extremely low over the SAME area on Sunday, will hold
off on a Fire Weather WATCH until future ERC values can be
determined. Over Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South Central
Georgia, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for expected
long durations of relative humidity below 25 percent.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2012


.SYNOPSIS...
07Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis continues to show a rather
complex upper level pattern across the CONUS this morning. REX block
configuration from 24 hours ago over the western portion of the
continent has broken down, with the closed upper LOW over Colorado
now having opened up and become progressive. This TROUGH and any
significant associated forcing will pass north of our region today.
We continue to see an ACTIVE southern stream FLOW with abundant
MID/upper level energy in the form of HIGH level CIRRUS streaming
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, forecast area resides in a region of weak GRADIENT
between 1035mb high PRESSURE over the central Plains, and a surface
trough in place across the southern FL Peninsula/FL Straits.
Weak/subtle cold FRONT is analyzed slowly approaching our area
across AL. This front is better defined above the surface, but
should at least result in a somewhat drier low level airmass in its
WAKE over the next couple of days. Regional radars do show a FEW
showers up into central AL/Northern GA in closer proximity to the
passing synoptic forcing. However AS mentioned above, this
sufficient forcing will remain to our north and keep SHOWER chances
out of our forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Today,
Mid/Upper level SHORTWAVE passes from the TN valley this morning to
the mid-Atlantic coast this evening. Atmospheric momentum associated
with this energy will be enough to pass a weak cold frontal boundary
through the forecast area by mid/late afternoon. This will be an
uneventful frontal passage with only some clouds and a slight WIND
shift to mark its arrival. Overall, will be a pleasant February day
with filtered sunshine and high temperatures ranging from the upper
60s north to the lower 70s south.

Tonight,
Dry and somewhat cooler NIGHT upcoming to what has been experienced
lately. The drier airmass will allow temperatures to FALL into the
upper 30s to lower 40s for much of the area. The high CENTER will
still be well to our NW keeping the gradient fairly tight. With this
in mind, don`t anticipate much CHANCE of any normally sheltered
areas de-coupling and getting much colder than is currently
forecast. Therefore, temperatures and dewpoint depressions should
stay above the level of a FROST threat.

Thursday/Thursday night,
Little change in the forecast with any significant northern stream
energy remaining well to our north. High level clouds will LIKELY be
on the increase once again by the end of the day as southern stream
JET energy re-develops along the northern Gulf Coast. Plenty of dry
AIR in the lower levels will keep RAIN out of our forecast with high
TEMPS reaching up into the 60s. Surface ridging will SET up just to
our north Thursday night which will bring the potential for some mid
30s temps inland, and a resulting frost potential. However, some
uncertainly remains regarding the amount of mid/high level clouds
that will be overspreading the area. Impressive southern stream jet
energy suggest we will see the cirrus. Even high level cloudiness
can sometimes disrupt the radiative process and help keep temps
warmer than expected. This portion of the forecast will need to be
monitored closely for those with sensitive outdoor vegetation.

Friday,
Uncertainly is beginning to increase by the end of Friday with
regards to energy propagating across the southern Plains and
northern Gulf coast. GFS is showing a scenario in which much of this
energy is absorbed by a large cut-off low near the California Baja
region. ECMWF/Canadian are much more aggressive, and allow the
majority of this shortwave energy to bypass the upper low into the
southern Plains. These models offer solutions that are potentially
wetter for our western zones by Friday evening, and for all of our
zones Friday night. Tough call on this one, but out of respect for
the ECMWF will add slight chance POPS to the GRIDS beginning Friday
afternoon in the far west, and for all zones Friday night. Should
the ECMWF/Canadian solution be the correct trend, then these rain
chances would need to be adjusted upward in future forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
The complex and generally messy large scale pattern is expected to
remain so during the forecast period, while undergoing some
RETROGRESSION, with axis of the MEAN RIDGE over the western U.S.
shifting westward into the eastern Pacific, and the large polar
VORTEX over eastern Canada also evolving westward. The main effect
will be to broaden the mean trough westward across the CONUS,
resulting in a positive tilted trough axis across the Intermountain
West, and a nearly zonal flow eastward across the eastern half of
the country. The southern portion of the stream will remain quite
strong. A series of short waves will drop southward into the mean
trough axis over the Intermountain West, then weaken as they HEAD
rapidly east or northeast across the eastern U.S. As always, the
devil is in the details when it comes to the forecast for he
Tri-State Area. The GFS and Euro continue to diverge predictably
towards the end of the period, in how they handle the short waves
dropping into the mean trough position. The Canadian and EURO are in
better agreement, showing more short wave energy in the southern
stream, which gives me some confidence, and a blend of the two
solutions seems the way to go. Friday night and Saturday short wave
energy will be moving eastward across the eastern U.S. pushing a
cold front well to the south across the southern Florida peninsula,
bringing at least a slight chance of rain, and a SURGE of colder
drier air behind it across the southeast U.S. Temperatures may drop
to near or a little below freezing in some areas on Monday morning.
Then expect a fairly rapid rebound in temperatures by mid week,
along with an increasing chance of rain, as the next short wave
rounds the bottom of the trough and heads northeast. Temperatures
will start out near NORMAL on Saturday, then drop below normal
Sunday and Monday, then trend back to above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE
A weak cold front will cross the forecast area today. The gradient
behind this front will increase and result in near ADVISORY level
northerly winds tonight through Thursday morning. A surface ridge
will slowly build down from the north later Thursday into Friday
which will act to drop winds and SEAS back down below headline
criteria. Another period of cautionary to advisory level northerly
flow looks to develop during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...
VFR conditions  will continue across the Tri-State Area through the
forecast period and beyond, with patches of cirrus occasionally
streaming across the area. Although a drier airmass has spread into
the region, good nighttime cooling will result in temperatures
dropping to near the DEW point temperatures in some areas, allowing
for the formation of some  MIST before daybreak. The mist, in
combination with some lingering SMOKE, will produce patches of MVFR
visibilities primarily across south central Georgia before SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air is spreading across the Tri-State Area, and relative
humidities across inland portions of Florida will drop to at or
below 35 percent for several hours this afternoon, along with
relatively high dispersions. However, dispersions are not expected
to be quite high enough to warrant a Red Flag WATCH or WARNING, and
ERC values will continue relatively low. Thursday will remain dry,
with longer periods of critical relative HUMIDITY values, while
dispersions are expected to be a little lower. However, ERC values
are currently expected to remain below critical levels, so while
conditions for Thursday afternoon should be closely monitored, there
are no fire weather concerns at this time.


Clouds at 12:45 Tuesday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my Droid.

Our good friend, Bobby Thompson, from Blue Bell Ice Cream, stopped by the Weather Center today and dropped off a couple of gallons to help us celebrate National Weatherperson’s Day!

Oscar’s choice was “The Great Divide” (Vanilla/Chocolate) and I went with Strawberries and Vanilla!

Thanks for thinking of us, Bobby!

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2012

SHORT TERM (Monday through Wednesday night)...Lingering frontal
boundary will washout over the Big Bend on Monday underneath
southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain very warm across
the area, especially south of the front where highs will approach
80 degrees once again. Enough lingering moisture may allow for
ISOLATED convection to develop over the eastern Big Bend during
the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected on Monday.
Primary change for Tuesday will be a lack of POPS over the Big
Bend. Otherwise... TEMPERATURE will remain well above NORMAL for
early February.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through next Sunday)...There are still
significant disagreements between the GFS and Euro on a possible
wave of low pressure in the Gulf for Thursday. The GFS remains the
most aggressive model and shows a cool and rainy day on Thursday.
The Euro has a much more suppressed wave and keeps the area dry.
The Canadian is somewhere in between. The GFS MOS PoPs were
undercut some for Thursday given that it appears to be a wet
outlier. The highest probabilities of RAIN with this system are
over the coastal waters and the southeast Florida big bend. The
models then become out of phase by the end of the period with the
00z GFS showing a deep trough and a blast of cold AIR by the end
of the weekend. The 00z Euro shows weak upper level ridging around
this time with no cold air. The GFS ENSEMBLES show a lot of spread
in the pattern by the end of the period, so temperatures were kept
at moderate levels and above MOS guidance given the GFS`s rather
extreme solution compared to other guidance.


&&

.AVIATION (Through 18z Monday)...AS DIURNAL mixing continues and
the boundary layer deepens, ceilings should continue to jump back
up into the VFR RANGE over most of the area during the afternoon.
MVFR possible around some iso-sctd showers and storms. VCTS added
at TLH and VLD prior to 22z, with some SHRA mentioned at VLD too
as it looks like rain would be most likely at that terminal. Low
clouds may settle back in overnight, and we could see a return to
MVFR through MID-morning Monday at most of the terminals.


&&

.MARINE...Expect to see a brief increase in winds to near 15
knots over the western waters tonight, in the WAKE of a cold
front. No headline are anticipated at this time. Offshore winds
(at or below 15 knots) will continue through the end of the week,
with high pressure situated west of the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH will remain above 35% both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, and thus fire weather concerns are limited.
Slightly drier air works into the area for Wednesday, but winds
are expected to be light.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
705 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a large TROUGH
from WRN Great Lakes SWWD to Desert SW with large upper CUTOFF low
over SW KS driving a WINTER STORM. East of this trough, ridging
dominates SE region. A rather dense MID level 9-11K and CIRRUS
canopy emanating from the trough has overspread this region
moderating temperatures.

Through the weekend, the low is forecast to weaken AS it gets left
behind by the faster northern stream FLOW across the Great Lakes. A
series of upper impulses will move EWD but remain well N of CWA. By
12z Sun it should located near the KS/MO border. The end result of
this is a rather suppressed mid and upper level pattern across the
Southeast.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Analysis shows strong HIGH PRESSURE in place across NC with ridging
down across FL, and a potent low over across the Eastern most
Colorado with cold FRONT SSW to low over SW OK and a warm front SEWD
into NRN Gulf. In between, SLY flow was advecting a good amount of
Gulf MOISTURE NEWD across the Central Gulf States with a more
modified airmass in place across our region.

Overnight, high pressure will move ESE into the Wrn ATLC allowing
the weak warm front to lift north  As a result, local winds shift to
a more sly component allowing more low level moisture to lift
northward ahead of the next storm system and produce some showers
and possibly some FOG. However, with high ridging SWD local
winds will remain above NORMAL. Warm front will lift further NWD on
Saturday with rain shutting off from S-N. High will shift further
SEWD ahead of next cold front with a better CHANCE of fog SAT NIGHT.

Above low will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH SRN MO Sat morn then to KY/TN in the EVE to
further weaken over mid-ATLC states on Sun. Assocd cold front will
weaken and extend from Srn MO SWWD to TX Sat morn then, front will
move into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Expect cloudy skis,
high HUMIDITY and mild temps ahead of front in warm sector. Absent
upper level support, WIDESPREAD SHOWER activity is not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY). Expect lows
mid 50s inland to around 60 at coast. Showers weakening this eve as
they run into drier AIR s of warm front boundary so lowered POPS,
especially east of Apalachicola River. Sharp 50-20% NW-SE rain POP
GRADIENT decreasing to 40-0% after 06z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
evening despite periodic showers between KDHN and KABY. After
midnight, a trend toward higher areal coverage of MVFR cigs/VIS will
begin and have all terminals with a period of MVFR restrictions
during the later night hours into the first FEW daylight hours of
Saturday. It is not out of the question to see a few brief periods
of IFR, however confidence is not high enough in these restrictions
to include with this TAF package. CIGS/VIS will lift back above VFR
levels by midday Saturday and through the afternoon hours. Have
added a prob30 grouping for a "pop up" shower or storm during the
afternoon hours around KDHN and KABY.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS are expected to remain elevated tonight as
strong high pressure remains in place north of the region across the
Mid Atlantic States. As the RIDGE moves eastward into the Atlantic,
winds and seas will diminish by Saturday Night with relatively low
winds and seas remaining in place throughout the remainder of the
weekend. A cold front will move across the waters Sunday Night
resulting in a slight increase in offshore winds.

 

 

My good friend – local entrepreneur and ChordBuddy inventor - Travis Perry, will appear tonight on ABC’s “Shark Tank” at 7 pm.

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Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil told people to prepare for six more weeks of winter on Thursday, making him the minority opinion among his groundhog brethren who seem to think that spring is coming early.

Phil’s “prediction” came as he emerged from his lair to “see” his shadow on Gobbler’s Knob, a tiny hill in the town for which he’s named about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

Yet groundhogs in at least five other states — West Virginia’s French Creek Freddie, Georgia’s Gen. Beauregard Lee, Michigan’s Woody the Woodchuck, Ohio’s Buckeye Chuck and New York’s Staten Island Chuck (full name: Charles G. Hogg) — did not see their shadows. Nor did Ontario’s Wiarton Willie or Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam.

The Groundhog Day celebration is rooted in a German superstition that says if a hibernating animal casts a shadow on Feb. 2, the Christian holiday of Candlemas, winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says, spring will come early.

Phil has now seen his shadow 100 times and hasn’t seen it just 16 times since 1886. 

- Associated Press

WWUS72 KTAE 020939
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>017-026-027-108-112-114-115-127-GAZ120>126- 142>145-155>157-021400-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FG.Y.0007.120202T1000Z-120202T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL WAKULLA-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…
FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN… ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…
LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT… NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO 439 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012 /339 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012/

Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 9 AM EST /8 AM Cst/ This
Morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ this morning.

* visibility, around one quarter mile in spots.

* impacts, limited visibility may cause hazardous driving
conditions in spots. additionally, motorists should expect
sudden reductions in visibility around fog.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The 16 UTC regional surface analysis showed a very weak, 1022 MB
spot LOW along the southeast LA coast and a slow-moving frontal
system from the IN-KY border to north TX. Vapor imagery and upper
AIR data showed a TROUGH propagating east out of the the Central
Plains, with moist southwest FLOW (and areas of RAIN) ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday) Recent RADAR/satellite trends indicated
that rain (briefly heavier) was moving into southeast AL and the
eastern FL Panhandle from the west. This rain will slowly spread
eastward tonight, but the forcing for it will be weakening so we
also expect the rain coverage and intensity to be diminishing. Our
QPF for this afternoon through Thursday morning ranges from half an inch
(west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers) to a quarter of an
inch or less east. There may be enough INSTABILITY and lift for a
FEW thunderstorms through this evening, but thunderstorms will
become much less LIKELY later tonight. Although the 0-6 km
vertical WIND SHEAR magnitudes would support some STORM
organization/UPDRAFT ROTATION, the poor instability and weakening
lift make severe storms unlikely. Most of the rain will end
Thursday morning, but the proximity of a QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
(which will become a warm front lifting northward Friday NIGHT)
warrant a small CHANCE of rain for Thursday afternoon. Rain
chances will increase modestly again by Friday afternoon, mainly
over our north and western zones (around Dothan and Albany).
Temperatures will remain well above average.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday) It looks like the
pattern will have fairly low predictability during the long RANGE
period. Both the 01/00z GFS and 01/00z Euro develop a rex block over
the central U.S. with a large 500 mb closed low south of an upper
level RIDGE. The closed low eventually opens up into a trough and
moves eastward, but the models differ on the details of when this
occurs. At the surface, broad southeast to south low level flow
ahead of the eventual approach of a cold front may keep a low end
chance of showers in the area through the weekend. Forcing and
instability for thunderstorms looks fairly weak, although an
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM is possible, mainly during the daylight hours.
The timing of the frontal passage is quite unclear at the moment
with the 01/00z GFS favoring a Sunday afternoon passage and the
01/00z Euro favoring more of a Tuesday passage. AS a result, a 20-30
POP was kept in the forecast through Tuesday morning over most of
the area to account for the timing uncertainty. Unfortunately, the
TEMPERATURE forecast also becomes more uncertain for late in the
weekend and early next week due to the timing differences. The raw
GFS is about 10-15 degrees cooler than the raw Euro on the highs for
Monday and Tuesday due to the GFS`s earlier frontal passage.
Curiously though, the GFS MOS HIGH temperature output lines up quite
nicely with the raw Euro (perhaps due to its trend towards
CLIMATOLOGY at this time range), and as a result we were able to use
the GFS MOS temperatures in the official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions at the terminals will slowly deteriorate throughout
the evening hours as showers spread eastward. Expect MVFR
conditions to arrive at DHN before SUNSET and then ECP shortly
thereafter. Expect WIDESPREAD MVFR conditions at all sites by
midnight with a potentially larger area of IFR conditions at
DHN/ABY before SUNRISE on Thursday. Expect conditions to improve
by 15z, but MVFR conditions should linger through the end of the
TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and SEAS will decline quickly this evening, followed by a
period of low winds and seas until Thursday night and Friday, when
winds and seas may increase to ADVISORY levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns as low level MOISTURE will be plentiful throughout
the period.

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